Lets have some real fun, Olympic predictions. I am starting with the men.
Phelps could win: My predictions for winning times:
100 fly 50.5
200 fly 1:52.5
200 backstroke 1:53.0
200 IM 1:54.0
400 IM 4:04.0
Medley relay USA
I have been following his improvement in breaststroke, he could also be world class in that stroke one day. A couple of 400 IMers are world class in the 200 ***, 2:12 or better. Phelps no longer looses ground to them
Phelps could also swim the 200 free, probably go 1:45.3 but I doubt that would win.
Also the 200 breaststroke will take a 2:07 to win There will be 3 swimmers below 2:10.
The 100 breaststroke will probably go at 58.2, but Moses has a 57.5 in him. All depends on how well he swims. There are at least 5 swimmers who could win the 100. Hardest thing in the world is to swim great on just one day out of many years of training.
Any more predictions from others? I am sure Swim Magazine will have their predictions out soon.
Women, the only prediction I have is the 200 breaststroke:
Amanda at 2:21.2 She is race hardened, she can swim well on any day of the week, any week. World Cup has moved her to another level.
Former Member
See my Olympic predictions under "Thorpe" thread.
The ESPN article on Phelps was interesting. No weights to date and the fact that he tests for very low lactic acid after world class races (5 versus the more typical, for worldclass swimmers, 10 to 15). This "explains" his ability to quickly recover from his racers..and I though it was because he was young!
My predictions for Amanda Beard: a gold or silver in the 200 meter *** and a silver or bronze in the 100 meter *** and maybe a bronze in the 200 Meter IM. The last is a big if but in a world cup she was just a 1.7 behind urkaine lady whose name I can't spell off hand in the 200 meter IM.
400 free in 1:56.5, WOW thats fast. You meant 200:D The 200 free has been soft for a LONG time. Women are doing 2 seconds faster in the 100 and 3 seconds faster in the 100 fly, yet are just one second faster in the 200 free.
The 100 and 200 womens back are also soft, if Coughlin swims to her potential she can set reconds that will last 10 years. You can never use NCAA times to judge great swimmers during Olympic years. There is no glory left for Natalie at NCAAs, I am sure she is training for the Olympics.
Keller the greatest relay swimmer ever? Hyperbole from down in Texas. Seriously doubt that Peirsol will swim the 200 free unless he plans on training for it. Very different race than the 200 back and he'll have his hands full in his backstroke races.
The Australians (and South Africans) will be force in the free relays. US should prevail in the 4 X 100 UNLESS S.A. finds one more sprinter. The Australians should prevail in the 800 free relay unless the US can find one more swimmer capable of 1:46 with a flat start. I will grant Lefty that if Crocker is really focused on the 200 he might be the difference maker in this race. I'll believe when I see him racing in the 200 free at Olympic Trials.
Challenge to US in the medley relay? Seems hard to imagine that the US wouldn't win this one and pretty hard to see how the Russians could topple them without someone young showing up big in the back and fly. The Aussies on the other hand do have guys who can crank a pretty back, fly and free but...a combo of Peirsol, Moses, Phelps and Crocker (I tend to agree with Lefty that Ian should smoke the competition in the 100 free) seems pretty much unbeatable. New world record...biggest margin of victory in 3o+ years?
There's not much buzz around Coughlin these days. She had a sub-par year racing in 2003..for her. NCAAs off her earlier high standards, Duel in the Pool didn't look good in any of her races and World Champs a no show. Is she burned out...injured...or has some other kind of impairment? Legitimate questions given her fall-off from 2001/2002. In any case she will swim the 100/200 back (no need to pass on the 200 since she's still the best in the world) 100 free/100 fly and all three relays but only if she's back to previous form.
I am not sure who the greatest relay swimmer ever is, but Keller makes the short list. It is not hyperbole that he has both the fastest 200 yard and 200 meter relay split all time for an American. The US coaches, whose opinion is all that really matter, also know this and that is why he 1) anchored the US relay at last summer World Champs and 2) why he swam at night for the US at the '00 games.
Piersol, swam the 200 free on last summers 800 free relay. He has got to atleast be considered a contender for the 3/4 spot. Keep in mind last summer he was 19 years old. 1:47.0 seems quite possible.
