If they go back to true regular suits and Jammers, we may never see the times of the last 2 years again - well at least not until they change the rules again.... I went back to look at the World Rankings for 10th Place and 25th place for the last 7 Olympic years. The Olympic years have always been the fastest years (except of course for 2009 - thanks to you know what). I used the 10th and 25th spot to avoid the "freak" factor and good a good average rate of improvement. Also - I used Freestyle to avoid the impact of rule changes and the emergence of dlphin kicks.
1984 50.36 50.93
1988 50.13 50.54
1992 49.83 50.43
1996 49.74 50.27
2000 49.15 49.67
2004 49.08 49.45
2008 47.83 48.5
2009 47.77 48.27
A couple of things jump out:
- rate of progress has slowed down to maybe 1 to 2 tenth per Olympic cycle
- Big drop in 2000 with arrival of Fastskin suits - about half a second ! and of course a full second and more in 2008.
- In a 1996 suit, I would guess the current times to be just a little slower than the 2000 times.
They are going to have trials next year for the 2011 Worlds - I am guessing a 49.7 or 49.8 will make the US team in the 100 Free ....
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Former Member
ehoch,
Your 100m free time estimates post rubber suit seem a bit slow. I'm going to roll the dice and predict a 48 mid without the technology. Rowdy set the WR back in 1981 against me in Austin with a 49.3. Certainly there has been a half to three quarter second improvement in raw speed since then.
Although.... track does seem pretty dirty these days..... Some of the Jamaicans are pushing the envelope.
www.universalsports.com/ViewA...CLID=204773074
That woman in the 800m didn't look like a woman. And if she passes the gender test.... what does that mean? How huge and muscular can a woman get before we start outright laughing at the testing?
ehoch,
Your 100m free time estimates post rubber suit seem a bit slow. I'm going to roll the dice and predict a 48 mid without the technology. Rowdy set the WR back in 1981 against me in Austin with a 49.3. Certainly there has been a half to three quarter second improvement in raw speed since then.
Although.... track does seem pretty dirty these days..... Some of the Jamaicans are pushing the envelope.
www.universalsports.com/ViewA...CLID=204773074
That woman in the 800m didn't look like a woman. And if she passes the gender test.... what does that mean? How huge and muscular can a woman get before we start outright laughing at the testing?
