I am writing a story for Swimmer magazine on where USMS records are likely to be 50 years from now and would truly appreciate your help in predicting these!
There are a total of 1800+ individual pool records possible, so to narrow things down, I'm concentrating on two events in two age groups: the 100 yards free and the 400 yard IM in age groups 45-49 and 65-69.
The current records here are pretty amazing, and the curves showing the trajectories since USMS began 50 years ago suggest there is likely plenty of room to drop.
If you could send me your email address to jamesthornton1@comcast.net , I will send you my little prediction form plus graphs of the record trends. Thanks in advance.
Alternatively, you could just post your predictions here. In any event, I need to have my story in by the 15th, so please act with some alacrity! Again, thanks so much in advance.
PS if you could include any rationale behind your predictions (mathematical analysis, guess work, gut feeling, whatever) that would be fantastic!
Note: current records and record holders are in red below.
Name: _______________________
Your predictions for records by 2070:
Men 100 Free
Now:45-49 (N. Grainger: 46.21) 65-69 (R. Abrahams: 49.42)
By 2070 _________________ _________________
Women 100 Free
Now: 45-49 (E. Braun: 51.99) 65-69 (L. Val: 57.88)
By 2070: _______________ _________________
Men 400 IM
Now:45-49 (N. Grainger: 4:01.32) 65-69 (R. Colella: 4:30.64)
By 2070: ___________ _____________________
Women 400 IM
Now: 45-49 (K. Pipes-Nielsen: 4:32.87) 5-69 (L. Val: 5:21.70)
By 2070: ___________ __________________
Rationale for your choices:
Those records are already bordering ridiculous!
I won't be around in 2070.
The 45-49 records will be close to today's US-open records, probably slightly faster. 45-year-olds can get very close to their lifetime bests with a concerted effort. Couple that with the general evolution of the sport and I think there is no problem for someone born in 2025 to hit a 2020 US open record in 2070 because the best will be hitting those times well before their athletic peak age.
I think the 65-69 records are harder to predict. Even for the most healthy, well preserved, elite athlete, age is taking its toll by 65. Still, I expect athletes will find ways to more effectively slow that decline. I'll say that:
The men's 65-69 100 fr will be within 5% of the 45-49 record, instead of the 7% today.
The men's 65-59 400 IM will be within 9% of the 45-49 record, instead of the 12% today.
The women's 65-69 100 fr will be within 9% of the 45-49 record, instead of the 11% today.
The women's 65-59 400 IM will be within 12% of the 45-49 record, instead of the 18% today.
A complicating factor is that many if not most affluent aging adults in 2070 will be "enhanced". Forget doping (which I suspect effectively already influences the majority of the men's records, even if it is "therapeutic") what about cognitive and mechanical enhancement? The sky may be the limit when the line between man and machine is sufficiently blurred. There also may be a loss of distinction between male and female, which will further complicate record keeping.
Those records are already bordering ridiculous!
I won't be around in 2070.
The 45-49 records will be close to today's US-open records, probably slightly faster. 45-year-olds can get very close to their lifetime bests with a concerted effort. Couple that with the general evolution of the sport and I think there is no problem for someone born in 2025 to hit a 2020 US open record in 2070 because the best will be hitting those times well before their athletic peak age.
I think the 65-69 records are harder to predict. Even for the most healthy, well preserved, elite athlete, age is taking its toll by 65. Still, I expect athletes will find ways to more effectively slow that decline. I'll say that:
The men's 65-69 100 fr will be within 5% of the 45-49 record, instead of the 7% today.
The men's 65-59 400 IM will be within 9% of the 45-49 record, instead of the 12% today.
The women's 65-69 100 fr will be within 9% of the 45-49 record, instead of the 11% today.
The women's 65-59 400 IM will be within 12% of the 45-49 record, instead of the 18% today.
A complicating factor is that many if not most affluent aging adults in 2070 will be "enhanced". Forget doping (which I suspect effectively already influences the majority of the men's records, even if it is "therapeutic") what about cognitive and mechanical enhancement? The sky may be the limit when the line between man and machine is sufficiently blurred. There also may be a loss of distinction between male and female, which will further complicate record keeping.
