I will go out on a limb and say that we will see at least one of the two (Crocker or Phelps) under 50 for the first time. Maybe even both, but I predict Phelps will take it......
Any others?
Former Member
Well, either way I'll be happy. I think they are both very deserving athletes who happen to have a lot of respect for each other. They both thrive off of this rivalry so regardless of who wins, it will only spur the other on to take that title back.
It hurts me, too, to bet against a Longhorn.
I had to say that so John and Ande would keep their guns holstered.
This is going to be the race of the meet. A lot of pressure is going to be put on both swimmers. For Ian Crocker, he is trying to do what only a handful of swimmers have done and that is winning 3 straight 100 Fly World Championships in the same event. He is the World Record holder and no one has come close to his :50.40 and no one has gone under :51.00 but Michael is close to it at :51.25 but that was before this meet and before his weight lifting and improvement in speed. Ian is 3 wins and 3 loses in the rivalry. He had big wins over Phelps in 2003 Barcelona, 2004 Long Beach, and 2005 Montreal. However Phelps got the big win in 2004 Athens to go along with wins at the 2005 World Championship Trials in Indy and the recent 2006 Nationals last August. We, unfortunately did not get to see a race at Pan Pacs. So it will come down to who is swimming better.
A lot of pressure will be on Phelps because he most likely will be going for the most Gold Medals in a World Championship and by that time he will have a chance to get 8 of them. We have not seen Crocker yet so we really don't know what he is capable of. I know back in 2004, when he was sick we all thought he did not have a chance against Phelps and he ended up losing, but not my much at all and he took his revenge the next year by beating Phelps badly (:50.40 to :51.65). Because of the way Phelps is swimming I know a lot of people think he will win but remember the 2003 Worlds in Barcelona when no one gave Ian Crocker a chance and he beat Phelps and Phelps had the meet of his life with 5 World Records. Of course he could match that the way he is swimming here and this might be the event he ties or surpasses the 5 World Records in one meet. He will have to beat Ian Crocker to do it and that will not be easy.
My pick for this race will come down to strategy. Michael Phelps best split going out in the 100 is :24.24 and if he is like :23.7 or better than I would say he would be the favorite judging from what he has done in his races up until now and how he has improved with the turns and the back half of the race. For Ian Crocker to win he has to be out in :23.50 or better and have a great start and great turn. Phelps has improved his starts so Ian does not have that advantage that he used to have. Ian also has great underwater and SDK and though they might not be as good as Phelps, he does not lose that as an advantage like swimmers in the 200 Free and 200 Fly, where Phelps superior turns are so noticeable to those swimmers.
To win, Ian will have to rely on speed. The speed he is capable of from past swims like the 2004 NCAA Championships SCM 100 Meter Free and Fly, where he set the World Records. I believe he has that speed judging from the :41.6 and 44 high in the free and fly he did recently at the SCY Championships in Austin. He is going to have to swim like that and like he did in Montreal and if he does, I pick him to win the race. If he is out slower than :23.7 and if he is like :24 low and ahead by .03 at the 50 mark, I am afraid he will be mowed down by Phelps. It will be interesting to see how each does in the semi finals.
This should be a great race--I would vote with the prognosticators that have Crocker a little off his best time based on current form and Phelps going a PR--and either guy could win.
The race I would like to see would be Phelps in the 200 Back against Piersol. Phelps is dropping his 200 times between .9 and 1.6 seconds(approx. based on his fly/free/im). While Piersol has always beaten him before in the 200 Back, if Phelps improves that much, he's right there with Piersol.
When you are counting accomplishments for being the mythical greatest swimmer ever, Phelps and Spitz both have set world records in 5 events. Phelps is going to have more Olympic golds and more Olympic teams after Beijing. Phelps has a wider range of record setting events--IM, Free and Fly versus Free and Fly only. If Phelps were to win a major championship in Backstroke, I think its game, set and match to Phelps if he never swims another race after Beijing.
Definitely faster, but greater… let’s see how he does in Beijing and London and then in Masters. If he can beat Scott Lautman 200 fly record in the 50-54 age group, then he will be great!
We have not seen Crocker yet so we really don't know what he is capable of. posted by Skip Thompson
We have too seen Crocker. He got second to Rolando Shoeman in the 50 fly and was several tenths of a second off of his best time. He also lost by around 3 tenths of a second to Shoeman as well.....So to me this makes me think Phelps has the edge based on current meet performances....but its not enough to say that Crocker couldn't bounce back and have an awesome record breaking 100 fly. Also remember that Phelps is more of a 200 swimmer than a 100 swimmer...(even if his sprints are faster too). My point is that just becuase Phelps dropps 1.8 seconds in a 200 fly does not necessarily mean he is going to drop 0.9 seconds in a 100 fly. He dropped a little over 0.6 seconds from his best 100 free leading off the 400 free relay....He droped almost 2 seconds off of his best 200 free (I think??). So he did drop a significant amount of time off of his 100 free (Don't get me wrong)....but I don't think it was as much as half of the amount of time that he dropped off of his 200 free (hopefully you see my point? LOL!). So I am going to use this same reasoning to say that he will drop around 0.6 - 0.8 seconds off of his best 100 fly time. So I think Phelps will go somewhere in the 50.4 - 50.6 range in his 100 fly based on this analysis. Of course this is just a guess I admit....(but its not a completely arbitrary guess IMO). As far as Crocker goes:.....based on his 50 fly race earlier this week only (where he was off of his best time by around 0.3 seconds), I am going to guess that he will be off of his world record by around 0.3 - 0.8 seconds...So I think he will go somewhere between 50.7 to 51.2 in his 100 fly....So I predict Phelps will win and be very close to the WR (or just under the WR) and Crocker will be around 0.3 - 0.8 seconds behind Phelps. This is my "official" prediction...(like anyone really cares right LOL!!):rofl:
Newmastersswimmer
Yhe other thing helping Phelps that day is he is only swimming the 100 Fly and 200 Free on the relay!!!! Easy day for him!
Piece of cake...can of corn.
Saw this on Yahoo News...thought I would share
By PAUL NEWBERRY, AP National Writer
On Ian's best day, he's very, very hard to beat," said another American star, backstroker Aaron Peirsol. "Yeah, Michael is getting faster. But no one is faster than Ian. Mike comes home well. So can Ian. It's going to be a good race. I know they are looking forward to it, both of them. Nobody is giving it to anybody yet."
Pressed for a prediction, Peirsol hemmed and hawed before declaring, "I hope they tie."
Here's a link to the article..
sports.yahoo.com/.../news
He is already great...no question about it. It is quite an accomplishment to claim stake to one WR time but to hold several and to continue breaking your own is something else entirely.
