What does it mean when we look at the performance of the US men's swimming team at Beijing without Phelps....... i.e. without the man carrying the team? Is he merely the "Vince Young" of a slightly above average football Team?
We essentially lose the 400 free relay, 100 fly (Ian moves form 4th to 3rd), 200 IM and 400 IM (Lochted moves to silver), 200 free and 200 fly. That's makes 6 less golds and one extra bronze.
The US would effectively only win 2 individual events...... the 200 and 100 back.
Is Phelps a true representation of the state of US men's swimming or and exception?
www.nbcolympics.com/.../index.html
I don't know the answer to your question other than wondering if Phelps would be insulted being compared to another underachieving former Longhorn in the NFL.
I was noticing that myself.Without Phelps this team was ordinary by US standards.Can't say it's a title IX thing as the Phelpsless men were about like the US women.Can say it's a foreign swimmer training in the US thing though.
I don't know the answer to your question other than wondering if Phelps would be insulted being compared to another underachieving former Longhorn in the NFL.
I endorse this post.
Take away our best swimmer, and we're not so fast. . .
What would Olympic finishes have been were you to take away the best swimmer from Australia, France, etc.?
You're only as strong as your weakest link, and whether we want to admit it to ourselves our not some performances at the Games this year were a little lackluster. I adore all those boys and their all amazing, but what happened to some of them? Hansen especially just didn't seem him self. I think the real test will be next Games. I think Lochte is still growing and it will be interesting to see what he can do when he's not sick. But a few of the other greats seemed this games to be on the way out and their status for the next four years is unsure.
Phelps obviously dominates and without we would have shuffled medals, but some of them might have been better races. He wins by such great margins that you can forget about the really close race for 2nd, 3rd, and 4th. We might actually end up with more exciting race....though obviously he still brings a flair that people are going to watch forever. It's cool to see someone win by 3 body lengths.
You guys are forgetting that in the relay, Michael Phelps did not put us in the lead. If I remember correctly, and I am since I just watched it, Lezak actually won it for us by swimming the fastest 100m split in history (at least I think that's what they said). As for Phelps being either a true representation of US swimming or the exception, I think he's probably an exaggerated representation of the elite US swimmers. There are a lot of guys that can swim a bunch of events really well, just not at that level.
Hoffman,
Those numbers look pretty flat to me. If you normalize the data with the general population growth the news is not impressive.
John Smith
Stop making up stats, for the love of Moses. USA swimming was about 187.5K members in 1986 and about 280K in 2007, an increase in membership of 49%. The US population in 1986 was approximately 241m and it is currently estimated at about 306m, and increase of 27%. You are only off by about 80% in your claim, try again.
So, to use real numbers, if USA swimming grew at the same rate as the US population (a red herring of a statement to begin with) you would more expect to see the 2007 USS figures at 238K. USS has outpaced membership to USA growth by 22%.
I would conclude from these figures, not feelings, that USS has grown significantly faster than the US population as a whole. Further, knowing the current trends in population growth, I contend this is even more impressive given the changing demographics of our nation.
John -
I'll take the bait... Phelps is an exception, like Mark Spitz.
I think men's swimming in the USA is struggling, and the continued loss of high school and collegiate level opportunities without an adequate replacement is going to hurt us in the long run. Add in the loss of summer-based park programs through the loss of community facilities, and the picture gets bleaker.
I do not believe YMCA, USA Swimming or USMS are adequate replacements. These groups require committment separate and beyond the school experience, outside the campus lifestyle and the sense of belonging to the school/university program that is such a large part of the developing individual's life.
Increasingly, swimming at the elite level is becoming something for the well to do, who can afford the costs of travel, personalized training, and in some cases tutoring to allow the individual to continue the sport.
Not an apocalypse, but certainly a concern.
Yet, individuals will rise where open opportunities give them the chance. As others have said, if not Phelps, then someone else who now gets a chance at performing with those above his skill level in an event, which is part of how we all get better.
Screw it, I'm tired of disproving emotional arguments with actual facts month after month. Good post, inaccurate and unsupported by published stats, but thought provoking nontheless.