Olympic Predictions

Besides making the US team on both breaststrokes, I predict that Beard could make it on the 200 IM. She went a 2:13 in the 200 IM, and only one other American in the past 2 seasons swam a 2:12. As for breaststroke men, more are going to be under 1:00 in the finals this time. And Hopefully, more women will break the minute barrier in 100 meter back, its similar to the way it was in 100 meter fly about 15 years ago when only a handful of women broke that the mintue barrier and Mary T did the incredible 57.8 in the early 1980's.

This has nothing to do with predictions but one of the top age group swimmers in my area had some reservations about the olympics concerning security. Greece is a small country and its near Turkey and other countries in Western Asia. There is a greater possibly of terrorist threats. Anyway, the swimmer decided that she is going to olympic trails since the olympics are the most important event. But hopefully, nothing like what happen in Munich will happen there when the Jewish athletes were killed.

I think that your winning time predictions are a little off. I really doubt that anyone goes a 1:53.0 in the 200 back in the next 10 years. Anyhow, I do see him winning 8 medlas, and probably 7 golds. The US should win all 3 relays (yes even the 800) and I expect Phelps to be on all of the relays. The 2 IM races are just about locks, so that puts the medal count at 5. The 200 fly should be no problem (6). It is the rest of the events that I question. --side bar -- It is not inconceivable that Phelps win less Gold medals that Ian Crocker, here's why: People are going to be REALLY surprised when Crocker wins the 50, and 100 free at the trials, but believe me he will. He will probably smash the world record in the 50. I also expect Crocker to be the difference make in the 800 free relay. Crocker is actually the best swimmer in the world right now, but he will lay "low" until the Olympic Trials (Word on the street is that he won't taper for NCAA's but that was only heard from a cousin of a friend of a brother if you know what I mean). I also think that Crocker is just about a lock to win the 100 fly at the Olympics. Here is why: lately Crocker has been turning in UNBELIEVABLE times for Texas. He split a 20.00 in the 50 fly, went a 19.41 in the 50 free and gone a 45.4 on a relay. And (this is not rumor) he has gone a 52 in the 100 meter fly (LC) multiple times in practice. Something changed the day he beat Phelps in the 100 fly, and everyone who trains with him knows it. --end of side bar -- So Phelps I think Phelps has an equal shot at winning the 100 fly as he does the 200 back or 200 free. PS: Crocker will also mess things up because Phelps will not be on the 400 medly relay in finals unless 1) he beats crocker in the 100 fly 2) he wins the 100 back (has to be on his mind) 3) he beats Lezak/hall/ervin/walker/??? in the 100 free.

Thanks Left for getting the pot to simmer. Crocker. (First, disclosure as a swimmer from NE I remember him as the skinny kid who set the NAG 200 free record and followed his career with interest). As I stated above, this is Phelps greatest challenge. I think Phelps has a BETTER chance of defeating Peirsol in the 200 back then Crocker in the 100 fly. I think technically backstroke is Phelps best stroke and the 200 the right distance. I don't see him swimming a 1:53 but he will be 1:54 mid or low. Not sure that he can compete in the 100 back this time around but in 2008 wouldn't be surprised if we saw him swim 100/200 free, back and fly and win all six. That's assuming that he is still focused 100% on swimming. US win the 800 free relay. I'd love it see it but unless Ian is taken up the 200 as a serious event, and if he does I'll be ever grateful to Eddie Reese, I don't see it. No one else on the horizon, except for Phelps and Croker has the potential to keep the US competitive with the Aussies. (Is Josh Davis still seriously training for the 200?). I do think that Phelps will swim the 4 X 100 free relay but if Crocker beats him the 100 fly he's out of the relay because I'd be surprised if he makes the 100 back. So...predictions..Phelps 2 silver (100 fly, 800 free relay) and 5 golds (200 fly, 200 im, 400 im, 200 back, 400 free relay-I do believe that Crocker will put the US over the top in that relay and Phelps will be one of the four). Even if Crocker goes for the 200 free relay that still puts Phelps at 6 golds and not Spitz's 7. So.. Crocker. 100 free/100 fly/400 free relay/400 medley relay/800 free relay...I don't see him getting more gold medals than Phelps. The 50 is a crap shoot and the 200 seems to me that Thorpe will be loaded for bear in that race and will be very tough to beat (1:43 anyone?).

