I am writing a story for Swimmer magazine on where USMS records are likely to be 50 years from now and would truly appreciate your help in predicting these!
There are a total of 1800+ individual pool records possible, so to narrow things down, I'm concentrating on two events in two age groups: the 100 yards free and the 400 yard IM in age groups 45-49 and 65-69.
The current records here are pretty amazing, and the curves showing the trajectories since USMS began 50 years ago suggest there is likely plenty of room to drop.
If you could send me your email address to jamesthornton1@comcast.net , I will send you my little prediction form plus graphs of the record trends. Thanks in advance.
Alternatively, you could just post your predictions here. In any event, I need to have my story in by the 15th, so please act with some alacrity! Again, thanks so much in advance.
PS if you could include any rationale behind your predictions (mathematical analysis, guess work, gut feeling, whatever) that would be fantastic!
Note: current records and record holders are in red below.
Name: _______________________
Your predictions for records by 2070:
Men 100 Free
Now:45-49 (N. Grainger: 46.21) 65-69 (R. Abrahams: 49.42)
By 2070 _________________ _________________
Women 100 Free
Now: 45-49 (E. Braun: 51.99) 65-69 (L. Val: 57.88)
By 2070: _______________ _________________
Men 400 IM
Now:45-49 (N. Grainger: 4:01.32) 65-69 (R. Colella: 4:30.64)
By 2070: ___________ _____________________
Women 400 IM
Now: 45-49 (K. Pipes-Nielsen: 4:32.87) 5-69 (L. Val: 5:21.70)
By 2070: ___________ __________________
Rationale for your choices:
Those records are already bordering ridiculous!
I won't be around in 2070.
The 45-49 records will be close to today's US-open records, probably slightly faster. 45-year-olds can get very close to their lifetime bests with a concerted effort. Couple that with the general evolution of the sport and I think there is no problem for someone born in 2025 to hit a 2020 US open record in 2070 because the best will be hitting those times well before their athletic peak age.
I think the 65-69 records are harder to predict. Even for the most healthy, well preserved, elite athlete, age is taking its toll by 65. Still, I expect athletes will find ways to more effectively slow that decline. I'll say that:
The men's 65-69 100 fr will be within 5% of the 45-49 record, instead of the 7% today.
The men's 65-59 400 IM will be within 9% of the 45-49 record, instead of the 12% today.
The women's 65-69 100 fr will be within 9% of the 45-49 record, instead of the 11% today.
The women's 65-59 400 IM will be within 12% of the 45-49 record, instead of the 18% today.
A complicating factor is that many if not most affluent aging adults in 2070 will be "enhanced". Forget doping (which I suspect effectively already influences the majority of the men's records, even if it is "therapeutic") what about cognitive and mechanical enhancement? The sky may be the limit when the line between man and machine is sufficiently blurred. There also may be a loss of distinction between male and female, which will further complicate record keeping.
Thanks, Karl. Did you do the math to compute your predictions? I am not that mathematically savvy!
100 free 45-49 65-69
M
W
400 IM 45-49 65-69
M
W
Also, could you PM me your last name? Thanks. Jim
I'm slightly surprised this thread isn't generating more traffic. 7-9 years ago this thread would have precipitated a vigorous discussion totaling several pages withing a week of the first positing. I still check these forums ~weekly, but I guess the rest of the swimming community has moved on. It will be interesting to see if meet participation drops after the pandemic, or if there will be a surge of folks seeking to satisfy their suppressed desire to compete.
Unfortunately, none of the threads are generating much traffic. It has gradually dropped off over the last few years, and now the traffic is at a crawl.
Although I have read this thread, I have no strong feelings one way or another as to what will happen with the records, so I have just been :Lurking:
I'm slightly surprised this thread isn't generating more traffic. 7-9 years ago this thread would have precipitated a vigorous discussion totaling several pages withing a week of the first positing. I still check these forums ~weekly, but I guess the rest of the swimming community has moved on. It will be interesting to see if meet participation drops after the pandemic, or if there will be a surge of folks seeking to satisfy their suppressed desire to compete.
I hadn't responded because I was not sure how to make any reasoned predictions.
Lack of forum activity continues to be a sore point for me. There may have been a slow decrease in activity for some time, but it dropped precipitously when the new main page of USMS came out and the forums link disappeared from the top line.
I hadn't responded because I was not sure how to make any reasoned predictions.
Lack of forum activity continues to be a sore point for me. There may have been a slow decrease in activity for some time, but it dropped precipitously when the new main page of USMS came out and the forums link disappeared from the top line.
Bugs me too. It seems so simple (from my understanding of website platforms) to just add a link at the top directing people to the forums. And since it seems so easy but USMS hasn't done it, I have to believe it's because they choose not to do it, which goes to show they really don't give a damn about these forums anymore.
Bugs me too. It seems so simple (from my understanding of website platforms) to just add a link at the top directing people to the forums. And since it seems so easy but USMS hasn't done it, I have to believe it's because they choose not to do it, which goes to show they really don't give a damn about these forums anymore.
I agree with you and King Frog. What's up with that? :shakeshead:
In 2070.
100 FR
M 45-49 39.90
M 65-69 41.9
W 45-49 45.56
W 65-69 49.7
400 IM
M 45-49 3:33.32
M 65-69 3:52.5
W 45-59 3:55.60
W 65-69 4:23.9
In retrospect, the W 65-69 400 IM looks somewhat preposterous, but I'll stick with my prediction just because it is often a good idea to go with one's first instinct, and since I won't be around then I can see very little downside to being wrong. Anyway, with the very real possibility of tissue regeneration therapies by 2070, a 65 y.o. female in 2070 matching a good but not elite college swimmer from today seems pretty plausible.
I'm slightly surprised this thread isn't generating more traffic. 7-9 years ago this thread would have precipitated a vigorous discussion totaling several pages withing a week of the first positing. I still check these forums ~weekly, but I guess the rest of the swimming community has moved on. It will be interesting to see if meet participation drops after the pandemic, or if there will be a surge of folks seeking to satisfy their suppressed desire to compete.
I'm slightly surprised this thread isn't generating more traffic. 7-9 years ago this thread would have precipitated a vigorous discussion totaling several pages withing a week of the first positing. I still check these forums ~weekly, but I guess the rest of the swimming community has moved on. It will be interesting to see if meet participation drops after the pandemic, or if there will be a surge of folks seeking to satisfy their suppressed desire to compete.
I would be well open for discussion if we were talking 10 or 20 years in the future... 50? I have absolutely no idea. Not even an inkling of a guess. Especially not for Masters. I have to think that barring inclusion of gene editing or something like that, we have to be getting fairly close to maximal speed for overall world (US Open for SCY :P ) records in the sprints. Not as close for 200s and up but still can't be far off - I mean, the best women's 200 fliers in the world haven't come within a couple seconds of that supersuited record in a decade, and it's not like Belmonte Garcia, etc are pushovers.
How that translates to older people, I'm not sure. I guess theoretically the Masters records should just start to get marginally closer to world records, but how close?
