If they go back to true regular suits and Jammers, we may never see the times of the last 2 years again - well at least not until they change the rules again.... I went back to look at the World Rankings for 10th Place and 25th place for the last 7 Olympic years. The Olympic years have always been the fastest years (except of course for 2009 - thanks to you know what). I used the 10th and 25th spot to avoid the "freak" factor and good a good average rate of improvement. Also - I used Freestyle to avoid the impact of rule changes and the emergence of dlphin kicks.
1984 50.36 50.93
1988 50.13 50.54
1992 49.83 50.43
1996 49.74 50.27
2000 49.15 49.67
2004 49.08 49.45
2008 47.83 48.5
2009 47.77 48.27
A couple of things jump out:
- rate of progress has slowed down to maybe 1 to 2 tenth per Olympic cycle
- Big drop in 2000 with arrival of Fastskin suits - about half a second ! and of course a full second and more in 2008.
- In a 1996 suit, I would guess the current times to be just a little slower than the 2000 times.
They are going to have trials next year for the 2011 Worlds - I am guessing a 49.7 or 49.8 will make the US team in the 100 Free ....
At USMS nationals, Dave Holland (an Indiana grad) talked to Joel Stager of the Counsilman Center for the Science of Swimming. Joel told Dave that, according to his latest statistical model of swimming WRs, the times we are seeing now weren't "supposed" to happen until the 2011-2018 timeframe.
Which doesn't mean they won't ever be broken (though, as in any group of WRs, there will be some that will "live" quite a bit longer than typical).
There are a couple of interviews of Stager on Floswimming:
www.floswimming.org/.../118572-suit-talk-with-dr-stager-pt-1www.floswimming.org/.../119408-dr-stager-suit-talk-pt2
My hope is that the ancient farts at FINA who are stuck in the 70s (even worse than AARP gold club member Smith) will eventually retire and people who understand technology and progress will come in an move the sport slowly forward. This dramatic back pedaling is ridiculous. I personally don't think the records will remain for too long but certainly won't fall so quickly.
The real question to me is if by stiffling technology will FINA turn promising athletes off to the sport?
They are going to have trials next year for the 2011 Worlds - I am guessing a 49.7 or 49.8 will make the US team in the 100 Free ....
I was thinking slower for sure, but 49.7 or 49.8 seems really slow. I was thinking more 48 mid or high might win trials and 49 low would make the relay. If times are really going to be that slow, then Greg might be right and the popularity of the sport will suffer. I hope, however, that the popularity of swimming at least in the U.S. is highly correlated with individual stars and I hope those stars shine just as bright without tech suits.
At this moment the whole tech suit fiasco feels like I am watching an unavoidable car crash. You don't want to see it, but you can't take your eyes off it.
Tim
It will be very interesting to see what going back to the "old" suits will do to the elite swimmer's times. I think there have been a number of possible "innovations" in swimming that might account for a larger percentage of the time drops than we all give credit, such as SDKing off the walls, high elbow catch free, etc.
My guess is that we will see times slow down by less than a second in the 100s and less than 2 seconds in the 200s.
I suspect that we will see more variance among Masters. I know from personal experimentation last year that I was only about half a second faster in my B70 compared to swimming shaved in 100s. I didn't swim shaved in the 200s so I don't have a comparison there...
...But I am sure we could become even purer. Isn't shaving also unnatural? Why don't we go all the way and aspire to be like the Plain People of Lancaster Co. Pennsylvania? Maybe, pilgrims, if we get our minds and hearts right--cleansed of tech suits and all that speed--this can become the purified look of two Masters swimmers, planning their next competion:
www.catholicinformationcenter.org/TRAVEL-AMISH.jpg
Okay, I give up - who's the guy talking with Wookie?
I don't know about all these stats and studies...
But I had a conversation last weekend with a certain recent (3 time) World Record breaking swimmer who says that they will be looking at the records knowing that swim time has been done.
Without concern about the suit, its a time on the wall and they are training to beat it.
I hope this is a call to action for swimmers to ramp it up.
Especially masters swimmers since this is a masters forum.
Seriously!
Work on technique and more specific training for specialty events.
Take a look at the dry land Fort & co. are doing.
Loose that weight that is jiggling and slowing you down.
Quit over-trainng.
Get some ART or therapy attention to the niggling injuries.
Read Ande's Tips
Yes, I'm tired of hearing about how the suit is all that - and we are doomed with or without it.
At least we get to swim with a MILLION different ways to still improve.
Sheez!
Track and field is unwatchable without a DVR. The pre race primping is awful, the excuses for poor performances unending, and the post race posing is the worst. I do like watching Jeremy Wariner, he's good. Distance events are also entertaining.
Track and field is unwatchable without a DVR. The pre race primping is awful, the excuses for poor performances unending, and the post race posing is the worst.
You're right. These guys act like true idiots out there. All the things you mentioned and then, of course, there's the obligatory false starts and the five minutes or so it takes to get back to the blocks. For the fastest men on earth, these guys sure can move slow when a race isn't in progress!
and yet T&F's popularity is far greater than swimming.
In what regard? Participation? TV rankings? What country? Cite your sources please, just curious, not arguing.
