If they go back to true regular suits and Jammers, we may never see the times of the last 2 years again - well at least not until they change the rules again.... I went back to look at the World Rankings for 10th Place and 25th place for the last 7 Olympic years. The Olympic years have always been the fastest years (except of course for 2009 - thanks to you know what). I used the 10th and 25th spot to avoid the "freak" factor and good a good average rate of improvement. Also - I used Freestyle to avoid the impact of rule changes and the emergence of dlphin kicks.
1984 50.36 50.93
1988 50.13 50.54
1992 49.83 50.43
1996 49.74 50.27
2000 49.15 49.67
2004 49.08 49.45
2008 47.83 48.5
2009 47.77 48.27
A couple of things jump out:
- rate of progress has slowed down to maybe 1 to 2 tenth per Olympic cycle
- Big drop in 2000 with arrival of Fastskin suits - about half a second ! and of course a full second and more in 2008.
- In a 1996 suit, I would guess the current times to be just a little slower than the 2000 times.
They are going to have trials next year for the 2011 Worlds - I am guessing a 49.7 or 49.8 will make the US team in the 100 Free ....
Parents
Former Member
"If it is the case that "nobody will go under 47" for 10 to 20 years, well, by that time probably nobody will care, because as everyone goes slower the interest in the sport will diminish and diminish. World records create excitement and draw interest. Swimming will no longer be on TV (except for a couple of days once every four years) and as the interest in the sport fades, less kids will be attracted to compete--so times will get even slower."
gshaw,
I will have to disagree with this notion that WR hype is what drives interest and enthusiasm in the sport. Note, Mary T. held the 200m fly WR record for decades, Betsy Mitchell's 200m Back WR stood for years and years..... going back further we see many WR that stood the test of time. Remember Brian Goodell's 1500m free was legendary and lasted for years. These long lasting performances don't diminish interest in the sport. We don't need a fix on a new record every 2 weeks to respect the sport and keep it publicized.
"If it is the case that "nobody will go under 47" for 10 to 20 years, well, by that time probably nobody will care, because as everyone goes slower the interest in the sport will diminish and diminish. World records create excitement and draw interest. Swimming will no longer be on TV (except for a couple of days once every four years) and as the interest in the sport fades, less kids will be attracted to compete--so times will get even slower."
gshaw,
I will have to disagree with this notion that WR hype is what drives interest and enthusiasm in the sport. Note, Mary T. held the 200m fly WR record for decades, Betsy Mitchell's 200m Back WR stood for years and years..... going back further we see many WR that stood the test of time. Remember Brian Goodell's 1500m free was legendary and lasted for years. These long lasting performances don't diminish interest in the sport. We don't need a fix on a new record every 2 weeks to respect the sport and keep it publicized.
