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More Suit Change/Slower Times Data with Gender overtones

jim thornton
The two people I personally know who care most about the FINA suit change rulings are Leslie The Fortress Livingston. For all I know, you may well care about this even more than we do, but I don't know you, or if I do, you have not made clear your miseries about the suit changes. In any event, I have been arguing to Leslie that I think the new rules will have a much greater effect on men than women, who get to continue to wear what is basically pretty dab nab near to an original textile tech suit (whereas we are back to the old jammer or briefs of the Mark Spitz era.) Now that data from this year and last year has begun filtering in, I stand by this, but with less assurance than I once did. In any event, here -- gleaned from the event rankings part of USMS --are the results from the 800 LCM free in my age group and Leslie's former age group from last summer. Both include worlds and nationals times. The results are eye-opening. This year's winning time would have placed 10th last year in the men. This year's winning time for women would have placed 3rd last year for women. I know this is not even close to an apples-to-apples comparison, but it does suggest that our little flowers, once again, are proving to be the chief beneficiaries of about just every possible advantage that exists in the 21st Century! *#* *Name Age Time* Club *Meet *1* *Wood, Larry W 56 *10:16.54* TXLA *USMS 2010 Summer National Championships *2* *Guadagni, Peter M 55 *10:22.64* WCM *USMS 2010 Summer National Championships *3* *Martin, Jack R 59 *10:25.41* 1776 *USMS 2010 Summer National Championships *4* *Wasserman, Neil R 55 *10:41.26* O*H* *Cleveland State University LCM *5* *Hale, Dave 55 *10:52.61* SRM *Pacific Masters Long Course Championships *6* *Wright, Robert E 56 *10:55.70* DOC *34th Lakeside Masters Long Course Invitational *7* *Thompson, Frank L 59 *11:04.24* MICH *34th Lakeside Masters Long Course Invitational *8* *Penn, William J 59 *11:06.07* PNA *2010 Northwest Zone LCM *9* *Ditolla, Robert J 56 *11:08.65* ARIZ *2010 AZ Masters LCM State Championship *10* *Leonard, Dan P 56 *11:10.48* SCAQ *FAST Masters LCM Regional and Zone Championships *#* *Name Age Time* Club *Meet *1* *Mann, Michael T 55 *9:00.09* CMS *Conejo Simi Aquatics LCM Regional and Zone Champs *2* *Townsend, R Scott 56 *9:42.16* LVM *Conejo Simi Aquatics LCM Regional and Zone Champs *3* *Gandee, Brad 55 *9:57.82* GMUP *2009 USMS National Long Course Championships *4* *Wood, Larry W 55 *10:00.88* TXLA *South Central Zone Long Course Championships *5* *Clemmons, Jim 59 *10:02.32* MAM *2009 Pacific Masters Long Course Swimming Championships *6* *Bell, Alan 59 *10:03.20* PNA *Gil Young Memorial LCM Meet/Northwest Zone Long Course Meters Meet *7* *Dodson, Phil L 56 *10:04.87* IM *2009 USMS National Long Course Championships *8* *Martin, Jack R 58 *10:11.61* 1776 *2009 USMS National Long Course Championships *9* *Penn, William J 58 *10:16.08* PNA *Gil Young Memorial LCM Meet/Northwest Zone Long