Let's pick the lock: what will Phelps swim at trials/Beijing

No way he swims 100 back. He is the WR holder in 200 free he will swim it. Definite for Trials: 200fly 200im 400im 200free 100 fly (prove he can beat Crocker) 100 free (he'll be no worse than #3, could be #1) 200 back (no worse than #2, could be #1) He'll choose the best 6. He'll be on three relays.

I think we'll see this in Beijing: 100 fly 200 fly 200 IM 400 IM 200 Free 400 free relay 800 free relay 400 medley relay Golds: 8 Just my guess. I agree. Sticking with the program from last year's World Championships seems smartest. As Fly Queen mentioned I remember Phelps commenting that the 200 back hurts more than any other event for him because it kills his legs. I don't know if he'll win eight golds but it will be fun watching him try.

Nothing other than being .03 off of Peirsol's WR last year ... He took it out in a moderate pace, saw he was a little behind at the wall...and only started moving after the turn. If he went faster on the way he'd own that record too.

200 back (no worse than #2, could be #1) Lochte, Peirsol... both guys could place above him in the 200 back.

I think if people are counting anyone out it is Lochte. Everyone has seen Peirsol beat out Phelps in the 200 at the touch multiple times, so it would be silly to count him out, but unless I'm mistaken Lochte has never raced Phelps in the 200 back. The most sick thing about the whole situation is I don't think anyone would be surprised of someone breaking the old world record doesn't even make the team if Phelps swims. Also, there is no need for Phelps to prove he can beat Crocker, the only thing he needs to do is break Crocker's WR, as Phelps has won head to head many times, most recently at Melbourne.

On a comparitive basis, Phleps 100 back is closer to Peirsol than his 100 fly is to Crocker. If both are at 100% Phelps would probably lose to Crocker in 100 fly. Phelps would beat Piersol under the same proposition because the 53.01 kind of came out of nowhere at just a mid-major meet. Entries are due really soon, he enters: 100 free 100 fly 100 back 200IM 200Fly 200 Free 200 Back 400IM He never gets in the water for the 200 back though, only swims prelims in the 100 free (like Ande suggested). If he smashes the WR in the 100 back at trials, he might drop the 400 IM at the Olympics. Now is not a time to be experimenting, he swam the 100 back this weekend because he is strongly considering it.

Why drop the 400 IM? That's a sure fire gold for him.

Lefty, he swam the 200 back. Does that mean he's considering it? Realistically, the 100 fly is less competitive at the top end than the 100 back. It's much deeper than just Peirsol. You have Lochte, Bal, and others at US Trials. Then you have swimmers like Tancock, Meeuw, etc internationally who are much more in the thick of things than the other rivals besides Crocker in the 100 fly. Tancock ripped the 50m back record by an astonishing .4 seconds. But he declined to swim the 100 back at the same meet (UK Trials) since he already qualified for the team from his podium finish at Worlds last year. To give you an idea ... Tancock finished third in the 50 backstroke at World Championships in 25.2. A full 8/10ths slower than what he swam this year. He won the bronze in the 100 back there in 53.6. If you extrapolate the 50 WR to his 100 he's well below 53sec. His best time last year in the 100 is 53.46. His 50 back time is ominous for what he might do in the 100. He has a 1:57 200IM so he's got the endurance. Then you have Meeuw who went 53.10 at the German trials to break the European Record. Granted, he has yet to clear the hurdle of performing at the big international events. Yet, it's clear that the 100 fly doesn't have this depth. So I believe the 100 fly is looking better for two reasons: 1. The 100 back is much less of a two man show 2. The 100 fly fits into his schedule better. The 100 back and the 200 free in the same session seems unpalatable. He shouldn't be taking PVK and Park for granted. If he decides to crowd that day with two events he will hurt his chances at winning both. His best option is to swim the same program he did at Worlds and perhaps the 100 free prelim heats at trials. He should swim the 400IM as it's on the first day of morning finals and it doesn't conflict with other events.

he won't swim the 50 fr, 1,500 fr, 100 br, & 200 br he could swim the 400 free but probably not Michael will to swim the 100 & 200 fly 200 & 400 IM 200 free he has an excellent 100 & 200 back so probably the 200 back & 100 backstroke he comes home amazingly fast in the both the 100 & 200 bk probably the 100 free so he will have a time from Olympic Trials to get on the 4 x 100 relay and not have the controversy he faced in 2004 where he didn't swim the 100 free but swam it on a relay at the Olympics much to Gary Hall's dismay and protest. I would have him swim it once, post a blazing time then scratch the semi's and finals, but he'll probably swim all the way through He's amazing at back to back events in the same session It's supposed to be a secret, but what will the boy swim this summer? Definite, TRIALS 200 fly 200 IM 400 IM 200 free (especially for 800 free relay) Probable, TRIALS 100 fly (especially for 400 medley relay) 100 free Maybe, TRIALS 200 back 400 free??? (I have NO idea; it doesn't seem like he's training for it) Definite, BEIJING 200 fly 200 IM 400 IM But what would his other 2 individual events be? EDIT: mod edited for me!

I was talking about his 100 back at last summer nats last year. He was definitely going for the record and I believe went a 53.01 ... that's off the top of my head. I think he swims the 100 back AND the 200 free. That's what I meant too. Summer Nats. The guy in the next lane went out in WR pace. When Phelps saw he was losing ground at the flags... he pounded out his trademark 15 meters of dolphin kick, and split the fastest back half 50 ever....just missing the record. abcnews.go.com/.../wireStory Between Crocker, Piersol, and a mixed bag of sprint freestylers... The only guy safe from having his medal contended with is Brendan Hansen. Lochte may just be the dark horse in all of this. His sprinting ability has really been showcased these past two years. And the underwater kicking is every bit as impressive as Phelps. The IM races should be neck and neck.