I am writing a story for Swimmer magazine on where USMS records are likely to be 50 years from now and would truly appreciate your help in predicting these!
There are a total of 1800+ individual pool records possible, so to narrow things down, I'm concentrating on two events in two age groups: the 100 yards free and the 400 yard IM in age groups 45-49 and 65-69.
The current records here are pretty amazing, and the curves showing the trajectories since USMS began 50 years ago suggest there is likely plenty of room to drop.
If you could send me your email address to jamesthornton1@comcast.net , I will send you my little prediction form plus graphs of the record trends. Thanks in advance.
Alternatively, you could just post your predictions here. In any event, I need to have my story in by the 15th, so please act with some alacrity! Again, thanks so much in advance.
PS if you could include any rationale behind your predictions (mathematical analysis, guess work, gut feeling, whatever) that would be fantastic!
Note: current records and record holders are in red below.
Name: _______________________
Your predictions for records by 2070:
Men 100 Free
Now:45-49 (N. Grainger: 46.21) 65-69 (R. Abrahams: 49.42)
By 2070 _________________ _________________
Women 100 Free
Now: 45-49 (E. Braun: 51.99) 65-69 (L. Val: 57.88)
By 2070: _______________ _________________
Men 400 IM
Now:45-49 (N. Grainger: 4:01.32) 65-69 (R. Colella: 4:30.64)
By 2070: ___________ _____________________
Women 400 IM
Now: 45-49 (K. Pipes-Nielsen: 4:32.87) 5-69 (L. Val: 5:21.70)
By 2070: ___________ __________________
Rationale for your choices:
In 2070.
100 FR
M 45-49 39.90
M 65-69 41.9
W 45-49 45.56
W 65-69 49.7
400 IM
M 45-49 3:33.32
M 65-69 3:52.5
W 45-59 3:55.60
W 65-69 4:23.9
In retrospect, the W 65-69 400 IM looks somewhat preposterous, but I'll stick with my prediction just because it is often a good idea to go with one's first instinct, and since I won't be around then I can see very little downside to being wrong. Anyway, with the very real possibility of tissue regeneration therapies by 2070, a 65 y.o. female in 2070 matching a good but not elite college swimmer from today seems pretty plausible.
In 2070.
100 FR
M 45-49 39.90
M 65-69 41.9
W 45-49 45.56
W 65-69 49.7
400 IM
M 45-49 3:33.32
M 65-69 3:52.5
W 45-59 3:55.60
W 65-69 4:23.9
In retrospect, the W 65-69 400 IM looks somewhat preposterous, but I'll stick with my prediction just because it is often a good idea to go with one's first instinct, and since I won't be around then I can see very little downside to being wrong. Anyway, with the very real possibility of tissue regeneration therapies by 2070, a 65 y.o. female in 2070 matching a good but not elite college swimmer from today seems pretty plausible.
