Sorry, I should have thought of this when I started my first thread on this topic.
In a nutshell, I am trying to predict who is more likely to win the 200 IM in London this summer, Michael Phelps or Ryan Lochte?
Phelps owned this event throughout the tech suit era; Lochte, however, beat Phelps at Worlds in Shanghai last summer, in the process establishing the first (of still only 2) world records since FINA banned performance-enhancing suits.
You can read the replies on the earlier thread here:
forums.usms.org/showthread.php
Couroboros had a particularly good line of reasoning, for example.
Also, Skip Montero checked out inTrade, which creates "markets" for different events (most famously elections) to allow people to put their money on predicted outcomes. It turns out, however, that anything that smacks of sports gambling is prohibited, so Olympic outcomes are not likely to be on inTrade.
But enough preamble.
Who do you think will win? I know, neither has even made the event in Trials yet, and it's possible that one or both could be bumped. But assuming they both make it, who do you think--as opposed to hope--will win?
If you need more fodder for rumination before casting your vote, check out their race at Shanghai.
Ryan Lochte, Michael Phelps - 200 IM World Record 2011 - YouTube
Pretty amazing...1:54.00 in the 200 LCM IM for Lochte.
According to the Swimming World conversion utility:
Your time of 1:54.00 in long course meters
converts to 1:37.70 in short course yards
It's possible that this conversion underestimates Lochte's yards time given that he now arguably has the best SDKs in the world.
To me, this kind of attitude transcends any hate of losing--it's more of a case of Lochte swims fast because that's who he is.
I don't know, Jim. Sure Lochte seems more interesting and likable than Phelps. But it isn't a popularity contest.
If Lochte beats Phelps repeatedly in London, analyses such as yours will praise him as a zen master of swimming. If he loses, the exact same words will be used to paint him as passionless and unfocused.
Generally I'll bet on the Michael Jordan approach over the Phil Jackson approach. Either way it will be fun to watch.
To me, this kind of attitude transcends any hate of losing--it's more of a case of Lochte swims fast because that's who he is.
I don't know, Jim. Sure Lochte seems more interesting and likable than Phelps. But it isn't a popularity contest.
If Lochte beats Phelps repeatedly in London, analyses such as yours will praise him as a zen master of swimming. If he loses, the exact same words will be used to paint him as passionless and unfocused.
Generally I'll bet on the Michael Jordan approach over the Phil Jackson approach. Either way it will be fun to watch.
