2010 SCM Zone Championships

Chris, when this topic has come up in the past, i.e., the effect of age on just plain "f'n falling apart", one of the main questions has been this: Are the predictions based on the same people as they move longitudinally through the different age groups (i.e., you base the data on Chris Stevenson's times at 20, 21, 22,...107, 108, 109....) or are you looking at different cohorts (i.e., average top times in the current 20-24, 25-29, 30-34...65-69, 70-74, etc. age groups.) If the latter, than you aren't factoring out cohort effects that could bias things pretty widely. Most 70 year old swimmers today did not benefit from the early training, technique advances, etc. of most 20 year old swimmers today. I would venture to guess that when the latter hit their 70s, their times will be a LOT faster than the current crop of septuagenarians can go. Thus the "degradation" or "disintegration" or "let's call it what it is, rotting away" of human speed would not seem nearly so severe.

Chris, when this topic has come up in the past, i.e., the effect of age on just plain "f'n falling apart", one of the main questions has been this: Are the predictions based on the same people as they move longitudinally through the different age groups (i.e., you base the data on Chris Stevenson's times at 20, 21, 22,...107, 108, 109....) or are you looking at different cohorts (i.e., average top times in the current 20-24, 25-29, 30-34...65-69, 70-74, etc. age groups.) If the latter, than you aren't factoring out cohort effects that could bias things pretty widely. Most 70 year old swimmers today did not benefit from the early training, technique advances, etc. of most 20 year old swimmers today. I would venture to guess that when the latter hit their 70s, their times will be a LOT faster than the current crop of septuagenarians can go. Thus the "degradation" or "disintegration" or "let's call it what it is, rotting away" of human speed would not seem nearly so severe.