sportsillustrated.cnn.com/.../index.html
From the man whose WR has been broken four times in the last two months.....
I like his attitude. He could never be a USMS swimmer. Too much whining here about everything.
Your questions can be answered to some degree by someone (not me) willing to invest some time.
Records fall all the time of course, but -- without examining the historical data -- I would guess that they tend to happen in clusters to some degree. Whether this lastest batch is unusual, I don't know; it certainly seems that way.
There's a nice bar graph of world records set by year in Colwin's "Breakthrough Swimming". There are some clear spikes in the graph indicating this is right, that some years just see bunches of records being set at once. I'll have to see if I can dig up a link, b/c he pulled it from another reference, I believe.
"Breakthrough Swimming", chapter 13.
Unfortunately, it doesn't look like the google book's free preview includes the graph page, but there's still a good discussion of swimming technology -- tech suits, training methods, etc. There's even a quote from Popov in there about his preference for briefs over tech suits.
The upshot is that record clusters come not only from new technologies, but from a conflation of that with advances in training methodology, accumulated rule changes, and generations that see particularly gifted swimmers. Add to that the fact that Olympic years ratchet up the intensity, and you get records falling in droves.
It will be interesting, a year from now, to add the numbers of records from this year into the mix to see if there is a larger spike than in previous cycles.
It is an Olympic year, there is a huge pool of talent vying for a few spots at the top and its possible that a lot of swimmers are hitting their peak in their training at the same time.
I would think this would be especially true in the powerhouse swimming countries like the US and Australia. It might be just as hard to make it onto the team as it will be to make the finals at the Olympics. It doesn't make much sense to taper for the Olympics and not be at your best for your country's trials.
Skip
I do know one clear effect of the LZR: no one is talking about PEDs much anymore. Amaury Leveaux drops 1.5 seconds in the 50 free to go 21.38, and the Smiths stay silent? Must be the suit!
The LZR is going give any dopers a freebie this year, assuming their PEDs are undetectable.
People might as well being saying "I could win in an old woolen suit" or "I could win with an old wooden tennis racket"
This reminded me that John McEnroe has advocated pro tennis go back to wooden rackets. Different sport, same type of problems. Anyway, I found this article: www.slate.com/.../ Interesting parallels between the racket debate in tennis and the suit debate in swimming.
swimnews.com looked at prior Olympic years and nothing is even in the same ballpark as this year. Poke around on their site for details.
The last time the record books were rewritten in this fashion was when lycra suits were introduced.
At this point it looks likely that at least some of the other suit manufacturers will offer competitive suits or have done so. The idea that the suits don't actually offer any performance enhancement is an incredible stretch. People might as well being saying "I could win in an old woolen suit" or "I could win with an old wooden tennis racket". Phelps probably could still win the 200 fly in a brief, but in the more competitive events I think Schubert is right, use a new suit or lose.
From the Swimnews article....WRs in 2008:
LONG-COURSE
16/02/08: 200m backstroke - Kirsty Coventry (ZIM) 2:06.39
17/02/08: 50m freestyle - Eamon Sullivan (AUS) 21.56
17/02/08: 100m backstroke - Natalie Coughlin (USA) 59.21
08/03/08: 50m backstroke - Hayley McGregory (USA) 28.00
18/03/08: 4x100m freestyle - (NED) 3:33.62
(Dekker, 53.77; Kromowidjojo, 53.61; Heemskerk, 53.62, and Veldhuis, 52.62)
21/03/08: 100m freestyle - Alain Bernard (FRA) 47.60
22/03/08: 400m medley - Stephanie Rice (AUS) 4:31.46
22/03/08: 50m backstroke - Emily Seebohm (AUS) 27.95
22/03/08: 100m freestyle - Alain Bernard (FRA) 47.50.
23/03/08: 50m backstroke - Sophie Edington (AUS) 27.67
23/03/08: 50m freestyle - Alain Bernard (FRA) 21.50
24/03/08: 50m freestyle - Marleen Veldhuis (NED) 24.09
24/03/08: 400m freestyle - Federica Pellegrini (ITA) 4:01.53
25/03/08: 200m medley - Stephanie Rice (AUS) 2:08.92
27/03/08: 50m freestyle - Eamon Sullivan (AUS) 21.41
27/03/08: 100m freestyle - Libby Trickett (nee Lenton) (AUS) 52.88
28/03/08: 50m freestyle - Eamon Sullivan (AUS) 21.28
29/03/08: 50m freestyle - Libby Trickett (AUS) 23.97
02/04/08: 50m backstroke - Liam Tancock (GBR) 24.47
Slightly interesting at least that not one of them is a breaststroke record. Perhaps just because Brendan Hansen hasn't raced rested yet or with a LZR? Kitajima was close in the 200 at the Japan trials. I suppose no fly because Phelps and Crocker haven't been seriously challenged?
What about SCM? Weren't a zillion SCM records recently broken too, including in IMs? I thought Leisel Jones just broke the 100 *** SCM record and Jessica Hardy set the 50 *** record. Were they wearing LZRs?
Here is a little tidbit about projecting times.I read an article before the 1976 Olympics about projecting winning times(this was in a general sport publication,I don't remember which one.) It said the smoothest curve was in Swimming the mens 1500 and projected a 15:40.They only missed by 39 sec.:dunno:,not taking into account the sudden increase in yardage the distance guys were doing.
From the Swimnews article....WRs in 2008:
LONG-COURSE
16/02/08: 200m backstroke - Kirsty Coventry (ZIM) 2:06.39
17/02/08: 50m freestyle - Eamon Sullivan (AUS) 21.56
17/02/08: 100m backstroke - Natalie Coughlin (USA) 59.21
08/03/08: 50m backstroke - Hayley McGregory (USA) 28.00
18/03/08: 4x100m freestyle - (NED) 3:33.62
(Dekker, 53.77; Kromowidjojo, 53.61; Heemskerk, 53.62, and Veldhuis, 52.62)
21/03/08: 100m freestyle - Alain Bernard (FRA) 47.60
22/03/08: 400m medley - Stephanie Rice (AUS) 4:31.46
22/03/08: 50m backstroke - Emily Seebohm (AUS) 27.95
22/03/08: 100m freestyle - Alain Bernard (FRA) 47.50.
23/03/08: 50m backstroke - Sophie Edington (AUS) 27.67
23/03/08: 50m freestyle - Alain Bernard (FRA) 21.50
24/03/08: 50m freestyle - Marleen Veldhuis (NED) 24.09
24/03/08: 400m freestyle - Federica Pellegrini (ITA) 4:01.53
25/03/08: 200m medley - Stephanie Rice (AUS) 2:08.92
27/03/08: 50m freestyle - Eamon Sullivan (AUS) 21.41
27/03/08: 100m freestyle - Libby Trickett (nee Lenton) (AUS) 52.88
28/03/08: 50m freestyle - Eamon Sullivan (AUS) 21.28
29/03/08: 50m freestyle - Libby Trickett (AUS) 23.97
02/04/08: 50m backstroke - Liam Tancock (GBR) 24.47
Slightly interesting at least that not one of them is a breaststroke record. Perhaps just because Brendan Hansen hasn't raced rested yet or with a LZR? Kitajima was close in the 200 at the Japan trials. I suppose no fly because Phelps and Crocker haven't been seriously challenged?
I think Brendan Hansen is a Nike guy, and AFAIK, is planning on wearing one of their suits at trials.
