Lochte may derail Phelps in the IM - but I would not bet on it after the 200 Back.
So then it's up to the 100 Fly, which may be close with Cavic now in the picture - but I saw Phelps going out pretty easy and still almost getting him.
So then the Medley Relay is always a lock for the US - maybe not this time:
Peirsol will probably drop another record or get close.
Hansen will have a lead - but he is not exactly Mr. Confidence right now + *** and Fly are a little scary swimming from the front.
Phelps in the Fly - not sure about Phelps in a relay. I don't think he has ever had to swim a fast relay leg. But my guess is that he will be fast - he is the man.
Lezak in the Free - maybe the best Free anchor out there
- Japan looks good until the Fly and Freestyle
- I think Russia and Great Britain have a hole in the end. France has no Backstroker
- What about the Aussies ? Maybe 0.5 sec out in the Back, then the Breaststroker as good as Hansen on paper. The Flier just dropped to a 51.2 and then it's Lezak against Sullivan.
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It will be much closer to the 400 free than the 800 free was.
We should have a lead after the Backstroke
Here are the best times recorded in the meet thus far. There's a problem with nbcolympics.com and a few of the heats for the 100 back won't show and I couldn't find a frenchbackstroker, so gave them a 54.0 for it. Didn't factor in faster times for the Fly and I didn't use Lezak's relay splits, just to play it safe on the US side, but I think we're 1.5-2.5 seconds faster than this time just based on Phelps/Crocker going 50.0 and Lezak being 46. I did use Bernard's relay split, just used Sullivan's flat start time. Didn't make any allowances for relay starts, unless it was just noted I used flat starts.
Back *** Fly Free Est Time
USA 52.5 59.6 51.0 47.6 3:30.70
France 54.0 59.4 51.8 46.6 3:31.80
Aussie 53.2 59.7 51.0 47.0 3:30.80
Russia 53.2 59.9 52.0 48.5 3:33.7
Japan 54.0 58.9 51.5 49.8 3:34.1
I think the USA has the most room for improvement based on these times above. We know that Hansen CAN go faster, that Crocker/Phelps WILL go faster and that Lezak HAS gone faster. Otherwise, all those times for other teams are close to topped out except for Sullivan's.
So I say the USA goes 327 high or 328 low. Our main competition, the Aussie's probably go 328 high or 329 low.
I want to see how many countries phelps can beat himself with his IM time.
Also, note that the US FLAT start times I listed are just a couple hundreths above the current world record, so this record should get smashed like the 400 free relay one was, just not by 5 teams
It will be much closer to the 400 free than the 800 free was.
We should have a lead after the Backstroke
Here are the best times recorded in the meet thus far. There's a problem with nbcolympics.com and a few of the heats for the 100 back won't show and I couldn't find a frenchbackstroker, so gave them a 54.0 for it. Didn't factor in faster times for the Fly and I didn't use Lezak's relay splits, just to play it safe on the US side, but I think we're 1.5-2.5 seconds faster than this time just based on Phelps/Crocker going 50.0 and Lezak being 46. I did use Bernard's relay split, just used Sullivan's flat start time. Didn't make any allowances for relay starts, unless it was just noted I used flat starts.
Back *** Fly Free Est Time
USA 52.5 59.6 51.0 47.6 3:30.70
France 54.0 59.4 51.8 46.6 3:31.80
Aussie 53.2 59.7 51.0 47.0 3:30.80
Russia 53.2 59.9 52.0 48.5 3:33.7
Japan 54.0 58.9 51.5 49.8 3:34.1
I think the USA has the most room for improvement based on these times above. We know that Hansen CAN go faster, that Crocker/Phelps WILL go faster and that Lezak HAS gone faster. Otherwise, all those times for other teams are close to topped out except for Sullivan's.
So I say the USA goes 327 high or 328 low. Our main competition, the Aussie's probably go 328 high or 329 low.
I want to see how many countries phelps can beat himself with his IM time.
Also, note that the US FLAT start times I listed are just a couple hundreths above the current world record, so this record should get smashed like the 400 free relay one was, just not by 5 teams
