At least fivethirtyeight published new content. In honor of Phelps' comeback, swimnews.com re-ran an article from 2008?!? :dunno:
swimnews.com/.../10337
Secondly, it is very interesting to look at his trend lines of winning and average times since 1968 and, in particular what happened from 2008 to 2012. Yes, the times dropped considerably until 2008, but in Michael's marquee events graphed, the times got slower or remained stagnant from 2008 to 2012. That is, the world didn't really grab the bull by the horns when Michael was less than fully in the game at London; they got slower or remained the same.
Seems to me that there was another big change in the men's events from 2008 to 2012...!
I definitely agree with your broad sentiment that (essentially) the author oversimplified his model too much by sticking to a single explanatory variable (age) without considering other significant effects. I do agree with the article that 200 IM is his best bet (if he doesn't do the 200 fly).
Physically I don't think Phelps will be past his peak. I do believe, though, that to have a shot at medaling (much less gold) he'll have to go at least as fast as he went in 2012.
And I am not one of those who thinks that Phelps is shoo-in at all to make the US team particularly if his head isn't fully in the game. Putting aside Jordan's first retirement -- his "baseball sabbatical" -- there is a long list of superstar, can't-miss, once-in-a-lifetime, best-ever athletes who come out of retirement and do significantly less well than before.
If he comes back and gets a medal in any individual event, I think that would be an amazing feat.
Seems to me that there was another big change in the men's events from 2008 to 2012...!Oh yeah. I forgot about the suits ... and you reminded me that I'm to be mad, mad, mad for Michael and Bob Bowman whining about the rubber suits post-2008 (despite having taken full advantage of the latest bodysuit technology in Beijing).
Of course, maybe there's a silver lining.
If Michael does struggle more than he expects to, maybe he and Bowman will flip-flop again and go back to advocating full-body suits for men:agree:
And I am not one of those who thinks that Phelps is shoo-in at all to make the US team particularly if his head isn't fully in the game.
It would surprise me if he swims at 2016 Trials and does not make the team at all. Any other scenario seems possible from only making the team in relays to winning multiple gold medals in Rio.
Physically I don't think Phelps will be past his peak.
At 31 Phelps is past his prime, especially when you look at the events he excels at. A lot of miles on his body at 31, so I am predicting a very selective Olympic program for Phelps. I personally think he will swim the 200Fly, 200IM, 200Free and depending on schedule perhaps the 100fly.
At 31 Phelps is past his prime, especially when you look at the events he excels at. A lot of miles on his body at 31, so I am predicting a very selective Olympic program for Phelps. I personally think he will swim the 200Fly, 200IM, 200Free and depending on schedule perhaps the 100fly.
Another reason to discount the 538 piece. The author seemed to think he would have another go at the 400IM. Certainly the convention wisdom here as well as Michael's own statements suggest it highly unlikely that he will try it.
He didn't win the 200 fly in London primarily because he didn't do the arduous training necessary.Unless he got really motivated to "avenge"that loss,I just don't see him swimming it.
Fivethirtyeight weighs in on Phelps: fivethirtyeight.com/.../
"In each graph, the trend is unsurprising: Swimmers get progressively worse with age."
Boo!