Course Meters Meet *10* *Nunnelly, John N 56 *10:18.04* NEM *Bay State Games #* *Name Age Time* Club *Meet *1* *Krattli, Caroline 48 *10:15.24* SDSM *USMS 2010 Summer National Championships *2* *Welting, Laureen K 45 *10:17.33* TOC *USMS 2010 Summer National Championships *3* *Dantzler, Amy L 46 *10:21.02* WH2O *FAST Masters LCM Regional and Zone Championships *4* *Bennett, Ellen K 47 *10:27.32* SYSM *Bumpy Jones International Classic & Dixie Zone LCM Championships *5* *Matherne, Susan K 48 *10:30.59* RICE *FCST Luck of the Draw *6* *Parker Palace, Kelly 49 *10:31.27* UNAT *2010 New England LMSC LCM Championships *7* *Shuck, Susie 45 *10:32.32* ISF *34th Lakeside Masters Long Course Invitational *8* *Ramnath, Fernette P 45 *10:34.02* SYSM *USMS 2010 Summer National Championships *9* *Milanese, Barbara A 48 *10:42.63* GOLD *5th Annual June Krauser Summer Splash *10* *Schickore, Jutta 46 *10:51.33* DOC *34th Lakeside Masters Long Course Invitational *#* *Name Age Time* Club *Meet *1* *Curran, Margee M 48 *9:47.56* WCM *2009 Pacific Masters Long Course Swimming Championships *2* *Elias-Williams, Maria L 45 *10:00.40* GSMS *2009 USMS National Long Course Championships *3* *Petersen, Charlotte 45 *10:18.31* SPM *2009 St. Pete Masters Long Course Swimming Championships *4* *Swanson, Vibeke L 48 *10:38.78* 1776 *2009 Merryman LCM Swim Meet *5* *Castro, Leticia 49 *11:03.98* GOLD *JK Summer Splash-Dixie Zone Championship *6* *Fitzgerald, Kimberly H 49 *11:09.58* WMAC *Wisconsin Badger State Games *7* *Ciampa, Cindy 49 *11:15.52* SKY *2009 SwimLouisville.com Masters Invitational *8* *Gregory, Ellen D 45 *11:21.90* ISF *2009 USMS National Long Course Championships *9* *DeLozier, Anna R 46 *11:23.77* ARIZ *Arizona Long Course State Meet *10* *Uecker, Anne 49 *11:30.50* MESC *NE LCM Championship
  • How much does the Virginia calculator suggest you will slow down over your 5 year age group? And is there an age group where you slow down more than others? I think the snowball really gets rolling the older you get. Here is an admittedly flawed projection of my 200 free from Zones last spring (see age 57, red). The times in parentheses are the Finnish formula--the other times some Americanized projection. From 19-24, the projected times only get worse by less than 1 second. By the 45-49 age group, the times deteriorate by 2.7 seconds. From 65-68, almost 7 seconds. And from 90-97 (the oldest age that there is still a projected finisher, at least in Finland), by over 7 minutes! An ever-accelerating death spiral for guys like me, Leslie! 19 1:38.67 ( 1:35.26) 20 1:38.76 ( 1:35.47) 21 1:38.85 ( 1:35.68) 22 1:38.95 ( 1:35.90) 23 1:39.06 ( 1:36.14) 24 1:39.18 ( 1:36.39) 25 1:39.31 ( 1:36.65) 26 1:39.44 ( 1:36.93) 27 1:39.58 ( 1:37.22) 28 1:39.74 ( 1:37.52) 29 1:39.91 ( 1:37.84) 30 1:40.08 ( 1:38.17) 31 1:40.27 ( 1:38.52) 32 1:40.48 ( 1:38.88) 33 1:40.70 ( 1:39.25) 34 1:40.93 ( 1:39.65) 35 1:41.19 ( 1:40.06) 36 1:41.46 ( 1:40.48) 37 1:41.75 ( 1:40.93) 38 1:42.06 ( 1:41.39) 39 1:42.40 ( 1:41.87) 40 1:42.75 ( 1:42.37) 41 1:43.14 ( 1:42.89) 42 1:43.55 ( 1:43.44) 43 1:43.99 ( 1:44.00) 