Sorry, I should have thought of this when I started my first thread on this topic.
In a nutshell, I am trying to predict who is more likely to win the 200 IM in London this summer, Michael Phelps or Ryan Lochte?
Phelps owned this event throughout the tech suit era; Lochte, however, beat Phelps at Worlds in Shanghai last summer, in the process establishing the first (of still only 2) world records since FINA banned performance-enhancing suits.
You can read the replies on the earlier thread here:
forums.usms.org/showthread.php
Couroboros had a particularly good line of reasoning, for example.
Also, Skip Montero checked out inTrade, which creates "markets" for different events (most famously elections) to allow people to put their money on predicted outcomes. It turns out, however, that anything that smacks of sports gambling is prohibited, so Olympic outcomes are not likely to be on inTrade.
But enough preamble.
Who do you think will win? I know, neither has even made the event in Trials yet, and it's possible that one or both could be bumped. But assuming they both make it, who do you think--as opposed to hope--will win?
If you need more fodder for rumination before casting your vote, check out their race at Shanghai.
Ryan Lochte, Michael Phelps - 200 IM World Record 2011 - YouTube
Pretty amazing...1:54.00 in the 200 LCM IM for Lochte.
According to the Swimming World conversion utility:
Your time of 1:54.00 in long course meters
converts to 1:37.70 in short course yards
It's possible that this conversion underestimates Lochte's yards time given that he now arguably has the best SDKs in the world.
Interesting.
Early odds are running 3 to 1 in Lochte's favor.
Those who agree with this, please feel free to explain your rationale.
Do you have any specific ideas about what Lochte will need to do to win? It seems like he widened his lead on the *** stroke leg at Shanghai, and got a great ***-to-free turn, much better SDK off that wall than Phelps. But Phelps was coming on strong at the very end, and Lochte didn't win by much.
Will he need a bigger lead this time coming into the final length? Or can he hold off Phelps' final sprint if they are neck and neck on freestyle?
Phelps hates to lose more than Lochte? Maybe. But it might also be that Lochte doesn't waste energy regretting the past or being anxious about the future. One of the quotes he gave me, which I believe he was being quite honest about, came after I asked him about what he thinks about as the time approaches for him to swim a really important race.
"Honestly," he said, "before the race I’m not thinking about anything, I’m just having fun, not even thinking about swimming, just having fun talking with fans or swimmers or anything like that but once I step on the blocks something switches in me, I’m not laid back anymore, I’m more of a racer and once I step on the blocks I’ll go toe to toe with anyone."
For those of us who get nervous, perhaps even overwrought, before a big meet, it was a real eye opener. I don't know--he just had this very unusual personality style that I think will serve him well.
When we talked, he had bandages on the knuckles of both hands. I had noticed earlier that his hands were bothering him a bit during his strength training session, and I asked him if that's how he hurt them. He said he'd hurt them two weeks earlier boxing:
Ryan: I do extra weight training on Sundays when everyone has the day off, I go to my weight coaches house and I do boxing and that’s when I do like my strong main stuff. We’ve been warming up boxing and me and him started boxing and I didn’t put tape around my hands and just destroyed them.
*
Jim: No gloves?
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Ryan: No, we wear gloves but they’re MMA gloves so you can hit harder and we were just sparring.
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Jim: Any fear whatsoever that you might break your nose the day before Olympic trials or something?
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Ryan: No. Because if it happens it happens. I’m not going to shelter myself just because it’s the Olympic year. I’m just going to keep doing what I love to do.
To me, this kind of attitude transcends any hate of losing--it's more of a case of Lochte swims fast because that's who he is.
One female blogger wrote: Ryan Lochte, quit toying with our uteri.
I suspect that if he does manage to out-Phelps Phelps in London, Lochte's world will become one giant uterus begging for his occupancy.
To me, that's arguably a stronger motivation than hating losing!
To me, this kind of attitude transcends any hate of losing--it's more of a case of Lochte swims fast because that's who he is.
I don't know, Jim. Sure Lochte seems more interesting and likable than Phelps. But it isn't a popularity contest.
If Lochte beats Phelps repeatedly in London, analyses such as yours will praise him as a zen master of swimming. If he loses, the exact same words will be used to paint him as passionless and unfocused.
Generally I'll bet on the Michael Jordan approach over the Phil Jackson approach. Either way it will be fun to watch.
Ryan Lochte, quit toying with our uteri.
:lmao:
Honestly, I think that Lochte is going to do very well this year, because he sounds hungry to win, and mentally unwilling to be number 2. I don't think he's willing to be the smiley sidekick to Phelps anymore.
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Jim: Any fear whatsoever that you might break your nose the day before Olympic trials or something?
*
Ryan: No. Because if it happens it happens. I’m not going to shelter myself just because it’s the Olympic year. I’m just going to keep doing what I love to do.
Lochte: Hey! What's this?!
us: It's bubble-wrap. Swim fans on the masters discussion board are wrapping you in it from head to toe.
Lochte: WTF?!
us: You'll be wearing this until the trials. We can't risk you getting hurt...
