How slow will they go (and what about us ...) ?

Former Member
Former Member
If they go back to true regular suits and Jammers, we may never see the times of the last 2 years again - well at least not until they change the rules again.... I went back to look at the World Rankings for 10th Place and 25th place for the last 7 Olympic years. The Olympic years have always been the fastest years (except of course for 2009 - thanks to you know what). I used the 10th and 25th spot to avoid the "freak" factor and good a good average rate of improvement. Also - I used Freestyle to avoid the impact of rule changes and the emergence of dlphin kicks. 1984 50.36 50.93 1988 50.13 50.54 1992 49.83 50.43 1996 49.74 50.27 2000 49.15 49.67 2004 49.08 49.45 2008 47.83 48.5 2009 47.77 48.27 A couple of things jump out: - rate of progress has slowed down to maybe 1 to 2 tenth per Olympic cycle - Big drop in 2000 with arrival of Fastskin suits - about half a second ! and of course a full second and more in 2008. - In a 1996 suit, I would guess the current times to be just a little slower than the 2000 times. They are going to have trials next year for the 2011 Worlds - I am guessing a 49.7 or 49.8 will make the US team in the 100 Free ....
Parents
  • A swimmer does not have to carry their own body weight - the amount of strength for one arm pull is so small comapred to what you need for a stride of running. Go right ahead - ask any runner to complete an equal to a college swim training program while running --- 60k in the water = about 240 k a week running. A marathon a day - no problem. And during hell week - they will do one in the morning and one in the evening :applaud: Ok - what is "new" in running in the last 20 years ? Bolt runs exactly like Carl Lewis - he is just taller. But water is six times more dense than air (IIRC my HS science), so it is more difficult to move through - also swimmers derive vastly more locomotion from their arms/upperbody vs legs and a runner derives vastly more from their legs ( a muscle mass many times greater than the upper body) - think of weight lifting, I can only bench at best 150 lbs, but can squat or leg press 300 plus, but I think my swimming time in a 100 would be faster (if there was a reliable conversion) than if I tried a 100 on the track. I don't know many runners, but those that I have known really never did the amount of training I did as a swimmer when I look back on it. The exception are cross country or long distance runners - sprinters never. Also we never really thought to to compare it and factor in tghe impact of not breathing 50% or more of the time. New in running is probably training methods, not so much "running" - Bolt runs flat out fast, but that is what he is built to do, no different than a lot of swimmers who are 50 and 100 sprinters - Lewis was also an excellent long jumper and probably have been a good decathlete (the shot and discus may have been weaker events). Bolt is to sprint track events what Ricky Henderson was to base stealing, some day both records will fall because someone will always become better, faster, and more capable.
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  • A swimmer does not have to carry their own body weight - the amount of strength for one arm pull is so small comapred to what you need for a stride of running. Go right ahead - ask any runner to complete an equal to a college swim training program while running --- 60k in the water = about 240 k a week running. A marathon a day - no problem. And during hell week - they will do one in the morning and one in the evening :applaud: Ok - what is "new" in running in the last 20 years ? Bolt runs exactly like Carl Lewis - he is just taller. But water is six times more dense than air (IIRC my HS science), so it is more difficult to move through - also swimmers derive vastly more locomotion from their arms/upperbody vs legs and a runner derives vastly more from their legs ( a muscle mass many times greater than the upper body) - think of weight lifting, I can only bench at best 150 lbs, but can squat or leg press 300 plus, but I think my swimming time in a 100 would be faster (if there was a reliable conversion) than if I tried a 100 on the track. I don't know many runners, but those that I have known really never did the amount of training I did as a swimmer when I look back on it. The exception are cross country or long distance runners - sprinters never. Also we never really thought to to compare it and factor in tghe impact of not breathing 50% or more of the time. New in running is probably training methods, not so much "running" - Bolt runs flat out fast, but that is what he is built to do, no different than a lot of swimmers who are 50 and 100 sprinters - Lewis was also an excellent long jumper and probably have been a good decathlete (the shot and discus may have been weaker events). Bolt is to sprint track events what Ricky Henderson was to base stealing, some day both records will fall because someone will always become better, faster, and more capable.
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