If they go back to true regular suits and Jammers, we may never see the times of the last 2 years again - well at least not until they change the rules again.... I went back to look at the World Rankings for 10th Place and 25th place for the last 7 Olympic years. The Olympic years have always been the fastest years (except of course for 2009 - thanks to you know what). I used the 10th and 25th spot to avoid the "freak" factor and good a good average rate of improvement. Also - I used Freestyle to avoid the impact of rule changes and the emergence of dlphin kicks.
1984 50.36 50.93
1988 50.13 50.54
1992 49.83 50.43
1996 49.74 50.27
2000 49.15 49.67
2004 49.08 49.45
2008 47.83 48.5
2009 47.77 48.27
A couple of things jump out:
- rate of progress has slowed down to maybe 1 to 2 tenth per Olympic cycle
- Big drop in 2000 with arrival of Fastskin suits - about half a second ! and of course a full second and more in 2008.
- In a 1996 suit, I would guess the current times to be just a little slower than the 2000 times.
They are going to have trials next year for the 2011 Worlds - I am guessing a 49.7 or 49.8 will make the US team in the 100 Free ....
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Former Member
"I think the 2006 full body suits add about half a second "
I would presume a Jaked compared to an old style classic speedo brief (which I think is more relevant or perhaps even a compared to a jammer) is worth a good second per 100 depending on body type. I would think the top two places in the 100 free (i.e. to make the team) would need to go 48 mid next year. That's a straight up comparison to the suits of the old days with Biondi and Rowdy. Probably a 49 low to squeak in to finals for eighth place next year. Who knows.... but it is interesting to see that the times really haven't improved all that much over 30 years after you take away the technology and keep the strokes the same.
Running and swimming comparisons only go so far. I mean even the swimmers who are sprinters (50/100 free) are capable of training 100 times their race distance a day (10,000). Runners will never approach this.
It will be interesting to watch Alain Bernard's last 20 meters of his 100 next year without the magic suit. I have seen large heavy bricks sink.
"I think the 2006 full body suits add about half a second "
I would presume a Jaked compared to an old style classic speedo brief (which I think is more relevant or perhaps even a compared to a jammer) is worth a good second per 100 depending on body type. I would think the top two places in the 100 free (i.e. to make the team) would need to go 48 mid next year. That's a straight up comparison to the suits of the old days with Biondi and Rowdy. Probably a 49 low to squeak in to finals for eighth place next year. Who knows.... but it is interesting to see that the times really haven't improved all that much over 30 years after you take away the technology and keep the strokes the same.
Running and swimming comparisons only go so far. I mean even the swimmers who are sprinters (50/100 free) are capable of training 100 times their race distance a day (10,000). Runners will never approach this.
It will be interesting to watch Alain Bernard's last 20 meters of his 100 next year without the magic suit. I have seen large heavy bricks sink.
