For example, despite the massive knowledge accrued over the past 100 years regarding OW swims in the English Channel where safety plans and implementations are second-to-none, sometimes it just happens.
www.dover.uk.com/channelswimming
since inception, the risk for soloists seems to be about 1 in 300 crossings (6 per 1700)
in 'modern times', the risk seems to be about the same, 1 in 290 crossings (4 per 1160)
one could argue that the risk is about half of that, or 1 in 600 attempts, because the success rate ballparks somewhere around 50%. a better stat might be risk per "hour in the channel", or risk according to "hour into the swim".
number of crossings:
since 1985: 1160 = 171 + 592 + 255 + 142
2010's: 171 = 77 + 94
2000's: 592 = 92 + 87 + 83 + 64 + 75 + 44 + 52 + 42 + 28 + 25
1990's: 255 = 25 + 23 + 32 + 25 + 27 + 39 + 22 + 28 + 13 + 21
1980's: 241 = 28 + 38 + 36 + 21 + 19 + 18 + 25 + 22 + 19 + 15
Like any extreme sport, Channel swimming has risks attached to it, and over the years seven swimmers have died while attempting the swim.
1926 Rodriguez de Lara
Rodriguez de Lara, from Spain, was believed to have become the first person to drown while making a Channel swim attempt.
1954 Edward J May
On 8 September 1954, lone Englishman Edward J May is reported to have set off from Cap Gris Nez to swim to England, but without a pilot boat and against official advice. His body was found weeks later washed up in Holland.
1984 Kumar Anandan
Sri Lankan swimmer Kumar Anandan, 36, died while making his attempt. At the subsequent inquest, Coroner Richard Sturt recommended that anyone making an attempt to swim the Channel should produce a fitness certificate. Since then all swimmers have been told they must produce a medical certificate.
1988 Renata Agondi
Brazilian swimmer Renata Agondi, 25, from San Paulo, died on 23 August 1988 about eight miles off the French coast while swimming from Dover. There had been a dispute on board the escort ship about who had the final responsibility for ending a swim. As a result, guidelines were drawn up setting down a chain of command, ensuring that the pilot was the person who made the final decision about whether a swimmer should remain in the water.
1999 Fausta Marin Moreno
Mexican swimmer Fausta Marin Moreno drowned during a swim from England to France on 20 August 1999.
2001 Ueli Staub
On 11 August 2001, Swiss swimmer Ueli Staub, 37, disappeared from view when he was about a mile off the French coast having swum for 16 hours from Dover. His body was found six days later, in the sea near Ostende.
2012 Páraic Casey
Páraic Casey, a member of the Sandycove Swimming Club in Cork, Ireland began his swim at 9.13am on Saturday 21 July 2012 and became ill at around 1:30 in the morning of 22 July 2012, just 1km from the coast of France. Attempts to resuscitate him by crew on the boat and medics flown in by a French rescue helicopter were unsuccessful.
Having escorted not one but two successful crossings, I was impressed by the emphesis on safety.
i've no argument with that. here again is the first paragraph from the initial post: "... despite the massive knowledge accrued over the past 100 years regarding OW swims in the English Channel where safety plans and implementations are second-to-none, sometimes it just happens."
The key I believe would be to have an experienced pilot and observer for your swim. if a swimmer wants their EC crossing to be recognized/certified, then they need to choose a boat/pilot and an observer who are each certified by the CSA or the CS&PF (i'm also pretty sure that it is only CSA/CS&PF sanctioned swims for which the governing maritime agencies will grant permission to cross the shipping lanes, and for which France will grant permission to enter their waters and to come ashore on their coast) ... so your statement begs the question: are you saying that the CSA/CS&PF are certifying pilots and observers who are actually incompetent?
We should wait and see what was the cause of this last fatality, before we angst about the safety of the swim.until thorough data on all EC attempts (including the historical-6) are made public and the subsequent analysis completed, the logical approach is for a swimmer to assume that they are just as vulnerable as the historical record suggests, and that risk is 1-in-300 or 1-in-600 of not surviving the next ~15 hours.
Of course even then, a swimmer still has the right to believe that they are special, that "it just won't to happen to me".
It's also worth pointing out that regardless of how empowered a swimmer may feel, without an escort boat, the swimmer's chance of living through the next ~15 hours is less than 1-in-2 (because about 1/2 of the swimmers get on the boat before getting back on land) ... likely much, much less, maybe even drastically less, because the escort boat aids the swimmer with nutrition, weather and water-current monitoring, wind-chop mitigation, general navigation, shipping-lane navigation, etc...
I suspect that the EC data applies to other big swims, such as the Catalina Channel, so the thread title is simply "risk" (as opposed to "EC risk"), and the initial post starts with "For example, ..."
Having escorted not one but two successful crossings, I was impressed by the emphesis on safety.
i've no argument with that. here again is the first paragraph from the initial post: "... despite the massive knowledge accrued over the past 100 years regarding OW swims in the English Channel where safety plans and implementations are second-to-none, sometimes it just happens."
The key I believe would be to have an experienced pilot and observer for your swim. if a swimmer wants their EC crossing to be recognized/certified, then they need to choose a boat/pilot and an observer who are each certified by the CSA or the CS&PF (i'm also pretty sure that it is only CSA/CS&PF sanctioned swims for which the governing maritime agencies will grant permission to cross the shipping lanes, and for which France will grant permission to enter their waters and to come ashore on their coast) ... so your statement begs the question: are you saying that the CSA/CS&PF are certifying pilots and observers who are actually incompetent?
We should wait and see what was the cause of this last fatality, before we angst about the safety of the swim.until thorough data on all EC attempts (including the historical-6) are made public and the subsequent analysis completed, the logical approach is for a swimmer to assume that they are just as vulnerable as the historical record suggests, and that risk is 1-in-300 or 1-in-600 of not surviving the next ~15 hours.
Of course even then, a swimmer still has the right to believe that they are special, that "it just won't to happen to me".
It's also worth pointing out that regardless of how empowered a swimmer may feel, without an escort boat, the swimmer's chance of living through the next ~15 hours is less than 1-in-2 (because about 1/2 of the swimmers get on the boat before getting back on land) ... likely much, much less, maybe even drastically less, because the escort boat aids the swimmer with nutrition, weather and water-current monitoring, wind-chop mitigation, general navigation, shipping-lane navigation, etc...
I suspect that the EC data applies to other big swims, such as the Catalina Channel, so the thread title is simply "risk" (as opposed to "EC risk"), and the initial post starts with "For example, ..."
