Let's pick the lock: what will Phelps swim at trials/Beijing

Between Crocker, Piersol, and a mixed bag of sprint freestylers... The only guy safe from having his medal contended with is Brendan Hansen. Lochte may just be the dark horse in all of this. His sprinting ability has really been showcased these past two years. And the underwater kicking is every bit as impressive as Phelps. The IM races should be neck and neck. Just wondering....is Kitajima not swimming in Beijing? If he is, how far off is he from Hansen's current times?

Top 5 100 *** times according to FINA..... 1 HANSEN Brendan USA 1981 59.61 Qual OG 08 / 2008 All-American LC Championships Austin, USA 06-03-2008 2 KITAJIMA Kosuke JPN 1982 59.66 Qual OG 08 / Japan Swim 2008 Tokyo, JPN 15-04-2008 3 DALE OEN Alexander NOR 1985 59.76 Qual OG 08 / 29th LEN European Swimming Championships Eindhoven, NED 18-03-2008 4 DUBOSCQ Hugues FRA 1981 59.78 Qual OG 08 / 29th LEN European Swimming Championships Eindhoven, NED 18-03-2008 5 COOK Christopher GBR 1979 59.88 Qual OG 08 / British Swimming Championships Sheffield, GBR 31-03-2008 In the 200, with the time he swam this weekend, Brendan is 10th with a 2:10.62. Right behind Eric Shanteau.

Should have said... "The only guy safe from having his medal contended with (by Phelps) is Brendan Hansen." Yeah, BH and Kickajima will always have that rivalry.

order of events is here: www.h2omaha.com/.../swimming-trials-events.pdf Looking at that a couple of things pop out to me: 1. Its kind of a crappy draw given Michael's skills, the event that he clearly dominates (200 fly) isn't doubled with any other finals to give him some rest, but you play with the hand you are dealt with. 2. Day 3 features the men's 2 free and the 1 back separated by just one event for finals, with 200 IM semis at the end of it. That rules out the 100 back it would seem 3. Day 5 has the 200 back semis/prelims, 200 IM semis/prelims, and 100 free finals. Even assuming that he cruises his prelims and semis, that is still a lot of swims. 4. More importantly, day 6 features 200 back and 200 IM finals basically back to back.

OK,,,now I'm changing my mind. Phelps has had a rough year. I don't think he will be able to repeat his 200FR time from last year. I don't think the 400Fr is a possibility either. The choice of events this past weekend were a bit of a surprise. I sense a little bit of panic on Bowmans part. I'm sure he will swim and win the 400IM, although the Hungarian will give him all he can handle. I don't think the Americans will take gold in the 400FR relay in China and I think Phelps knows it. He is going to have to swim 6 individual events to get the magic record. That means taking down both Piersol and Crocker in the 100. Oops, did I just put that in writing. I expect a pretty lack luster freestype performance from him at the trials. He is going to need a win in the 100 fly and 100 back to make it happen! Did you see that split on the 100 back this past weekend- wow...:duel:

order of events is here: www.h2omaha.com/.../swimming-trials-events.pdf Looking at that a couple of things pop out to me: 1. Its kind of a crappy draw given Michael's skills, the event that he clearly dominates (200 fly) isn't doubled with any other finals to give him some rest, but you play with the hand you are dealt with. 2. Day 3 features the men's 2 free and the 1 back separated by just one event for finals, with 200 IM semis at the end of it. That rules out the 100 back it would seem 3. Day 5 has the 200 back semis/prelims, 200 IM semis/prelims, and 100 free finals. Even assuming that he cruises his prelims and semis, that is still a lot of swims. 4. More importantly, day 6 features 200 back and 200 IM finals basically back to back. I shu=ould have looked up the schedule, because you are right on about point 2. The 200 fly (not IM) semi isn't a big deal for Phelps, he can go a 1:56-57 easily (and it is after the hard races), but having two finals in a row will be tough! Lochte was in the same predicament in 2004 and flat out didn't bother with the 100 back. Seems like the smart thing to do. Regarding the 100 back being deeper than the 100 fly. I think more people will go under 51 (fly) than 53 (back). We'll see...

OK,,,now I'm changing my mind. Phelps has had a rough year. I don't think he will be able to repeat his 200FR time from last year. I don't think the 400Fr is a possibility either. The choice of events this past weekend were a bit of a surprise. I sense a little bit of panic on Bowmans part. I'm sure he will swim and win the 400IM, although the Hungarian will give him all he can handle. I don't think the Americans will take gold in the 400FR relay in China and I think Phelps knows it. He is going to have to swim 6 individual events to get the magic record. That means taking down both Piersol and Crocker in the 100. Oops, did I just put that in writing. I expect a pretty lack luster freestype performance from him at the trials. He is going to need a win in the 100 fly and 100 back to make it happen! Did you see that split on the 100 back this past weekend- wow...:duel: I'm hoping that was dripping with sarcasim ... seriously a bad year? On what planet?

