Yes - one more time it's about the suit:
Here is a comparison to 2004 and what it took to make top 16 (top 8 for the 400) over the first 7 events:
2004 listed first then 2008 then the approx. % drop
400 IM - 4:24.8 to 4:21.0 1.5%
100 Fly - 1:01.29 to 59.97 2%
400 Free - 3:55.0 to 3:51.4 1.6%
400 IM - 4:49.57 to 4:43.2 2.3%
100 Br - 1:04.0 to 1:02.36 2.5%
100 Bk - 1:04.12 to 1:02.31 2.6%
200 Free - 1:51.1 to 1:48.76 2.2%
Ok - to be fair, people are getting faster, but I would guess at least a 1.5% drop across the board for the suit -- that is net time !
About the legskins: I wonder if people are wearing them to avoid the chance of catastrophic failure, where the zipper comes undone during the race? That might also explain why the women are going for the open back suits.
I for one just do not believe that the swim suit is a major factor in these great times.
I think your being a bit naive George, those of us who have tried each generation of the suits can attest to the fact that the recent changes that FINA made in allowing these "wetsuits" has had a dramatic effect on times.
As Glen Mills pointed out and I discovered first hand testing a BlueSeventy last week the "flotation" that it provides as a significant impact on body position...an is greater the longer the race. What this will do to things like TI is going to be interesting because it for the most part compensates for both fatigue and poor technique.
I also saw where you posted that changes in stroke and conditioning are the main factors. I would argue that there has been any major changes in training in years...fad chasing yes but other than possibly more emphasis on quality/fast swimming more frequently in work out no. And as far as stroke changes I agree with Hoch that the no hand touch in backstroke/flip turn, dolphin in *** and far more emphasis on underwater SDK are the real changes.
To those that have doubts at some point I hope you can get a chance to try one of these next generation suits first hand and come back and discuss.
Paul are you saying that these great swims are only because of a swim suit. No world record set, it should say Phelps, wearing a floating device.
Next year it will be Phelps wearing swim paddles.
After that Phelps wearing zoomers.
What bogus type swimming is coming next.
Phelps is slower than his 200 fly WR by a fraction should he not be faster by 2percent? Did he wear a LZR in March 2007, when he set his WR.???
I'm saying its a combination of things, but the suits have advanced the times significantly/
Lezak goes 47.58 after "toiling" in the 48+ range for 8 years...he trains on his on, has not changed anything...and he put an LZR on tonight.
He did have it on this morning when he went 48.15 and probably when he went 48.33 a few weeks ago. I don't think you can take all the credit away from Lezak. I'm sure he didn't drop 8 tenths all on his own but it wasn't all suit.
Lezak has always been a "gamer" in prelims/semis...loves to hold back as much as he can...and it cost him making finals the last go around in the Olympics.
Shaman, George....all you other naysayers...go try the suits and come back and talk to us. You simply don't get it....speculate and hypothesize all you want...there has been a fundamental breakthrough in technology on the same scale that using aero bars for cycling time trials had.
Shaman...you say the drop wasn't just the suit so share your first hand knowledge of the changes Jason has made the last 4 years in his stroke and the innovative training he's incorporated? So he goes 48.3 unrested a few weeks ago..rests a few days and goes 47.5....but couldn''t make those asme drops the last 4 years...give me a break!
Final post by me on this subject -- here are the exact numbers for the first 4 days:
I took 16th place, because that earns an evening swim now, plus one can be certain that swimmers around that place go all out.
I compared all the 100 and 200 events where prelims have been completed (12 events). I compared 16th place between 1984 vs 2004 and then 2004 vs. 2008.
Between 1984 and 2004 the 16th place time dropped on average 2.3%.
Between 2004 and 2008 the 16th place time also dropped 2.3%.
In 1984, swimmers had to touch the wall with their hand in the backstroke turn, Breaststrokers were not allowed to get their head under water or do a dolphin kick, and the Fly kick was only done during the butterfly swim.
I don't know the exact reason and how it all works, but the suits are making the good swimmers into great swimmers. Pick any event and look at places 5-25. Compare their times to last year, 4 years ago or any other way.
Based on this, I make a prediction right now -- I will come very close to my PR in the 100 Free this summer, and I should not be able to do so by any normal means.
Ehoch I have enjoyed all of your posts on the subject. They are very intelligent. I for one just do not believe that the swim suit is a major factor in these great times.
Based on this, I make a prediction right now -- I will come very close to my PR in the 100 Free this summer, and I should not be able to do so by any normal means.
This is (probably) my last post on the topic. Yes, there is good evidence the suit is making some impact. But correlation does not imply causation. You need to control for other variables that could also be influencing the outcome. Based on your data, it looks like we can confidently say the suits are "correlated" with improved performance. We cannot yet say the suits "cause" improved performance - it seems like semantics but this is a material difference and is covered in Stats 101. The importance of fthis distinction comes to mind when considering the recent drowning study...but I'll avoid that can of worms.
The 2.3% improvement in four vs. 20 years is interesting, but do we know for a fact the overall rate of improvement is supposed to be linear over time? What if it's exponential until it reaches some plateau?
I wore a body suit for the first time a few weeks ago. It definitely feels fast--I felt like I was all shaved down. I went faster than expected in a couple races, and slower than expected in a couple races. I hope you get close to your PR this summer--that sounds like a worthy and exciting goal.
But if you rely on a suit to take the last step for you, there's a good chance you'll be disappointed. Plus, say you do go a PR with the suit--if you believe it is only 1-2% faster than you would have gone otherwise, think of all the little training things you can do to go even faster--or to get the same time w/o a magic suit! In a 100FR, 1% can be a start, turn, and one less breath! (you aren't Garett Weber-Gale, are you? I'm assuming you're a standard masters swimmer)
By the time I put on one of those suits, I would be too tired to swim and the race would already be over.
Will one fit me that would be the first question? How do I get 250 lbs of jelly into one of them?
Ever heard of Nancy Kinney....79 year old rock star of a woman...wore one last weekend and swam 18 seconds faster in her 200 LCM back then the last time she swam it. Guess she caught on to all the new training techniques going around these days....and it only took her 20 minutes to get it on the first time.
I would not call ehoch an average master swimmer, he can elaborate more on this if he wants.
Looking at the Canadian number I gave earlier, (padding the time with .5 to account for the relay) the average is .9%. The sample is small but the setting of the experiment is almost perfect as the only difference between the 2 sets of time is the suit. So an effect, yes, maybe less than 2% also.
