If they go back to true regular suits and Jammers, we may never see the times of the last 2 years again - well at least not until they change the rules again.... I went back to look at the World Rankings for 10th Place and 25th place for the last 7 Olympic years. The Olympic years have always been the fastest years (except of course for 2009 - thanks to you know what). I used the 10th and 25th spot to avoid the "freak" factor and good a good average rate of improvement. Also - I used Freestyle to avoid the impact of rule changes and the emergence of dlphin kicks.
1984 50.36 50.93
1988 50.13 50.54
1992 49.83 50.43
1996 49.74 50.27
2000 49.15 49.67
2004 49.08 49.45
2008 47.83 48.5
2009 47.77 48.27
A couple of things jump out:
- rate of progress has slowed down to maybe 1 to 2 tenth per Olympic cycle
- Big drop in 2000 with arrival of Fastskin suits - about half a second ! and of course a full second and more in 2008.
- In a 1996 suit, I would guess the current times to be just a little slower than the 2000 times.
They are going to have trials next year for the 2011 Worlds - I am guessing a 49.7 or 49.8 will make the US team in the 100 Free ....
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Former Member
Someone did a statistical study after the 2000 Olympics to see if there was an unexpectedly large time drop, caused by suits. There wasn't, so the big drop you note might just be due to random error.
Someone was wrong .... I know they did all kinds of studies and tests -- but just look at the 100 and 200 Free times in the 90s going to 2008. All over sudden there was some other sort of breakthrough or random error that just happened to be at the same time they added the suits ? I guess we will find out next year when we get to wear jammers ....
Someone did a statistical study after the 2000 Olympics to see if there was an unexpectedly large time drop, caused by suits. There wasn't, so the big drop you note might just be due to random error.
Someone was wrong .... I know they did all kinds of studies and tests -- but just look at the 100 and 200 Free times in the 90s going to 2008. All over sudden there was some other sort of breakthrough or random error that just happened to be at the same time they added the suits ? I guess we will find out next year when we get to wear jammers ....