In order for the US to win the 800 free relay, they need two 1:45 mids (Phelps lead off and Uhh crap, and a relay split from KKeller) and two 1:47.0 relay splits: Crocker and either Dusing or J Davis. That will give the relay a 7:05. The Ausies will not beat that, even with a 1:43 from Thorpe. They only have two guys who can go under 1:48 now. Klim MAY be able to crank out a 1:46 but I doubt it. He was struggling to find that kind of swim before the injury because he wanted to be a sprinter.. Keep in mind, crocker went a 1:49 when he was 16. Believe me this is ON HIS MIND. He trains with J Davis and Dusing and they are planning on winning the relay. Just food for thought. The 50 free will be a crap shoot. Popov and Hall will be saying, "Shoot, Crocker just kicked the crap out of me"

Great thread going here. How about a 4 x 200 free of Phelphs leading off with a 1:45.5 Peirsol with a 1:47.0 and possible 1:46.5 KKeller, or Dusing with a 1:47+ J Davis anchoring with a 1:45.8 ( he can do it on a relay) I think Josh is our best relay swimmer ever. The 100 fly used to be our weakest event, from 1990 to 2000. The aussies always had someone at least one second better. Made the relay a tough event, easy now as we should have a 2 second lead or more going into the freestyle. Now it is a strong event for USA, the two fastest times ever. No one in the USA would mind if Crocker beats Phelphs in the fly, as long as he sets a new world record and beats everyone else. It is crazy to predict a 50.5, used to be no-one went out as fast as 24.0, that means coming back in 26.5. That is almost negative splitting, considering a start is worth 2 seconds over a pushoff. Still Crocker did 50.9, and it will take faster than that to beat a rested Phelphs. So I am sticking with the 50.5. No one has mentioned the 4:04 IM, that time is so mind boggleing, the splits are so fast. He is going to have to be 1:54 or better at the 200 mark, do a 1:08-10 in the breaststroke. Used to be a 1:12 was a great *** spilt for the 400 IM. Now the 200 back is a tough race, all Peirsol is a world record holder. But he will have to break his own record to get second to Phelphs. As much as I would live to see Lenny in the backstroke, I don't think it will happen. The other two are just too fast. If Phelphs wind this, it will be sub 1:54. Every time he swims this event he drops two seconds. This could be his best event.

Keller is the grestest relay swimmer ever (well not really) To wit: He is the only person to ever split a 1:32 in a 200 yd freestyle. And he has the fastest relay split in long course meters ever by an American (1:45.99 - this summer at world champs). Some guys just get up for relays, Keller is one of those guys.

Ladies & Gentlemen, If the U.S. wins the medley relay, why wouldn't both Crocker and Phelps win a gold? I am not totally hip to how people do prelims and finals at big meets like the Olympics, but doesn't the #2 flyer swim the prelim heat, and the #1 the final? And, don't the prelim swimmers also win the same medal as the finalists? Yes, yes, if you want to be a purist, only one of them gets to swim the finals, and so you could argue only 1 really "won" the medal, but don't they both take home the same hardware? Actually, now that I think of it, why would the U.S. team even consider using EITHER Phelps or Crocker in the prelims of any relay if they are chasing Mark Spitz? Never mind... As far as the U.S. winning the men's medley relay, I remind everyone that there are several countries in the world capable of pulling themselves off of the deck and challenging the U.S. Remember 1996 when the Russians were a moral lock in the medley, and we bushwacked 'em? Also, we still have the Omega timing system, which may DQ the U.S. relay team when it's microchips tell it that the U.S. breaststroker left 5 seconds before the start of the race. (Will someone from FINA please tell me why we are still using that chicken-choking system when in the last 4 years it has had two major pratfalls in the 800 free relay of a major championship.) Matt

The guy who swims in prelims WILL be awarded a gold medal, but it would probably be viewed as tainted if it somehow managed to be Phelps 7 gold. Now for grins let's talk about someone beating the US in the medly. Here is how it could happen: Weapons of Mass Destruction ARE found in IRAQ and the end of the world is again in question. Another of Hussein's sons takes over IRAQ and takes over the rest of the world, sans the US. Alas the Olmpics are not cancelled but instead it is the US vs IRAQ in everyevent - with IRAQ having all of the elite atheletes in the world. In the Men's 400 medly relay, the leadoff leg is Matt Welsh, formerly of AUS vs Piersol of the US. THe US has a .2 second of a lead going into breastoke. The breastroke leg is Hanson or Moses vs either Sludnov or Kitajima (depending on who is swimming better for either team). The world team takes the lead by .2 at most. The fly leg is coming up though, and the US has a decided advantage. It's Mike Phelps vs Serdinov of the Ukraine. Phelps beats his counterpart by .5 and now has a .3 second lead. Anchoring the relay for the US is Ian Crocker (this will be the relay for the US - I don't know why it didn't occur to me earlier) and he is swimming against PVDH. VDH the former world record holder gets dusted by the current WRH - crocker and the US wins by over a half second. Okay okay, even though I know that Crocker WILL be the best 100 freestyler he hasn't acheived that status yet, so I will give the world team the victory probably by a half second. But everyone knows that IRAQ doesn't have WMD so this scenario is impossible. The false start could happen though, but really no country can match up to the US.

What about the women, I think that Natalie could win the 100 meter back if she gets back in the form she was in 2002. The 100 meter fly she has Inky and Jenny and other swimmers. The same goes for the 100 meter free. One event I think she would be good at is 200 meter back but she seems to not want to do it that often. Anyways, I predict Thompson at least a few more relay medals along with maybe an individual one. Its going to be a while until another swimmer has that many olympic medals.