If they go back to true regular suits and Jammers, we may never see the times of the last 2 years again - well at least not until they change the rules again.... I went back to look at the World Rankings for 10th Place and 25th place for the last 7 Olympic years. The Olympic years have always been the fastest years (except of course for 2009 - thanks to you know what). I used the 10th and 25th spot to avoid the "freak" factor and good a good average rate of improvement. Also - I used Freestyle to avoid the impact of rule changes and the emergence of dlphin kicks.
1984 50.36 50.93
1988 50.13 50.54
1992 49.83 50.43
1996 49.74 50.27
2000 49.15 49.67
2004 49.08 49.45
2008 47.83 48.5
2009 47.77 48.27
A couple of things jump out:
- rate of progress has slowed down to maybe 1 to 2 tenth per Olympic cycle
- Big drop in 2000 with arrival of Fastskin suits - about half a second ! and of course a full second and more in 2008.
- In a 1996 suit, I would guess the current times to be just a little slower than the 2000 times.
They are going to have trials next year for the 2011 Worlds - I am guessing a 49.7 or 49.8 will make the US team in the 100 Free ....
Track and field is unwatchable without a DVR. The pre race primping is awful, the excuses for poor performances unending, and the post race posing is the worst. I do like watching Jeremy Wariner, he's good. Distance events are also entertaining.
Yeah, I've been glued to T&F World's, just like I was to swimming earlier this month and TDF last month. Once you've been there, I don't think anyone (at least I can't) could handle either T&F or FINA without the DVR.
Someone did a statistical study after the 2000 Olympics to see if there was an unexpectedly large time drop, caused by suits. There wasn't, so the big drop you note might just be due to random error.
Someone was wrong .... I know they did all kinds of studies and tests -- but just look at the 100 and 200 Free times in the 90s going to 2008. All over sudden there was some other sort of breakthrough or random error that just happened to be at the same time they added the suits ? I guess we will find out next year when we get to wear jammers ....
weren't "supposed" to happen until the 2011-2018
IF they are going back to regular suits, I am willing to take any bet that nobody will go under 21 or 47 for at least 10 years ..actually, I am thinking 20, but 10 just to be safe
This is really difficult to explain how someone can compete in the world championships without this issue being resolved prior to the competition - sports.espn.go.com/.../story. What I find more interesting is that Semenya was unable to even come close to the world record in the 800 set in 1983. I am sure that record was set by someone totally clean of PEDs (oh, it looks like it was set by a Czech that only ran the race once, I guess she just must have been a natural).
Tim
That can't count as a woman's record :badday:
I think FloJo's records are dubious at best, but the point remains the same: a World Record hasn't been set in the 100 / 200 / 400 or 800 in womens track in more than 20 years. For men the 100M has been broken a few times in the past 20 years the, 200 has been set three times, and the 400 and 800M have each only been set once in the past 20 years. So how do we conclude that no WR = no interest?
Track and field is unwatchable without a DVR. The pre race primping is awful, the excuses for poor performances unending, and the post race posing is the worst. I do like watching Jeremy Wariner, he's good. Distance events are also entertaining.
and yet T&F's popularity is far greater than swimming.
to reply to the "what about us?" portion:
I for one, have swum personal best times in a speedo and fs1 jammers in the last 13 months and have no reason to believe that I will have any trouble continuing to do the same should these FINA rules affect USMS.
I would think that a good portion of masters swimmers will be just fine. Remember, the percentage of USMS membership that does meets, and that do nationals, is small. (Jim Matysek had percentages on these forums a while back, and i think it was somewhere about 15% total participants did meets.)
There are plenty of these participants who have NOT been wearing any of the new suits and/or have not worn anything more than a normal brief/jammer (for men) or tank (for women). I bet these same people will be doing just fine, where the folks who've been wearing full body LZRs, b70s, Jakeds, etc., will be struggling to get to where they were in 2009.
IF they are going back to regular suits, I am willing to take any bet that nobody will go under 21 or 47 for at least 10 years ..actually, I am thinking 20, but 10 just to be safe
And I wonder how this is good for the sport.
1. We will be pure.
2. We will have no distraction from the tech suits or from FINA, which found itself unable to figure out how to evaluate the suits.
3. We will swim slower.
If it is the case that "nobody will go under 47" for 10 to 20 years, well, by that time probably nobody will care, because as everyone goes slower the interest in the sport will diminish and diminish. World records create excitement and draw interest. Swimming will no longer be on TV (except for a couple of days once every four years) and as the interest in the sport fades, less kids will be attracted to compete--so times will get even slower.
But we will be pure. We will not be "unethical" (as one forumite characterized the use of tech suits). But I am sure we could become even purer. Isn't shaving also unnatural? Why don't we go all the way and aspire to be like the Plain People of Lancaster Co. Pennsylvania? Maybe, pilgrims, if we get our minds and hearts right--cleansed of tech suits and all that speed--this can become the purified look of two Masters swimmers, planning their next competion:
www.catholicinformationcenter.org/TRAVEL-AMISH.jpg
