If they go back to true regular suits and Jammers, we may never see the times of the last 2 years again - well at least not until they change the rules again.... I went back to look at the World Rankings for 10th Place and 25th place for the last 7 Olympic years. The Olympic years have always been the fastest years (except of course for 2009 - thanks to you know what). I used the 10th and 25th spot to avoid the "freak" factor and good a good average rate of improvement. Also - I used Freestyle to avoid the impact of rule changes and the emergence of dlphin kicks.
1984 50.36 50.93
1988 50.13 50.54
1992 49.83 50.43
1996 49.74 50.27
2000 49.15 49.67
2004 49.08 49.45
2008 47.83 48.5
2009 47.77 48.27
A couple of things jump out:
- rate of progress has slowed down to maybe 1 to 2 tenth per Olympic cycle
- Big drop in 2000 with arrival of Fastskin suits - about half a second ! and of course a full second and more in 2008.
- In a 1996 suit, I would guess the current times to be just a little slower than the 2000 times.
They are going to have trials next year for the 2011 Worlds - I am guessing a 49.7 or 49.8 will make the US team in the 100 Free ....
...The argument that you need to break a bunch of world records to make a sport watchable is garbage.
This argument is obviously countered by the simple fact that more people are watching swimming and track and field now due to Phelps and Bolt, who, incidentally, regularly break world records.
Yeah, we realize people might cross-dress or even surgically alter their physically sexual characteristics, but unless I'm mistaken you still can't genetically alter one's sex.
For most people, XX maps pretty accurately to "woman" and XY to "man." But the Slate article Chris S. linked to earlier explains several reasons why one's phenotypic sex might not match one's sex-chromosome genotype. It also explains why, for sports such as swimming and track in which the general consensus seems to be that fair competition requires distinguishing "women" from "men," just looking at people naked or looking at their chromosomes might not tell you everything you need to know to assign people to categories.
This argument is obviously countered by the simple fact that more people are watching swimming and track and field now due to Phelps and Bolt, who, incidentally, regularly break world records.
And you can't forget Frederick Bosque, Cesar Cielo, Gemma Spofforth and the countless recent swimming world record holders that have become household names.
...My point was that Bolt and Phelps are one of a generation kind of athletes.
Look at the world record progression for the 200M dash:
1968 Tommie Smith
1979 Pietro Menea
1996 Michael Johnson
2008/09 Usain Bolt
World records are extremely rare in a sport like track where technology doesn't drive the performance.
Phelps would be just as famous with or without the suits. Paul Biederman is known not for breaking two world records, but for beating Phelps (with a tech suit on). World records have already become a non-issue in swimming at this point anyway.
It's pretty amazing to think that Lezak's 46. split in "the Relay" will probably not be duplicated again in the next 20 years without technology. That has to be as Super-Human as Bob Beamon's jump!!
Has anyone else gone 46. as a split??? Is that equivelent to someone doing a 8.9 in the 100m dash?
OK - so far no college kid has been under 20 ... well it's waaaayyy early, but I am taking bets that nobody in college will break 19 seconds this year ...
people were going under 19 before the LZR was ever released. there will be someone under 19. maybe more than one person. i would be willing to agree that FEWER people will be under 19 than last year.
people were going under 19 before the LZR was ever released.
However, I'm fairly confident no one has ever gone under 19 wearing just jammers and that's the situation they will be in this year. Not saying it can't be done, just that it hasn't yet. I think someone like Nathan Adrian is capable of a 19 low, but 18? We'll just have to see. I'll be very impressed if he breaks 19 seconds this season.
Well - Cielo's record is 46.9 - that's probably as fast or faster than Lezak.
As far as sub 19 in the 50 -- I don't think it's going to happen. Bousquet was under in 2005 - Cielo was under in 08, no LZR I believe, but both in full body suits.
We can just put the American record back to Tom Jager and go from there ...
The French swims were mentioned in swimming news - but it did not say if it was short-course or long course. I went to the French federation website and checked it out. They also have the results from the same meet last year - Bousquet was at 21.1 at that time ....
OK - so far no college kid has been under 20 ... well it's waaaayyy early, but I am taking bets that nobody in college will break 19 seconds this year ...
Sub 1:38 looks like a really strong 200 Free time again ...
The French "Legion" in sprint free had their first non suit meets -- Bousquet went 22.3 and the best 100 Free was 49.4. Those actually pretty good times -- good long-course times that is :applaud: -- too bad the meets were short-course.
I think Leveaux was about 6 seconds above his 100 Free record :badday:
Oh - and a German kid swam the 50 Fly faster than Bousquet in Free -- ouch
Mwahahah. There's a big shake-up coming. :bump:
It'll be fun to see who survives "withdrawal"... I foresee something akin to the Judgment of the Dead from Egyptian afterlife mythology, where a scale will decide which is heavier- the swimmer that wore the suit, or the suit that wore the swimmer. May all who fall in the latter category be consumed by the crocodile.
Phelps will survive. It's up in the air for everyone else. Of course, I do wonder how much of it is due to beginning a new season. Obviously, though, suitlessness is compacting matters.
any link to the times?
Well - Cielo's record is 46.9 - that's probably as fast or faster than Lezak.
As far as sub 19 in the 50 -- I don't think it's going to happen. Bousquet was under in 2005 - Cielo was under in 08, no LZR I believe, but both in full body suits.
We can just put the American record back to Tom Jager and go from there ...
The French swims were mentioned in swimming news - but it did not say if it was short-course or long course. I went to the French federation website and checked it out. They also have the results from the same meet last year - Bousquet was at 21.1 at that time ....
I don't think sub 19 is going to happen either. If I were to set a line for the fastest time of the year I would put it at 19.15.
I cannot believe the difference in times for Bousquet. 22.3 in SCM? I would have thought he could do that in practice in a practice suit. Didn't you go 23 low in practice with a Jaked?
American record backto Jager??? Nah, Hall beat it by a wide margin in a FS1 jammer.
