Let's pick the lock: what will Phelps swim at trials/Beijing

Lefty, he swam the 200 back. Does that mean he's considering it? Realistically, the 100 fly is less competitive at the top end than the 100 back. It's much deeper than just Peirsol. You have Lochte, Bal, and others at US Trials. Then you have swimmers like Tancock, Meeuw, etc internationally who are much more in the thick of things than the other rivals besides Crocker in the 100 fly. Tancock ripped the 50m back record by an astonishing .4 seconds. But he declined to swim the 100 back at the same meet (UK Trials) since he already qualified for the team from his podium finish at Worlds last year. To give you an idea ... Tancock finished third in the 50 backstroke at World Championships in 25.2. A full 8/10ths slower than what he swam this year. He won the bronze in the 100 back there in 53.6. If you extrapolate the 50 WR to his 100 he's well below 53sec. His best time last year in the 100 is 53.46. His 50 back time is ominous for what he might do in the 100. He has a 1:57 200IM so he's got the endurance. Then you have Meeuw who went 53.10 at the German trials to break the European Record. Granted, he has yet to clear the hurdle of performing at the big international events. Yet, it's clear that the 100 fly doesn't have this depth. So I believe the 100 fly is looking better for two reasons: 1. The 100 back is much less of a two man show 2. The 100 fly fits into his schedule better. The 100 back and the 200 free in the same session seems unpalatable. He shouldn't be taking PVK and Park for granted. If he decides to crowd that day with two events he will hurt his chances at winning both. His best option is to swim the same program he did at Worlds and perhaps the 100 free prelim heats at trials. He should swim the 400IM as it's on the first day of morning finals and it doesn't conflict with other events.

Lefty, he swam the 200 back. Does that mean he's considering it? Realistically, the 100 fly is less competitive at the top end than the 100 back. It's much deeper than just Peirsol. You have Lochte, Bal, and others at US Trials. Then you have swimmers like Tancock, Meeuw, etc internationally who are much more in the thick of things than the other rivals besides Crocker in the 100 fly. Tancock ripped the 50m back record by an astonishing .4 seconds. But he declined to swim the 100 back at the same meet (UK Trials) since he already qualified for the team from his podium finish at Worlds last year. To give you an idea ... Tancock finished third in the 50 backstroke at World Championships in 25.2. A full 8/10ths slower than what he swam this year. He won the bronze in the 100 back there in 53.6. If you extrapolate the 50 WR to his 100 he's well below 53sec. His best time last year in the 100 is 53.46. His 50 back time is ominous for what he might do in the 100. He has a 1:57 200IM so he's got the endurance. Then you have Meeuw who went 53.10 at the German trials to break the European Record. Granted, he has yet to clear the hurdle of performing at the big international events. Yet, it's clear that the 100 fly doesn't have this depth. So I believe the 100 fly is looking better for two reasons: 1. The 100 back is much less of a two man show 2. The 100 fly fits into his schedule better. The 100 back and the 200 free in the same session seems unpalatable. He shouldn't be taking PVK and Park for granted. If he decides to crowd that day with two events he will hurt his chances at winning both. His best option is to swim the same program he did at Worlds and perhaps the 100 free prelim heats at trials. He should swim the 400IM as it's on the first day of morning finals and it doesn't conflict with other events.