100 Fly Predictions

It hurts me, too, to bet against a Longhorn. I had to say that so John and Ande would keep their guns holstered. This is going to be the race of the meet. A lot of pressure is going to be put on both swimmers. For Ian Crocker, he is trying to do what only a handful of swimmers have done and that is winning 3 straight 100 Fly World Championships in the same event. He is the World Record holder and no one has come close to his :50.40 and no one has gone under :51.00 but Michael is close to it at :51.25 but that was before this meet and before his weight lifting and improvement in speed. Ian is 3 wins and 3 loses in the rivalry. He had big wins over Phelps in 2003 Barcelona, 2004 Long Beach, and 2005 Montreal. However Phelps got the big win in 2004 Athens to go along with wins at the 2005 World Championship Trials in Indy and the recent 2006 Nationals last August. We, unfortunately did not get to see a race at Pan Pacs. So it will come down to who is swimming better. A lot of pressure will be on Phelps because he most likely will be going for the most Gold Medals in a World Championship and by that time he will have a chance to get 8 of them. We have not seen Crocker yet so we really don't know what he is capable of. I know back in 2004, when he was sick we all thought he did not have a chance against Phelps and he ended up losing, but not my much at all and he took his revenge the next year by beating Phelps badly (:50.40 to :51.65). Because of the way Phelps is swimming I know a lot of people think he will win but remember the 2003 Worlds in Barcelona when no one gave Ian Crocker a chance and he beat Phelps and Phelps had the meet of his life with 5 World Records. Of course he could match that the way he is swimming here and this might be the event he ties or surpasses the 5 World Records in one meet. He will have to beat Ian Crocker to do it and that will not be easy. My pick for this race will come down to strategy. Michael Phelps best split going out in the 100 is :24.24 and if he is like :23.7 or better than I would say he would be the favorite judging from what he has done in his races up until now and how he has improved with the turns and the back half of the race. For Ian Crocker to win he has to be out in :23.50 or better and have a great start and great turn. Phelps has improved his starts so Ian does not have that advantage that he used to have. Ian also has great underwater and SDK and though they might not be as good as Phelps, he does not lose that as an advantage like swimmers in the 200 Free and 200 Fly, where Phelps superior turns are so noticeable to those swimmers. To win, Ian will have to rely on speed. The speed he is capable of from past swims like the 2004 NCAA Championships SCM 100 Meter Free and Fly, where he set the World Records. I believe he has that speed judging from the :41.6 and 44 high in the free and fly he did recently at the SCY Championships in Austin. He is going to have to swim like that and like he did in Montreal and if he does, I pick him to win the race. If he is out slower than :23.7 and if he is like :24 low and ahead by .03 at the 50 mark, I am afraid he will be mowed down by Phelps. It will be interesting to see how each does in the semi finals.

It hurts me, too, to bet against a Longhorn. I had to say that so John and Ande would keep their guns holstered. This is going to be the race of the meet. A lot of pressure is going to be put on both swimmers. For Ian Crocker, he is trying to do what only a handful of swimmers have done and that is winning 3 straight 100 Fly World Championships in the same event. He is the World Record holder and no one has come close to his :50.40 and no one has gone under :51.00 but Michael is close to it at :51.25 but that was before this meet and before his weight lifting and improvement in speed. Ian is 3 wins and 3 loses in the rivalry. He had big wins over Phelps in 2003 Barcelona, 2004 Long Beach, and 2005 Montreal. However Phelps got the big win in 2004 Athens to go along with wins at the 2005 World Championship Trials in Indy and the recent 2006 Nationals last August. We, unfortunately did not get to see a race at Pan Pacs. So it will come down to who is swimming better. A lot of pressure will be on Phelps because he most likely will be going for the most Gold Medals in a World Championship and by that time he will have a chance to get 8 of them. We have not seen Crocker yet so we really don't know what he is capable of. I know back in 2004, when he was sick we all thought he did not have a chance against Phelps and he ended up losing, but not my much at all and he took his revenge the next year by beating Phelps badly (:50.40 to :51.65). Because of the way Phelps is swimming I know a lot of people think he will win but remember the 2003 Worlds in Barcelona when no one gave Ian Crocker a chance and he beat Phelps and Phelps had the meet of his life with 5 World Records. Of course he could match that the way he is swimming here and this might be the event he ties or surpasses the 5 World Records in one meet. He will have to beat Ian Crocker to do it and that will not be easy. My pick for this race will come down to strategy. Michael Phelps best split going out in the 100 is :24.24 and if he is like :23.7 or better than I would say he would be the favorite judging from what he has done in his races up until now and how he has improved with the turns and the back half of the race. For Ian Crocker to win he has to be out in :23.50 or better and have a great start and great turn. Phelps has improved his starts so Ian does not have that advantage that he used to have. Ian also has great underwater and SDK and though they might not be as good as Phelps, he does not lose that as an advantage like swimmers in the 200 Free and 200 Fly, where Phelps superior turns are so noticeable to those swimmers. To win, Ian will have to rely on speed. The speed he is capable of from past swims like the 2004 NCAA Championships SCM 100 Meter Free and Fly, where he set the World Records. I believe he has that speed judging from the :41.6 and 44 high in the free and fly he did recently at the SCY Championships in Austin. He is going to have to swim like that and like he did in Montreal and if he does, I pick him to win the race. If he is out slower than :23.7 and if he is like :24 low and ahead by .03 at the 50 mark, I am afraid he will be mowed down by Phelps. It will be interesting to see how each does in the semi finals.