Some quick numbers on the new suits

it took a 1:47.0 to make the final of the 200. another thing that has changed a lot over the past 4 years is the infusion of money into the sport that allows good college swimmers to continue training at a high level after graduation. if you look at the makeup of the top 10 finishers of the 200free, 8 of the 10 are out of college/professional and still swimming. in 2004, 3 of the top 15 were over 22. in 2000, 4 of the top 16, and those 4 had nowhere near the resources today's professionals have. in 2000, the average age of a top 15 qualifier out of prelims in 200fr was 21.3. in 2004, 21.8. in 2008, 23 even. we're seeing more swimmers with more resources, who are more physically mature. i think this has just as much to do with the time drops, if not more, than some swimsuit.

Usually the numbers I see combine the men and the women, but it would be interesting to see them split up. It would make sense to me that the tech suits (not necessarily just the LZR) help women more than men. Ehoch, I don't think people are disputing that swimming has gotten faster, but you started this thread by stating that the drop was completely due to the LZR. You seem to have backed off that a little ("I don't know how much but it is big"), but that initial assertion was the only thing I was complaining about. I think there are many factors that have contributed to recent drops. The suit is one, possibly even the dominant one. We just can't say for sure with the data we have. My friend Dave Holland found this article about WR progressions. It is not for the math-phobic, but the discussion is interesting and mostly accessible to anyone. The authors postulate ultimate ("asymptotic") limits in WRs and predict, based on their analyses, that half of these WRs will be closely approached by 2027: "Present conditions prevailing for the next 20 years, half of all WR won't be improved by more than 0.05%." This was written pre-LZR and for a number of sports, not just swimming. The authors also discuss the impact of world wars and doping on WR progressions. They note that the top 10 times in 100m women or men high jump has not changed substantially for the last 20 years. They also have some figures for swimming WRs; I have attached them. Note the piecewise model they used to fit the data, indicating that there have been periods in the past where there have been sudden drops in performance. Maybe we are starting a new one now, and in 5-10 years (or more) we will be able to look back and point to the drop that coincided with the introduction of the LZR and similar suits, as well as factors like the more common occurrence of the professional post-college swimmer (I agree with a previous poster that this has to be an important factor). I'm sure you and others get frustrated with science-talk about lack of proof of the efficacy of these suits. Keep in mind that the bar of scientific certainty is purposefully high, and is never completely satisfied. That doesn't mean that people can't or shouldn't act before all is known. I wish that a similar precautionary attitude had prevailed about global warming, but I digress...:bolt: Go buy your suit and enjoy it.

Do not come up with phony numbers here - how lame is that. The average age of the top 16 prelim swimmers in the 200 Free for 2004 was 23.2 and in 2008 it was 23.0 --- I am guessing we are putting that theory to rest ? Wasn't it Schubert who also said that in two Olympics there won't be a swimmer under 27? Or something similar. A little over-the-top but I remember reading that there has been a pretty steady progression in the average age of the US Olympic swimmer. All I know is that in my day :oldman: virtually no one swam past college, except in masters; that certainly isn't the case now.

phdude, it looks like you took out your reference to Jimmy Feigen, but it is true he broke the national HS record in the 50 wearing briefs. His time was 19.65. He went the 19.49 at the Texas state meet wearing a legskin (1% faster). I can think of a lot of reasons a talented high school swimmer drops 16/100ths in a 50 at state champs vs. a few weeks prior. The suit could be one of them. But I'll bet the pool where TX states takes place is pretty nice, and I'll bet the crowd was really fired up which got him excited. I'm pretty sure he practiced starts and turns between the 19.65 and the 19.49--tiny RT and turn improvements can easily mean a .16 difference. I'm not saying it's not the suit; I'm saying there are other factors that everyone is suddenly ignoring. Suit or no suit--would anyone actually not expect him to improve that much in his key event at the biggest scy meet of the season?

In the absence of such, suit-lovers sometimes seem to want to assign ANY and ALL improvement to the suit. Or maybe just TOUCHING a LZR suit, or glancing at one of their ads, before a race is good for 0.2%, no matter what you are wearing. Bottom line: please note that I am NOT saying these suits are ineffective. (Outrageously overpriced and prone to failure, perhaps.) But as far as I can tell this 2% number is a guesstimate, pure and simple. Now wait a minute! I just made a long list of factors that could effect race times (at least mine). The suit is definitely just one factor. However, I'm sure if I could just touch a LZR or two without ripping them, I'd drop a few tenths! Kate Ziegler's PB is probably due to her sport psychologist, not her LZR. lol

I don't think you can assert they are overpriced. You can assert they are expensive but Speedo shouldn't be expected to sell them at a loss. Part of me wonders if the cost isn't a significant part of the controversy. If this suit was $50 would folks complain so much?

I can think of a lot of reasons a talented high school swimmer drops 16/100ths in a 50 at state champs vs. a few weeks prior. The suit could be one of them. But I'll bet the pool where TX states takes place is pretty nice, and I'll bet the crowd was really fired up which got him excited. I'm pretty sure he practiced starts and turns between the 19.65 and the 19.49--tiny RT and turn improvements can easily mean a .16 difference. I'm not saying it's not the suit; I'm saying there are other factors that everyone is suddenly ignoring. Suit or no suit--would anyone actually not expect him to improve that much in his key event at the biggest scy meet of the season? I have seen Feigen swim many times although I didn't see his state swim. He is an exceptional sprinting talent. I suppose his legskin was part of this drop at the state meet. But more than anything I think he tapered for state. He was so far ahead of everyone else that he had no need to taper for regionals or districts before that. The Texas state meet is always held at UT's TSC. Feigen's regional meet was the Palo Alto (Texas) Natatorium near San Antonio. It is a championship caliber pool that has held Toyota Grand Prix events.

But let's not just focus on the suits. How about all the other factors that combine to make up a 'fast' pool? 1) Air quality 2) Water temperature 3) water density 4) currents - with 1million+ gallons of water you will have currents but they will be in tenths of knots. 5) Water purity 6) water depth - 7) Blocks - size, texture, angle 8) Air temperature 9) Air density just to list a few. Yes, most of these factors are in the tenths of % but still when a swim is measured in 100ths of a second and you are talking 1 minute + events, those are statistically significant factors. Yes, modern swim suits are faster but so are modern pool designs.

Funny how the doubters all provide one specific swimmer or one comment by a swimmer, when the overall numbers simply show a massive shift in times. Comparing the top 8 times (or top 16 or top 25 in the world) is about as good a comparisons as you will get. It does not involve particular swimmers and it takes out the "freak factor" (somebody like Phelps). Today - Women's 200 Free it took 1:59.98 for top 16. The last two trials it took 2:02.6 and 2:02.5. There were 46 girls under 2:02 this morning. There were 8 in prelims at Long Beach.

Um, Hoff's American Record was set wearing a LZR back in May. Tonight's swim by Ziegler was a personal best. I was really rooting for Ziegler to make the team, I'm glad she did. Despite no records, it was a great race, with four swimmers more or less even at the 300. (Hoff's AR was set in February, I believe.)