Ok, so the more they email me, the more I get nervous about the water temp. Last year it was 69 which stung to get in, but it made for a nice swimming temp. By the end, though, my fingers and toes felt a little numb, but that could have been tired (??).
But this year, it could be up to 10 degrees colder?! What to do when the coolest water I can find here in Cincinnati is 80?
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Come on Kirk(!) you know better than that. When Alan Bell beat you last year you averaged 25:35 per mile. This year you averaged 22:57 per mile. You used this years mile times, and last years race results. All things being equal Alan Bell cannot beat you in an open water swim. What can be said is that from time to time one individual may beat another individual because of some unknown variables. But when you are dealing with large numbers it becomes a different matter.
9 of the top 40 swimmes at Big Shoulders also swam a recorded 1650 in 2009 (that I could find):
Name, Pace per 100 for the 1650, pace per 100 at Big Shoulders
Andy Seibt 67.6 65.8
Alex Tyler 69.5 57.3
Ben Culver 73.5 60.7
Kirk Nelson 73.1 62.3
Will Simmons 72.5 63.0
Eney Jones 74.6 64.9
Larry Wood 75.7 66.0
Dave Pushka 77.3 66.1
Denise Brown 78.3 69.1
This is actually quite remarkable. The order of finish (save one huge exception) in the pool and in the BS was exactly the same.
When common sense and statistical evidence point to one thing and the results point to another I am skeptical. When these atypical results are reinforced by exaggerated claims (in this case 50x100's on 1:10), I become cynical.
Seibt's data does not fit. Everyone else has a spread of 9 to 12 seconds. A 1.8 spread makes no sense.
Come on Kirk(!) you know better than that. When Alan Bell beat you last year you averaged 25:35 per mile. This year you averaged 22:57 per mile. You used this years mile times, and last years race results. All things being equal Alan Bell cannot beat you in an open water swim. What can be said is that from time to time one individual may beat another individual because of some unknown variables. But when you are dealing with large numbers it becomes a different matter.
9 of the top 40 swimmes at Big Shoulders also swam a recorded 1650 in 2009 (that I could find):
Name, Pace per 100 for the 1650, pace per 100 at Big Shoulders
Andy Seibt 67.6 65.8
Alex Tyler 69.5 57.3
Ben Culver 73.5 60.7
Kirk Nelson 73.1 62.3
Will Simmons 72.5 63.0
Eney Jones 74.6 64.9
Larry Wood 75.7 66.0
Dave Pushka 77.3 66.1
Denise Brown 78.3 69.1
This is actually quite remarkable. The order of finish (save one huge exception) in the pool and in the BS was exactly the same.
When common sense and statistical evidence point to one thing and the results point to another I am skeptical. When these atypical results are reinforced by exaggerated claims (in this case 50x100's on 1:10), I become cynical.
Seibt's data does not fit. Everyone else has a spread of 9 to 12 seconds. A 1.8 spread makes no sense.
