Yes - one more time it's about the suit:
Here is a comparison to 2004 and what it took to make top 16 (top 8 for the 400) over the first 7 events:
2004 listed first then 2008 then the approx. % drop
400 IM - 4:24.8 to 4:21.0 1.5%
100 Fly - 1:01.29 to 59.97 2%
400 Free - 3:55.0 to 3:51.4 1.6%
400 IM - 4:49.57 to 4:43.2 2.3%
100 Br - 1:04.0 to 1:02.36 2.5%
100 Bk - 1:04.12 to 1:02.31 2.6%
200 Free - 1:51.1 to 1:48.76 2.2%
Ok - to be fair, people are getting faster, but I would guess at least a 1.5% drop across the board for the suit -- that is net time !
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Based on this, I make a prediction right now -- I will come very close to my PR in the 100 Free this summer, and I should not be able to do so by any normal means.
This is (probably) my last post on the topic. Yes, there is good evidence the suit is making some impact. But correlation does not imply causation. You need to control for other variables that could also be influencing the outcome. Based on your data, it looks like we can confidently say the suits are "correlated" with improved performance. We cannot yet say the suits "cause" improved performance - it seems like semantics but this is a material difference and is covered in Stats 101. The importance of fthis distinction comes to mind when considering the recent drowning study...but I'll avoid that can of worms.
The 2.3% improvement in four vs. 20 years is interesting, but do we know for a fact the overall rate of improvement is supposed to be linear over time? What if it's exponential until it reaches some plateau?
I wore a body suit for the first time a few weeks ago. It definitely feels fast--I felt like I was all shaved down. I went faster than expected in a couple races, and slower than expected in a couple races. I hope you get close to your PR this summer--that sounds like a worthy and exciting goal.
But if you rely on a suit to take the last step for you, there's a good chance you'll be disappointed. Plus, say you do go a PR with the suit--if you believe it is only 1-2% faster than you would have gone otherwise, think of all the little training things you can do to go even faster--or to get the same time w/o a magic suit! In a 100FR, 1% can be a start, turn, and one less breath! (you aren't Garett Weber-Gale, are you? I'm assuming you're a standard masters swimmer)
Based on this, I make a prediction right now -- I will come very close to my PR in the 100 Free this summer, and I should not be able to do so by any normal means.
This is (probably) my last post on the topic. Yes, there is good evidence the suit is making some impact. But correlation does not imply causation. You need to control for other variables that could also be influencing the outcome. Based on your data, it looks like we can confidently say the suits are "correlated" with improved performance. We cannot yet say the suits "cause" improved performance - it seems like semantics but this is a material difference and is covered in Stats 101. The importance of fthis distinction comes to mind when considering the recent drowning study...but I'll avoid that can of worms.
The 2.3% improvement in four vs. 20 years is interesting, but do we know for a fact the overall rate of improvement is supposed to be linear over time? What if it's exponential until it reaches some plateau?
I wore a body suit for the first time a few weeks ago. It definitely feels fast--I felt like I was all shaved down. I went faster than expected in a couple races, and slower than expected in a couple races. I hope you get close to your PR this summer--that sounds like a worthy and exciting goal.
But if you rely on a suit to take the last step for you, there's a good chance you'll be disappointed. Plus, say you do go a PR with the suit--if you believe it is only 1-2% faster than you would have gone otherwise, think of all the little training things you can do to go even faster--or to get the same time w/o a magic suit! In a 100FR, 1% can be a start, turn, and one less breath! (you aren't Garett Weber-Gale, are you? I'm assuming you're a standard masters swimmer)
