How many yrs off and still this fast!

i am aware jeff is highly competitive in his age group - he would be very close to a top finish in his age group if he made all the open water championships.

Lance's ... er "Juan Pelota's" (his triathlon alter-ego) time was fast for what I believe it was...a prelude to an Ironman event during 2011. He's simply "testing the waters," I believe, and what better way to do it? He is not a "pure swimmer" and, I do not believe he has ever claimed to be. To gauge: fastest pro swim at Kona 2010 was Andy Potts with a 48:48. Rounding out the top 5 pros was a time of 51:26. Now wetsuits are not legal in Kona (skin suits are). So, let's take a look at Ironman Arizona swim times, shall we? John Dalhaz was 1st pro out of the water at IMAZ in a time of 47:44. Rounding out the top 5 men's pro finishers was Brandon Marsh with a time of 48:05. If he races an Ironman event this year, he will be in the 40-44 age group (birthday of 9/18/1971 and USAT takes your birthday as of the end of the year of your race). The fastest age grouper in this group at IMAZ was around 53 minutes. Drafting in this group would likely slow Juan down. Given those times, me thinkst Juan Pelota will be plenty fast in an Ironman swim. Can anyone argue he will also be plenty fast in an Ironman bike? The "limiting" factor is his run, which he is working on...having teamed up with Alberto Salazar. Just a little reality check.

you're talking about the top 20 at 'world's'... isn't that 'fast?' i have seen numerous discussions on how much a wetsuit will improve someone's time. it is my thought that the better swimmer you are the less impact a wetsuit has, that is average to below-average swimmers - both skills & fitness levels - benefit from a wetsuit most. competition level at any of the USMS open water 'national championships' can vary for a number of reasons... 'all-american' honors would be the top finish in your age group. I don't mean to say armstrong is a top five open water swimmer for his age group, but rather could quickly be competitive for the top ten AND therefore might easily have the top finish at a national championship event. Review the times for the USMS open water national championship events... I don't understand how someone argues my post is 'premature.'

you three are hilarious - 2.4 miles in open water in 50 minutes is hauling ass. bob - you make quite a few assumptions there too. We might suppose armstrong and the two triathletes have trained together too... I have never thought 'drafting' was the easiest skill to come by. No one said it was easy, but I'd bet dollars to donuts that there is not a single professional or amateur triathlete in the world that could draft better on a bike that he can, or understands it better than he does. One good reading of Analysis of drafting effects in swimming using computational fluid dynamics is all he would need. As for the time: a couple of years ago I showed up at a 4K swim. I was training for a Half Ironman at the time, not focusing on just OW. It was a lake and everyone wore wetsuits, me included. I was 56 y/o and just back into the water after being out for well over a decade - and 20 years since I raced. On top of that I did not my shoulder surgery until a year later. At the finish I was 11 out of 142 overall and spent less than 25% of the time drafting. My time was 54:22. I was surprised that I placed so high and assumed the fast swimmers didn't show up. Lance is smart enough to come to the same conclusion.

I don't understand how someone argues my post is 'premature.' It is your conclusion that is premature (not your post).

it seems as though armstrong could be a USMS all-american easily I reviewed results for the 2010 2-mile cable swim... CHAMPIONSHIP EVENT: 2-Mile Cable Championship EVENT NAME: USMS 2-Mile Cable Open Water National Championship LOCATION: Charlottesville, VA www.usms.org/.../2micblresults.pdf I am well aware no two open water swims are the same... I'll stand by my post... he might make 'all-american' honors if he entered a season of championship open waters USMS All-American means winning an OW national championship in one's age group. It is hard to generalize based on the info given: no two OW courses are exactly the same, he was wearing a wetsuit, plus I'm sure he was saving up a little for the rest of the race. Rob Jones, who has a lot of experience in OW races with and without wetsuits and appears to be about the same speed as LA, once opined that a wetsuit is worth about one minute per mile. Some USMS OW championships are fairly sparsely attended and I can definitely see LA winning his age group. I wouldn't go so far as to say it would be a given or easy -- I think he would have been trounced by LaBianco in the race you link to, for example -- but definitely a good possibility, depending on the race and who showed up.

You should look at this post: forums.usms.org/blog.php Holding 3:01-3:04s on 9x300 is excellent. I know that pool is not the same as OW but I would think LA would be *worse* in the pool (compared to OW), not better.

thanks Chris... a fair answer to the all-american question is 'it depends...' 20 minute mile pace at the mansfield dam, lake travis is fast. I've done about a half-dozen swims there, and I know at least two 'swimmers' in the water this past weekend. I signed up for the race but didn't want to drive four hours in the middle of the night to reach lake travis... whitetail deer, armadillos & raccoons on the road & likely motoring though houston's loop very close to bar closing. i was very much looking forward to a post-race breakfast taco at 'juan-in-a-million!' FYI - chaos will vouch i'm slow... and fat.

You should look at this post: forums.usms.org/blog.php Holding 3:01-3:04s on 9x300 is excellent. I know that pool is not the same as OW but I would think LA would be *worse* in the pool (compared to OW), not better. i have to say i'm not that surprised. the TDF is probably the most grueling endurance event in the world, so someone who has conquered that, and has a swimming background should be able to draw from the combination of experiences and lay down some smoking fast times in the water. (lets face it.... in the world of USMS; 3:01- 3:04's are SMOKING)

And for a bit of video of the swim www.freshwaterswimmer.com/.../