Lochte may derail Phelps in the IM - but I would not bet on it after the 200 Back.
So then it's up to the 100 Fly, which may be close with Cavic now in the picture - but I saw Phelps going out pretty easy and still almost getting him.
So then the Medley Relay is always a lock for the US - maybe not this time:
Peirsol will probably drop another record or get close.
Hansen will have a lead - but he is not exactly Mr. Confidence right now + *** and Fly are a little scary swimming from the front.
Phelps in the Fly - not sure about Phelps in a relay. I don't think he has ever had to swim a fast relay leg. But my guess is that he will be fast - he is the man.
Lezak in the Free - maybe the best Free anchor out there
- Japan looks good until the Fly and Freestyle
- I think Russia and Great Britain have a hole in the end. France has no Backstroker
- What about the Aussies ? Maybe 0.5 sec out in the Back, then the Breaststroker as good as Hansen on paper. The Flier just dropped to a 51.2 and then it's Lezak against Sullivan.
Former Member
Yeah I was punching these numbers this afternoon. Someone may get close but the US won't lose unless they have a total meltdown.
It will be much closer to the 400 free than the 800 free was.
We should have a lead after the Backstroke
Here are the best times recorded in the meet thus far. There's a problem with nbcolympics.com and a few of the heats for the 100 back won't show and I couldn't find a frenchbackstroker, so gave them a 54.0 for it. Didn't factor in faster times for the Fly and I didn't use Lezak's relay splits, just to play it safe on the US side, but I think we're 1.5-2.5 seconds faster than this time just based on Phelps/Crocker going 50.0 and Lezak being 46. I did use Bernard's relay split, just used Sullivan's flat start time. Didn't make any allowances for relay starts, unless it was just noted I used flat starts.
Back *** Fly Free Est Time
USA 52.5 59.6 51.0 47.6 3:30.70
France 54.0 59.4 51.8 46.6 3:31.80
Aussie 53.2 59.7 51.0 47.0 3:30.80
Russia 53.2 59.9 52.0 48.5 3:33.7
Japan 54.0 58.9 51.5 49.8 3:34.1
I think the USA has the most room for improvement based on these times above. We know that Hansen CAN go faster, that Crocker/Phelps WILL go faster and that Lezak HAS gone faster. Otherwise, all those times for other teams are close to topped out except for Sullivan's.
So I say the USA goes 327 high or 328 low. Our main competition, the Aussie's probably go 328 high or 329 low.
I want to see how many countries phelps can beat himself with his IM time.
Also, note that the US FLAT start times I listed are just a couple hundreths above the current world record, so this record should get smashed like the 400 free relay one was, just not by 5 teams
Hey,,
doesn't Phelps still have the AR in the 100Fr (47.51), now wouldn't that be a riot...:agree:
True, but Lezak has the fastest 100 fr split in history (46.06). The edge still goes to Lezak I think. BUT, if Crocker pulls a jerk move, maybe Lezak gives his spot on the relay to Phelps any way? Lezak didn't swim in the prelims so he would be giving up the medal entirely...
I'm with you. I'm guessing the coaches, who I *think* have the ultimate say, are going to go with Phelps no matter what. I really want Phelps to win all 8 golds, but what a story it would be for Crocker to return the favor and give Phelps his spot in the relay.
It would be "cool" if Crocker cedes his spot to Phelps like what happened in Athens.
But I would prefer even more if there is no controversy at all. I would rather have Phelps earn the spot cleanly. No one will ever have to say "but....but...but...Phelps was given the spot on the realy....."
I think Phelps would prefer that too.
Yeah, the best possible story is Phelps wins 8 golds and sets 8 world records. I'm rooting for that. If Crocker wins the 100 fly but Phelps swims the relay any way, there will unfortunately always be an asterisk next to Phelps' accomplishment and I *really* don't want that.
Here is a complete hypothetical situation that can't really happen. But since we are posing "what if's"...
Let's just say that Phelps and Crocker both go blazing fast times in the 100 fly for 1-2. For argument's sake, let's say they even tie. And let's say the coaches go with the notion that Phelps gets the nod for the free leg over Lezak because of his American record (47.51). Obviously this discredits Lezak's anchor the other day - that is why this situation doesn't really work. Anyway, so then you have Phelps anchoring the medley relay: and he goes in and has to hold off or catch Sullivan for his 8th gold! Talk about drama made for TV!
great post hoch
yes I think many of us inthe states take this relay for granted
on the back of a napkin the US looks like a full second ahead of the Aussies
Piersol vs Stoeckel
Aaron is a good half second to 6 tenths faster than Hayden
Hansen vs Rickard
this looking like a push right now though Brenden could benefit from some clean water
Phelps vs Lauterstein
Michael is a full second faster from the feet so if he gets 8 golds he may be the deciding factor
Lezak vs Sullivan
every WR I see Eamon set he gets out and has the clean water--this most likely won't be the case here. Gaines made a good point in the 100 where he struggled off the turn when caught in the wake. If ES can ride Lezak's hip (like he did to Bernard)--this could get a bit dicey in the last 25m.
Edge: US