I would wait until trials to make declarations about the chances or non-chances of the 4x100 relay. I think psychologically people are comparing 2008 Australia/France with the the 2007 U.S. Team. If those nations's trials changed the complexion of the event then why not Omaha? Lezak swam the best in-season time of his career at the Meet of Champions a few weeks ago (48.75). Grevers and Weber-Gale have already been 48.5 recently. Phelps went a PB in Ohio unrested (48.41) ... a meet where he was well off his best times in other events. I think there is potential for those four. Beyond these four swimmers there is teenager Nathan Adrian. The SC World Champion seems to improve at every big meet. I'm certain he'll be under 49/sec the only question is how far. Remember at the French trials only one swimmer broke 48. The Australian top four swimmers actually just nip the French team if you add up their trials times. But again only one swimmer under 48 at the Aussie trials. If the US can get three or four swimmers to tickle around the 48 mark in trials then they're in good shape.

the big issue Phelps and Bowman are considering is the order of events at Trials and the Olympics look at how they fall and which FINAL events will he have to swim back to back He's OK with semifinals, he can hold back some and swim for time or place. he will swim the Bolded events 100 fl, 200 fr, fl, & IM and the 400 IM he may swim the 100 back because it falls favorably in the meet order he will probably swim the 100 Free though he could just let his time stand I have a feeling it will take 48.2 - 48.4 to make top 6 BUT if he swims the 200 BK he will have a challenging session in Thursday's Finals and very difficult session on the Friday July 4th Finals because the 200 bk final is before the 200 IM Final, then the 100 fly semi final follows both Lochte will swim the 200 BK & 200 IM I bet Phelps lets lochte and piersol fight out the 200 bk US Olympic Trials order of events (I believe the Olympic order of events is the same) Sunday June 29 - Preliminaries - 11:00 a.m. 400 IM – men 100 Fly – women 400 Free – men 400 IM – women 100 *** – men Sunday June 29 – Finals - 6:45 p.m. 400 IM – men - FINAL 100 Fly – women - semifinal 400 Free –men – FINAL 400 IM – women – FINAL 100 *** – men – semifinal Monday June 30 - Preliminaries - 11:00 a.m. 100 Back – women 200 Free – men 100 *** – women 100 Back – men 400 Free – women Monday June 30 – Finals - 6:45 p.m. 100 Back – women - semifinal 200 Free – men – semifinal 100 Fly – women - FINAL 100 *** – men - FINAL 100 *** – women - semifinal 100 Back – men - semifinal 400 Free – women – FINAL Tuesday July 1 - Preliminaries - 11:00 a.m. 200 Free – women 200 Fly – men 200 IM – women Tuesday July 1 – Finals - 6:45 p.m. 200 Free – women – semifinal 200 Free – men - FINAL 100 Back – women - FINAL 100 Back – men - FINAL 100 *** – women - FINAL 200 Fly – men - semifinal 200 IM – women – semifinal Wednesday July 2 - Preliminaries - 11:00 a.m. 100 Free – men 200 Fly – women 200 *** – men Wednesday July 2 - Finals - 6:45 p.m. 100 Free – men - semifinal 200 Free – women – FINAL 200 Fly – men - FINAL 200 Fly – women - semifinal 200 *** – men - semifinal 200 IM – women – FINAL Thursday July 3 - Preliminaries - 11:00 a.m. 100 Free – women 200 Back – men 200 *** – women 200 IM – men Thursday July 3 – Finals - 6:45 p.m. 200 *** – men - FINAL 100 Free – women – semifinal 200 Back – men - semifinal 200 Fly – women - FINAL 100 Free – men - FINAL 200 *** – women - semifinal 200 IM – men – semifinal Friday July 4 - Preliminaries - 11:00 a.m. 50 Free – men 800 Free – women 100 Fly – men 200 Back – women Friday July 4 - Finals - 6:45 p.m. 50 Free – men - semifinal 200 *** – women - FINAL 200 Back – men – FINAL 200 Back – women - semifinal 200 IM – men - FINAL 100 Free – women - FINAL 100 Fly – men – semifinal Saturday July 5 - Preliminaries - 11:00 a.m. 50 Free – women 1500 Free – men Saturday July 5 - Finals - 6:45 p.m. 200 Back – women - FINAL 100 Fly – men - FINAL 800 Free – women - FINAL 50 Free – men - FINAL 50 Free – women – semifinal July 6 - Sunday No Preliminaries July 6 - Sunday Finals - 6:45 p.m. 50 Free – women - FINAL 1500 Free – men - FINAL