Dolphin 2 - I agree with much of what you say about the suits. But the quote above is from you. Your statement essentially discredits what Phelps may do in Beijing because he is wearing a LZR. If he wins 6, 7, or 8 gold medals, is his performance dumbed down?
There are two distinct statistics when it comes to the issue of speed.
The speed of a given swimmer relative to the speed of another swimmer under the same conditions. Since this is a function of individual skill rather than mechanized aids, the suit is immaterial so why are suit makers trying to claim part of the glory about who won a race when they were wearing their brand?
The World's Record speed which is a quantity based on pure magnitude itself and not relative speed. If suits (or other variables) are responsible for increased speed, then Phelp's world's records would indeed be achieved through artifical means and the speed would have to be "de-rated" to take any advantage into account. Accordingly, it would be interesting to see what the world's records would actually be if "old fashoined" briefs were the standard instead of tech suits.
As I've said til I'm getting blue in the face, swimming is about the swimmers themselves -not the technology of their swim suits- and if we could just go back to simple briefs -which play a very minimal role in performance- all the controversy over what is -or isn't- an acheivement would not exist.
Dolphin 2
I have a pretty strong feeling that if Phelps wore old-school briefs and no cap he'd still be getting gold medals and world records. I don't care how fancy the suits are, I can't imagine that they would account for the seconds that he's ahead of the competition (and old records) in some of his events.
There's no doubt that suits like the LZR make it a bit easier to break records but I bet if Speedo had never invented it you would still see a lot of records falling this year.
We should probably ban caps as well. They don't cover any private parts and don't provide any critical safety feature. Swimmers wear them specifically to go faster. I hereby renounce all records broken wearing caps. If you've ever worn a cap in competition, you are a technological doper. Congratulations, cheaters.
Hi Daaaave:
You're probably right.
They didn't have caps back in my high school swim team days (the late 1960s and early 70s). I am seriously wondering exactly what the results would be if contemporary swimming was performed with the "absolute minimum". :weightlifter:
Dolphin 2
And Jessica Hardy put herself in contention with a 54.54 swim last month. Also don't forget about Kara Lynn Joyce.
I'm on the fence with Hardy (in the freestyle)... but she did have one :censor: of a meet at SC Worlds! I think KJo will do better in the 50.
And France or Australia will win the 4x100 free relay.
I doubt you'd have said that before the French and Australian trials so why rule out the US as contenders for Gold before the US trials? It's a bit premature.
I do agree that it will be tough for Phelps to get the 7th and 8th but it's too early to conclude it's beyond his reach.
We should probably ban caps as well. They don't cover any private parts and don't provide any critical safety feature. Swimmers wear them specifically to go faster. I hereby renounce all records broken wearing caps. If you've ever worn a cap in competition, you are a technological doper. Congratulations, cheaters.
Not sure where FR and AUS are in their olympic preparations, but the USA hasn't had their trials yet, so it's not hard to see making up the difference.
I believe both the Frogs and Aussies have already had their trials.
I'd say the Frogs are the favorites right now, but all three teams have a shot. I wouldn't totally count out the RSA team, either.
Very interesting,
Take the top four of France, Australia , and the US, and here's what you've got:
FR..........3:12.42
AUS........3:13.01
USA........3:14.19
Not sure where FR and AUS are in their olympic preparations, but the USA hasn't had their trials yet, so it's not hard to see making up the difference.
Rank Time IPS Athlete YoB Nat Meet
1 47.50 1020 BERNARD, Alain 1983 FRA EUR08MAR
2 47.52 1019 SULLIVAN, Eamon 1985 AUS AUSLCMAR
3 48.02 1004 GILOT, Fabien 1984 FRA FRALCAPR
4 48.34 995 CIELO, Cesar A. 1987 BRA OSUAPR
5 48.36 994 TARGETT, Matthew 1986 AUS AUSLCMAR
6 48.38 994 LEVEAUX, Amaury 1985 FRA FRALCAPR
7 48.40 993 NYSTRAND, Stefan 1981 SWE EUR08MAR
8 48.41 993 SCHOEMAN, Roland 1980 RSA RSALCAPR
48.41 993 PHELPS, Michael 1985 USA OSUAPR
9 48.45 992 LAUTERSTEIN, Andrew 1987 AUS AUSLCMAR
10 48.50 990 WEBER-GALE, Garrett 1985 USA USAAAMAR
11 48.52 990 BOUSQUET, Frederick 1981 FRA FRALCAPR
12 48.53 989 MAGNINI, Filippo 1982 ITA EUR08MAR
48.53 989 GREVERS, Matthew 1985 USA USAAAMAR
13 48.55 989 DEIBLER, Steffen 1987 GER GERLCAPR
14 48.68 985 CALLUS, Ashley 1979 AUS AUSLCMAR
15 48.75 983 LEZAK, Jason 1975 USA TYRMVAPR
16 48.81 981 DRAGANJA, Duje 1983 CRO EUR08MAR
17 48.82 981 FERNS, Lyndon 1984 RSA RSALCAPR
18 48.85 980 LAGUNOV, Evgeni 1985 RUS EUR08MAR
19 48.86 980 GRECHIN, Andrey 1987 RUS EUR08MAR
20 48.91 978 HAYDEN, Brent 1983 CAN CANLCAPR
swimnews.com/Ranking.html
Phelps won't get lucky in the 100 fly again. I don't think he can win in backstroke either. And France or Australia will win the 4x100 free relay.
so that leaves
200 fly
200 im
400 im
200 free
4 x 100 meadly
4 x 200 free
Thats 6 golds
Yep, gotta agree with this...Phelps went 49.1 this past weekend in the suit. I'm sure he will get down in the low 48s for the trails but I don't see the Americans getting into the low 47s like the frogs and the Aussies. Phelps has had a rough year. He will have big competition in the 200Fr. I think we will see more than one swim at sub 43 in the games.
