For example, despite the massive knowledge accrued over the past 100 years regarding OW swims in the English Channel where safety plans and implementations are second-to-none, sometimes it just happens.
www.dover.uk.com/channelswimming
since inception, the risk for soloists seems to be about 1 in 300 crossings (6 per 1700)
in 'modern times', the risk seems to be about the same, 1 in 290 crossings (4 per 1160)
one could argue that the risk is about half of that, or 1 in 600 attempts, because the success rate ballparks somewhere around 50%. a better stat might be risk per "hour in the channel", or risk according to "hour into the swim".
number of crossings:
since 1985: 1160 = 171 + 592 + 255 + 142
2010's: 171 = 77 + 94
2000's: 592 = 92 + 87 + 83 + 64 + 75 + 44 + 52 + 42 + 28 + 25
1990's: 255 = 25 + 23 + 32 + 25 + 27 + 39 + 22 + 28 + 13 + 21
1980's: 241 = 28 + 38 + 36 + 21 + 19 + 18 + 25 + 22 + 19 + 15
Like any extreme sport, Channel swimming has risks attached to it, and over the years seven swimmers have died while attempting the swim.
1926 Rodriguez de Lara
Rodriguez de Lara, from Spain, was believed to have become the first person to drown while making a Channel swim attempt.
1954 Edward J May
On 8 September 1954, lone Englishman Edward J May is reported to have set off from Cap Gris Nez to swim to England, but without a pilot boat and against official advice. His body was found weeks later washed up in Holland.
1984 Kumar Anandan
Sri Lankan swimmer Kumar Anandan, 36, died while making his attempt. At the subsequent inquest, Coroner Richard Sturt recommended that anyone making an attempt to swim the Channel should produce a fitness certificate. Since then all swimmers have been told they must produce a medical certificate.
1988 Renata Agondi
Brazilian swimmer Renata Agondi, 25, from San Paulo, died on 23 August 1988 about eight miles off the French coast while swimming from Dover. There had been a dispute on board the escort ship about who had the final responsibility for ending a swim. As a result, guidelines were drawn up setting down a chain of command, ensuring that the pilot was the person who made the final decision about whether a swimmer should remain in the water.
1999 Fausta Marin Moreno
Mexican swimmer Fausta Marin Moreno drowned during a swim from England to France on 20 August 1999.
2001 Ueli Staub
On 11 August 2001, Swiss swimmer Ueli Staub, 37, disappeared from view when he was about a mile off the French coast having swum for 16 hours from Dover. His body was found six days later, in the sea near Ostende.
2012 Páraic Casey
Páraic Casey, a member of the Sandycove Swimming Club in Cork, Ireland began his swim at 9.13am on Saturday 21 July 2012 and became ill at around 1:30 in the morning of 22 July 2012, just 1km from the coast of France. Attempts to resuscitate him by crew on the boat and medics flown in by a French rescue helicopter were unsuccessful.
thanks evmo. without ever having posted on that other forum, i've lurked there quite a bit. great resource by the way, thanks!
Like that site, and like swimclub.co.uk, registration here on the usms forum is cost-free and open to the general public, so anyone who might want to comment on my posts is really free to do so here at their leisure. Loneswimmer, whom i referenced above, follows this forum, or at least used to post here.
My sense of the available data is that an attempt at an EC (or similar ow swim) would far and away be the most risky undertaking that the swimmer would undertake in their entire life.
Everest is more dangerous ....
www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/.../19074222
or
www.bmj.com/.../bmj.a2654
... but not that much more considering the security of modern life.
With their new website, CS&PF has taken a commendable (from my standpoint) step forward by including the historical 7 on their site. I'd like to see more inconvenient data published and think the ow community in general and potential aspirants especially would benefit as well by seeing it early on in their accumulation of EC knowledge.
In a post above, I quoted a paragraph from CS&PF that dismisses the risk. I'd like to see CS&PF replace that paragraph with something akin to a statement by the BMJ paper's lead author Firth, an experienced mountaineer himself:
"The majority of those who have died on Everest were in the prime of their lives, with families and friends left bereft," stresses Firth, who is an instructor in Anaesthesia at Harvard Medical School. "Mountaineering is for fun; it's not worth dying or leaving others there to die. Appropriate caution is the hallmark of the elite mountaineer – the mountain will always be there next year."
source:
www.sciencedaily.com/.../081209221709.htm
Back to your original point evmo .... I agree that a discussion developed around risk could be interesting. For example, is it moral/ethical for a charity to enter into a fundraising partnership with an extremely high-risk endeavor? But without having the inconvenient data published ahead of time, my guess is that a discussion of risk would degrade into a series of opinion statements and political hedging, especially if not started by a highly regarded leader of the OW community. Maybe someone in the executive ranks of the CS&PF will start such a thread on that other site.
thanks evmo. without ever having posted on that other forum, i've lurked there quite a bit. great resource by the way, thanks!
Like that site, and like swimclub.co.uk, registration here on the usms forum is cost-free and open to the general public, so anyone who might want to comment on my posts is really free to do so here at their leisure. Loneswimmer, whom i referenced above, follows this forum, or at least used to post here.
My sense of the available data is that an attempt at an EC (or similar ow swim) would far and away be the most risky undertaking that the swimmer would undertake in their entire life.
Everest is more dangerous ....
www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/.../19074222
or
www.bmj.com/.../bmj.a2654
... but not that much more considering the security of modern life.
With their new website, CS&PF has taken a commendable (from my standpoint) step forward by including the historical 7 on their site. I'd like to see more inconvenient data published and think the ow community in general and potential aspirants especially would benefit as well by seeing it early on in their accumulation of EC knowledge.
In a post above, I quoted a paragraph from CS&PF that dismisses the risk. I'd like to see CS&PF replace that paragraph with something akin to a statement by the BMJ paper's lead author Firth, an experienced mountaineer himself:
"The majority of those who have died on Everest were in the prime of their lives, with families and friends left bereft," stresses Firth, who is an instructor in Anaesthesia at Harvard Medical School. "Mountaineering is for fun; it's not worth dying or leaving others there to die. Appropriate caution is the hallmark of the elite mountaineer – the mountain will always be there next year."
source:
www.sciencedaily.com/.../081209221709.htm
Back to your original point evmo .... I agree that a discussion developed around risk could be interesting. For example, is it moral/ethical for a charity to enter into a fundraising partnership with an extremely high-risk endeavor? But without having the inconvenient data published ahead of time, my guess is that a discussion of risk would degrade into a series of opinion statements and political hedging, especially if not started by a highly regarded leader of the OW community. Maybe someone in the executive ranks of the CS&PF will start such a thread on that other site.
