Let's pick the lock: what will Phelps swim at trials/Beijing
Former Member
It's supposed to be a secret, but what will the boy swim this summer?
Definite, TRIALS
200 fly
200 IM
400 IM
200 free (especially for 800 free relay)
Probable, TRIALS
100 fly (especially for 400 medley relay)
100 free
Maybe, TRIALS
200 back
400 free??? (I have NO idea; it doesn't seem like he's training for it)
Definite, BEIJING
200 fly
200 IM
400 IM
But what would his other 2 individual events be?
EDIT: mod edited for me!
Parents
Former Member
order of events is here: www.h2omaha.com/.../swimming-trials-events.pdf
Looking at that a couple of things pop out to me:
1. Its kind of a crappy draw given Michael's skills, the event that he clearly dominates (200 fly) isn't doubled with any other finals to give him some rest, but you play with the hand you are dealt with.
2. Day 3 features the men's 2 free and the 1 back separated by just one event for finals, with 200 IM semis at the end of it. That rules out the 100 back it would seem
3. Day 5 has the 200 back semis/prelims, 200 IM semis/prelims, and 100 free finals. Even assuming that he cruises his prelims and semis, that is still a lot of swims.
4. More importantly, day 6 features 200 back and 200 IM finals basically back to back.
I shu=ould have looked up the schedule, because you are right on about point 2. The 200 fly (not IM) semi isn't a big deal for Phelps, he can go a 1:56-57 easily (and it is after the hard races), but having two finals in a row will be tough! Lochte was in the same predicament in 2004 and flat out didn't bother with the 100 back. Seems like the smart thing to do.
Regarding the 100 back being deeper than the 100 fly. I think more people will go under 51 (fly) than 53 (back). We'll see...
order of events is here: www.h2omaha.com/.../swimming-trials-events.pdf
Looking at that a couple of things pop out to me:
1. Its kind of a crappy draw given Michael's skills, the event that he clearly dominates (200 fly) isn't doubled with any other finals to give him some rest, but you play with the hand you are dealt with.
2. Day 3 features the men's 2 free and the 1 back separated by just one event for finals, with 200 IM semis at the end of it. That rules out the 100 back it would seem
3. Day 5 has the 200 back semis/prelims, 200 IM semis/prelims, and 100 free finals. Even assuming that he cruises his prelims and semis, that is still a lot of swims.
4. More importantly, day 6 features 200 back and 200 IM finals basically back to back.
I shu=ould have looked up the schedule, because you are right on about point 2. The 200 fly (not IM) semi isn't a big deal for Phelps, he can go a 1:56-57 easily (and it is after the hard races), but having two finals in a row will be tough! Lochte was in the same predicament in 2004 and flat out didn't bother with the 100 back. Seems like the smart thing to do.
Regarding the 100 back being deeper than the 100 fly. I think more people will go under 51 (fly) than 53 (back). We'll see...
