I am a big Nate Silver fan and recognize he didn't write this article, but it seems to me the author doesn't understand swimming and how the sport has changed, particularly with respect to age.
For example...
538 states, "since 1968, only 17 athletes 31 and older have participated in any of the individual events Phelps would probably attempt (100- and 200-meter butterfly; 200-meter freestyle; and 200- and 400-meter individual medley)"
First off, going back to 1968 is way too far a look back period. In my mind, even going back to 1988 (when I was still in college) is too far a look back period. There were very, very few people who could/would swim beyond their collegiate careers as there was both little to no financial support and the 'culture' just didn't promote it. I think if you looked at the average age of male medalists from 2000 to 2012, you'd see a steady trend upwards.
There’s one other factor working against Phelps: The rest of the field is getting faster. The average time for a finalist and a gold medalist has steadily decreased in each of Phelps’s best events since 1968:
Secondly, it is very interesting to look at his trend lines of winning and average times since 1968 and, in particular what happened from 2008 to 2012. Yes, the times dropped considerably until 2008, but in Michael's marquee events graphed, the times got slower or remained stagnant from 2008 to 2012. That is, the world didn't really grab the bull by the horns when Michael was less than fully in the game at London; they got slower or remained the same.
I'm not saying Michael has it easy or that he'll top the stands. I do agree with the author's conjecture (not supported by data) that ,"Phelps might be a shadow of his former self, but even a diminished version of history’s best swimmer could be a force to be reckoned with." I just don't think his analysis is done well.
... I just don't think his analysis is done well.
I've gotta agree with pwb's points on this one.
Another problem with the interpretation, in many cases the graphs show that swimmers actually get faster with age, just at a decreasing rate. Note that the change is 's just that the drops in time are smaller with advancing age. Even when the swimmers were slower, the change is often so small that it would appear to be lost in the statistical noise.
Furthermore, once you discard the older data (which is pretty meaningless for reasons that pwb noted) several of the remaining data points are skewed by the suit effect.
If he comes back and gets a medal in any individual event, I think that would be an amazing feat.
I'd be willing to bet that Phelps will amaze the world (as he always has) and take a minimum of 5 medals home in 2016, with at least 3 shiny golds. Enhancing the proof of his Poseidon lineage. ;p
I don't know about swept under the rug. Many states have mandatory jail time, as much as 90 days or more, for 2nd time. It might have been 10 years apart, but it's still a 2nd. At a very minimum, he won't have much time for training for a while.
getting caught with marijuana didn't seem to hinder him any. This is just another bump in the road that I'm sure will be quickly swept under the rug.
I disagree. DUI and reckless speeding is taking it to another level. He could have killed someone.
He's almost 30 and acting like he did almost 10 years ago.
Even worse than the lives he placed at risk is the damage this can cause to the watching youth
He's almost 30 and acting like he did almost 10 years ago.
Even worse than the lives he placed at risk is the damage this can cause to the watching youth
He is acting like he did 10 years ago.
usatoday30.usatoday.com/.../2004-11-08-phelps-arrest_x.htm
He posted to Facebook a few minutes ago:
Earlier this morning, I was arrested and charged with DUI, excessive speeding and crossing double lane lines. I understand the severity of my actions and take full responsibility. I know these words may not mean much right now but I’m deeply sorry to everyone I have let down.
He's almost 30 and acting like he did almost 10 years ago.
Even worse than the lives he placed at risk is the damage this can cause to the watching youth
He is acting like he did 10 years ago.
usatoday30.usatoday.com/.../2004-11-08-phelps-arrest_x.htm
