Yes - one more time it's about the suit:
Here is a comparison to 2004 and what it took to make top 16 (top 8 for the 400) over the first 7 events:
2004 listed first then 2008 then the approx. % drop
400 IM - 4:24.8 to 4:21.0 1.5%
100 Fly - 1:01.29 to 59.97 2%
400 Free - 3:55.0 to 3:51.4 1.6%
400 IM - 4:49.57 to 4:43.2 2.3%
100 Br - 1:04.0 to 1:02.36 2.5%
100 Bk - 1:04.12 to 1:02.31 2.6%
200 Free - 1:51.1 to 1:48.76 2.2%
Ok - to be fair, people are getting faster, but I would guess at least a 1.5% drop across the board for the suit -- that is net time !
Usually the numbers I see combine the men and the women, but it would be interesting to see them split up. It would make sense to me that the tech suits (not necessarily just the LZR) help women more than men.
Ehoch, I don't think people are disputing that swimming has gotten faster, but you started this thread by stating that the drop was completely due to the LZR. You seem to have backed off that a little ("I don't know how much but it is big"), but that initial assertion was the only thing I was complaining about.
I think there are many factors that have contributed to recent drops. The suit is one, possibly even the dominant one. We just can't say for sure with the data we have.
My friend Dave Holland found this article about WR progressions. It is not for the math-phobic, but the discussion is interesting and mostly accessible to anyone. The authors postulate ultimate ("asymptotic") limits in WRs and predict, based on their analyses, that half of these WRs will be closely approached by 2027: "Present conditions prevailing for the next 20 years, half of all WR won't be improved by more than 0.05%." This was written pre-LZR and for a number of sports, not just swimming.
The authors also discuss the impact of world wars and doping on WR progressions. They note that the top 10 times in 100m women or men high jump has not changed substantially for the last 20 years.
They also have some figures for swimming WRs; I have attached them. Note the piecewise model they used to fit the data, indicating that there have been periods in the past where there have been sudden drops in performance. Maybe we are starting a new one now, and in 5-10 years (or more) we will be able to look back and point to the drop that coincided with the introduction of the LZR and similar suits, as well as factors like the more common occurrence of the professional post-college swimmer (I agree with a previous poster that this has to be an important factor).
I'm sure you and others get frustrated with science-talk about lack of proof of the efficacy of these suits. Keep in mind that the bar of scientific certainty is purposefully high, and is never completely satisfied. That doesn't mean that people can't or shouldn't act before all is known. I wish that a similar precautionary attitude had prevailed about global warming, but I digress...:bolt:
Go buy your suit and enjoy it.
Usually the numbers I see combine the men and the women, but it would be interesting to see them split up. It would make sense to me that the tech suits (not necessarily just the LZR) help women more than men.
Ehoch, I don't think people are disputing that swimming has gotten faster, but you started this thread by stating that the drop was completely due to the LZR. You seem to have backed off that a little ("I don't know how much but it is big"), but that initial assertion was the only thing I was complaining about.
I think there are many factors that have contributed to recent drops. The suit is one, possibly even the dominant one. We just can't say for sure with the data we have.
My friend Dave Holland found this article about WR progressions. It is not for the math-phobic, but the discussion is interesting and mostly accessible to anyone. The authors postulate ultimate ("asymptotic") limits in WRs and predict, based on their analyses, that half of these WRs will be closely approached by 2027: "Present conditions prevailing for the next 20 years, half of all WR won't be improved by more than 0.05%." This was written pre-LZR and for a number of sports, not just swimming.
The authors also discuss the impact of world wars and doping on WR progressions. They note that the top 10 times in 100m women or men high jump has not changed substantially for the last 20 years.
They also have some figures for swimming WRs; I have attached them. Note the piecewise model they used to fit the data, indicating that there have been periods in the past where there have been sudden drops in performance. Maybe we are starting a new one now, and in 5-10 years (or more) we will be able to look back and point to the drop that coincided with the introduction of the LZR and similar suits, as well as factors like the more common occurrence of the professional post-college swimmer (I agree with a previous poster that this has to be an important factor).
I'm sure you and others get frustrated with science-talk about lack of proof of the efficacy of these suits. Keep in mind that the bar of scientific certainty is purposefully high, and is never completely satisfied. That doesn't mean that people can't or shouldn't act before all is known. I wish that a similar precautionary attitude had prevailed about global warming, but I digress...:bolt:
Go buy your suit and enjoy it.
