Lochte may derail Phelps in the IM - but I would not bet on it after the 200 Back.
So then it's up to the 100 Fly, which may be close with Cavic now in the picture - but I saw Phelps going out pretty easy and still almost getting him.
So then the Medley Relay is always a lock for the US - maybe not this time:
Peirsol will probably drop another record or get close.
Hansen will have a lead - but he is not exactly Mr. Confidence right now + *** and Fly are a little scary swimming from the front.
Phelps in the Fly - not sure about Phelps in a relay. I don't think he has ever had to swim a fast relay leg. But my guess is that he will be fast - he is the man.
Lezak in the Free - maybe the best Free anchor out there
- Japan looks good until the Fly and Freestyle
- I think Russia and Great Britain have a hole in the end. France has no Backstroker
- What about the Aussies ? Maybe 0.5 sec out in the Back, then the Breaststroker as good as Hansen on paper. The Flier just dropped to a 51.2 and then it's Lezak against Sullivan.
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Edge: US
I see the legs a little different:
US gets that .5 to .6 lead after the Backstroke -- Peirsol is money in these relays.
Breaststroke - don't see any benefit from clean water in this leg, not if you are only behind .5 sec. I do see the benefit in the breaststroke of going in a little behind. If you are in front, you don't see anything, you just go and hope for the best. If you are a little behind on the second 50, you sense the swimmer in front of you on every stroke. + I don't think Hansen has ever delivered a flat start minus 0.7 time in this relay. I think they will be very close to even after this.
Fly - for a full second you would have to put Phelps at 50.2 flat start -- anything is possible - it is Phelps. I think he will be rather careful on the exchange - I am giving him 0.5 sec.
Free - My guess is that Lezak will just play it very cool and he won't panick when Sullivan catches him at the 50.
Please do not quote Rowdy on anything -- 90% of his takes are total bogus.
So - still a small edge to the US.
By the way - if Crocker wins the 100 Fly, he will swim that relay final. He would be faster and more experienced and they don't have the luxury to give spots to each other in a tight race.
Edge: US
I see the legs a little different:
US gets that .5 to .6 lead after the Backstroke -- Peirsol is money in these relays.
Breaststroke - don't see any benefit from clean water in this leg, not if you are only behind .5 sec. I do see the benefit in the breaststroke of going in a little behind. If you are in front, you don't see anything, you just go and hope for the best. If you are a little behind on the second 50, you sense the swimmer in front of you on every stroke. + I don't think Hansen has ever delivered a flat start minus 0.7 time in this relay. I think they will be very close to even after this.
Fly - for a full second you would have to put Phelps at 50.2 flat start -- anything is possible - it is Phelps. I think he will be rather careful on the exchange - I am giving him 0.5 sec.
Free - My guess is that Lezak will just play it very cool and he won't panick when Sullivan catches him at the 50.
Please do not quote Rowdy on anything -- 90% of his takes are total bogus.
So - still a small edge to the US.
By the way - if Crocker wins the 100 Fly, he will swim that relay final. He would be faster and more experienced and they don't have the luxury to give spots to each other in a tight race.
