If they go back to true regular suits and Jammers, we may never see the times of the last 2 years again - well at least not until they change the rules again.... I went back to look at the World Rankings for 10th Place and 25th place for the last 7 Olympic years. The Olympic years have always been the fastest years (except of course for 2009 - thanks to you know what). I used the 10th and 25th spot to avoid the "freak" factor and good a good average rate of improvement. Also - I used Freestyle to avoid the impact of rule changes and the emergence of dlphin kicks.
1984 50.36 50.93
1988 50.13 50.54
1992 49.83 50.43
1996 49.74 50.27
2000 49.15 49.67
2004 49.08 49.45
2008 47.83 48.5
2009 47.77 48.27
A couple of things jump out:
- rate of progress has slowed down to maybe 1 to 2 tenth per Olympic cycle
- Big drop in 2000 with arrival of Fastskin suits - about half a second ! and of course a full second and more in 2008.
- In a 1996 suit, I would guess the current times to be just a little slower than the 2000 times.
They are going to have trials next year for the 2011 Worlds - I am guessing a 49.7 or 49.8 will make the US team in the 100 Free ....
They are going to have trials next year for the 2011 Worlds - I am guessing a 49.7 or 49.8 will make the US team in the 100 Free ....
I was thinking slower for sure, but 49.7 or 49.8 seems really slow. I was thinking more 48 mid or high might win trials and 49 low would make the relay. If times are really going to be that slow, then Greg might be right and the popularity of the sport will suffer. I hope, however, that the popularity of swimming at least in the U.S. is highly correlated with individual stars and I hope those stars shine just as bright without tech suits.
At this moment the whole tech suit fiasco feels like I am watching an unavoidable car crash. You don't want to see it, but you can't take your eyes off it.
Tim
They are going to have trials next year for the 2011 Worlds - I am guessing a 49.7 or 49.8 will make the US team in the 100 Free ....
I was thinking slower for sure, but 49.7 or 49.8 seems really slow. I was thinking more 48 mid or high might win trials and 49 low would make the relay. If times are really going to be that slow, then Greg might be right and the popularity of the sport will suffer. I hope, however, that the popularity of swimming at least in the U.S. is highly correlated with individual stars and I hope those stars shine just as bright without tech suits.
At this moment the whole tech suit fiasco feels like I am watching an unavoidable car crash. You don't want to see it, but you can't take your eyes off it.
Tim