If they go back to true regular suits and Jammers, we may never see the times of the last 2 years again - well at least not until they change the rules again.... I went back to look at the World Rankings for 10th Place and 25th place for the last 7 Olympic years. The Olympic years have always been the fastest years (except of course for 2009 - thanks to you know what). I used the 10th and 25th spot to avoid the "freak" factor and good a good average rate of improvement. Also - I used Freestyle to avoid the impact of rule changes and the emergence of dlphin kicks.
1984 50.36 50.93
1988 50.13 50.54
1992 49.83 50.43
1996 49.74 50.27
2000 49.15 49.67
2004 49.08 49.45
2008 47.83 48.5
2009 47.77 48.27
A couple of things jump out:
- rate of progress has slowed down to maybe 1 to 2 tenth per Olympic cycle
- Big drop in 2000 with arrival of Fastskin suits - about half a second ! and of course a full second and more in 2008.
- In a 1996 suit, I would guess the current times to be just a little slower than the 2000 times.
They are going to have trials next year for the 2011 Worlds - I am guessing a 49.7 or 49.8 will make the US team in the 100 Free ....
Parents
Former Member
IF they are going back to regular suits, I am willing to take any bet that nobody will go under 21 or 47 for at least 10 years ..actually, I am thinking 20, but 10 just to be safe
And I wonder how this is good for the sport.
1. We will be pure.
2. We will have no distraction from the tech suits or from FINA, which found itself unable to figure out how to evaluate the suits.
3. We will swim slower.
If it is the case that "nobody will go under 47" for 10 to 20 years, well, by that time probably nobody will care, because as everyone goes slower the interest in the sport will diminish and diminish. World records create excitement and draw interest. Swimming will no longer be on TV (except for a couple of days once every four years) and as the interest in the sport fades, less kids will be attracted to compete--so times will get even slower.
But we will be pure. We will not be "unethical" (as one forumite characterized the use of tech suits). But I am sure we could become even purer. Isn't shaving also unnatural? Why don't we go all the way and aspire to be like the Plain People of Lancaster Co. Pennsylvania? Maybe, pilgrims, if we get our minds and hearts right--cleansed of tech suits and all that speed--this can become the purified look of two Masters swimmers, planning their next competion:
www.catholicinformationcenter.org/TRAVEL-AMISH.jpg
IF they are going back to regular suits, I am willing to take any bet that nobody will go under 21 or 47 for at least 10 years ..actually, I am thinking 20, but 10 just to be safe
And I wonder how this is good for the sport.
1. We will be pure.
2. We will have no distraction from the tech suits or from FINA, which found itself unable to figure out how to evaluate the suits.
3. We will swim slower.
If it is the case that "nobody will go under 47" for 10 to 20 years, well, by that time probably nobody will care, because as everyone goes slower the interest in the sport will diminish and diminish. World records create excitement and draw interest. Swimming will no longer be on TV (except for a couple of days once every four years) and as the interest in the sport fades, less kids will be attracted to compete--so times will get even slower.
But we will be pure. We will not be "unethical" (as one forumite characterized the use of tech suits). But I am sure we could become even purer. Isn't shaving also unnatural? Why don't we go all the way and aspire to be like the Plain People of Lancaster Co. Pennsylvania? Maybe, pilgrims, if we get our minds and hearts right--cleansed of tech suits and all that speed--this can become the purified look of two Masters swimmers, planning their next competion:
www.catholicinformationcenter.org/TRAVEL-AMISH.jpg
