What does it mean when we look at the performance of the US men's swimming team at Beijing without Phelps....... i.e. without the man carrying the team? Is he merely the "Vince Young" of a slightly above average football Team?
We essentially lose the 400 free relay, 100 fly (Ian moves form 4th to 3rd), 200 IM and 400 IM (Lochted moves to silver), 200 free and 200 fly. That's makes 6 less golds and one extra bronze.
The US would effectively only win 2 individual events...... the 200 and 100 back.
Is Phelps a true representation of the state of US men's swimming or and exception?
www.nbcolympics.com/.../index.html
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What does it mean when we look at the performance of the US men's swimming team at Beijing without Phelps....... i.e. without the man carrying the team? Is he merely the "Vince Young" of a slightly above average football Team?
We essentially lose the 400 free relay, 100 fly (Ian moves form 4th to 3rd), 200 IM and 400 IM (Lochted moves to silver), 200 free and 200 fly. That's makes 6 less golds and one extra bronze.
The US would effectively only win 2 individual events...... the 200 and 100 back.
Is Phelps a true representation of the state of US men's swimming or and exception?
www.nbcolympics.com/.../index.html
Two problems:
One, you're assuming that if we took out Phelps we'd be replacing him with . . . no one. We'd probably be replacing him with a bunch of people who specialize in their events.
Secondly, at that level of competition, it's all about the extreme observations and the tails of the distribution. It's just not reasonable to make the comparison without comparing everyone. It's like saying, "Well, the Colts weren't that great two years ago, because if they didn't have Peyton Manning they wouldn't have won the Super Bowl."
You can "If . . ." forever and think you know what would have happened, but you never do.
What does it mean when we look at the performance of the US men's swimming team at Beijing without Phelps....... i.e. without the man carrying the team? Is he merely the "Vince Young" of a slightly above average football Team?
We essentially lose the 400 free relay, 100 fly (Ian moves form 4th to 3rd), 200 IM and 400 IM (Lochted moves to silver), 200 free and 200 fly. That's makes 6 less golds and one extra bronze.
The US would effectively only win 2 individual events...... the 200 and 100 back.
Is Phelps a true representation of the state of US men's swimming or and exception?
www.nbcolympics.com/.../index.html
Two problems:
One, you're assuming that if we took out Phelps we'd be replacing him with . . . no one. We'd probably be replacing him with a bunch of people who specialize in their events.
Secondly, at that level of competition, it's all about the extreme observations and the tails of the distribution. It's just not reasonable to make the comparison without comparing everyone. It's like saying, "Well, the Colts weren't that great two years ago, because if they didn't have Peyton Manning they wouldn't have won the Super Bowl."
You can "If . . ." forever and think you know what would have happened, but you never do.
