If they go back to true regular suits and Jammers, we may never see the times of the last 2 years again - well at least not until they change the rules again.... I went back to look at the World Rankings for 10th Place and 25th place for the last 7 Olympic years. The Olympic years have always been the fastest years (except of course for 2009 - thanks to you know what). I used the 10th and 25th spot to avoid the "freak" factor and good a good average rate of improvement. Also - I used Freestyle to avoid the impact of rule changes and the emergence of dlphin kicks.
1984 50.36 50.93
1988 50.13 50.54
1992 49.83 50.43
1996 49.74 50.27
2000 49.15 49.67
2004 49.08 49.45
2008 47.83 48.5
2009 47.77 48.27
A couple of things jump out:
- rate of progress has slowed down to maybe 1 to 2 tenth per Olympic cycle
- Big drop in 2000 with arrival of Fastskin suits - about half a second ! and of course a full second and more in 2008.
- In a 1996 suit, I would guess the current times to be just a little slower than the 2000 times.
They are going to have trials next year for the 2011 Worlds - I am guessing a 49.7 or 49.8 will make the US team in the 100 Free ....
Parents
Former Member
This argument is obviously countered by the simple fact that more people are watching swimming and track and field now due to Phelps and Bolt, who, incidentally, regularly break world records.
And you can't forget Frederick Bosque, Cesar Cielo, Gemma Spofforth and the countless recent swimming world record holders that have become household names.
...My point was that Bolt and Phelps are one of a generation kind of athletes.
Look at the world record progression for the 200M dash:
1968 Tommie Smith
1979 Pietro Menea
1996 Michael Johnson
2008/09 Usain Bolt
World records are extremely rare in a sport like track where technology doesn't drive the performance.
Phelps would be just as famous with or without the suits. Paul Biederman is known not for breaking two world records, but for beating Phelps (with a tech suit on). World records have already become a non-issue in swimming at this point anyway.
This argument is obviously countered by the simple fact that more people are watching swimming and track and field now due to Phelps and Bolt, who, incidentally, regularly break world records.
And you can't forget Frederick Bosque, Cesar Cielo, Gemma Spofforth and the countless recent swimming world record holders that have become household names.
...My point was that Bolt and Phelps are one of a generation kind of athletes.
Look at the world record progression for the 200M dash:
1968 Tommie Smith
1979 Pietro Menea
1996 Michael Johnson
2008/09 Usain Bolt
World records are extremely rare in a sport like track where technology doesn't drive the performance.
Phelps would be just as famous with or without the suits. Paul Biederman is known not for breaking two world records, but for beating Phelps (with a tech suit on). World records have already become a non-issue in swimming at this point anyway.