44 1:44.47 ( 1:44.59) 45 1:44.98 ( 1:45.20) 46 1:45.52 ( 1:45.84) 47 1:46.11 ( 1:46.50) 48 1:46.74 ( 1:47.20) 49 1:47.41 ( 1:47.92) 50 1:48.13 ( 1:48.66) 51 1:48.91 ( 1:49.45) 52 1:49.74 ( 1:50.26) 53 1:50.63 ( 1:51.11) 54 1:51.59 ( 1:51.99) 55 1:52.61 ( 1:52.92) 56 1:53.71 ( 1:53.88) 57 1:54.89 ( 1:54.89) 58 1:56.15 ( 1:55.94) 59 1:57.51 ( 1:57.05) 60 1:58.97 ( 1:58.20) 61 2:00.53 ( 1:59.41) 62 2:02.20 ( 2:00.68) 63 2:03.99 ( 2:02.01) 64 2:05.92 ( 2:03.41) 65 2:07.98 ( 2:04.88) 66 2:10.20 ( 2:06.43) 67 2:12.57 ( 2:08.06) 68 2:15.12 ( 2:09.79) 69 2:17.85 ( 2:11.61) 70 2:20.78 ( 2:13.54) 71 2:23.92 ( 2:15.59) 72 2:27.29 ( 2:17.76) 73 2:30.90 ( 2:20.08) 74 2:34.78 ( 2:22.55) 75 2:38.94 ( 2:25.20) 76 2:43.40 ( 2:28.03) 77 2:48.18 ( 2:31.08) 78 2:53.31 ( 2:34.37) 79 2:58.81 ( 2:37.94) 80 3:04.70 ( 2:41.81) 81 3:11.03 ( 2:46.03) 82 3:17.82 ( 2:50.67) 83 3:25.09 ( 2:55.78) 84 3:32.90 ( 3:01.45) 85 3:41.27 ( 3:07.78) 86 3:50.25 ( 3:14.92) 87 3:59.88 ( 3:23.03) 88 4:10.21 ( 3:32.37) 89 4:21.28 ( 3:43.26) 90 4:33.16 ( 3:56.17) 91 4:45.90 ( 4:11.81) 92 4:59.57 ( 4:31.27) 93 5:14.22 ( 4:56.38) 94 5:29.94 ( 5:30.50) 95 5:46.80 ( 6:20.64) 96 6:04.88 ( 7:44.98) 97 6:24.27 (10:55.90) 98 6:45.06 ( 0:00.00) 99 7:07.37 ( 0:00.00) 100 7:31.29 ( 0:00.00)
  • I turn 65 b 4 the next state meet & find it harder to stay even, let alone get faster.
  • Chris, thanks for posting this. The percentages are for the predicted rate of decline per year at that age, right? Why hasn't this caught up with immortals like Jim Clemmons and Jim McConica yet? Yes, per year. Below is the predicted increase as one goes thru an age-group (again, specifically for men's SCY 200 free, it will change slightly for a given gender/course/event combo). As far as those two gentlemen, you're probably right that there is some superhuman aspect involved here. :) 18-24 0.73% 25-29 0.67% 30-34 0.88% 35-39 1.14% 40-44 1.48% 45-49 1.92% 50-54 2.47% 55-59 3.15% 60-64 3.98% 65-69 4.99% 70-74 6.18% 75-79 7.54% 80-84 9.05% 85-89 10.68% 90-94 12.37% 95-99 14.06%
  • I think the snowball really gets rolling the older you get. Here is an admittedly flawed projection of my 200 free from Zones last spring (see age 57, red). The times in parentheses are the Finnish formula--the other times some Americanized projection. From 19-24, the projected times only get worse by less than 1 second. By the 45-49 age group, the times deteriorate by 2.7 seconds. From 65-68, almost 7 seconds. And from 90-97 (the oldest age that there is still a projected finisher, at least in Finland), by over 7 minutes! An ever-accelerating death spiral for guys like me, Leslie! 19 1:38.67 ( 1:35.26) 20 1:38.76 ( 1:35.47) . . . 95 5:46.80 ( 6:20.64) 96 6:04.88 ( 7:44.98) 97 6:24.27 (10:55.90) 98 6:45.06 ( 0:00.00) 99 7:07.37 ( 0:00.00) 100 7:31.29 ( 0:00.00) Here is the corresponding prediction of the VA calculator (the coefficients are 3 years old, before the super-tech suits). One piece of good news: it doesn't predict your death at age 98! Age Time % incr 18 1:40.64 19 1:40.74 0.11% 20 1:40.85 0.11% 21 1:40.97 0.12% 22 1:41.10 0.12% 23 1:41.23 0.13% 24 1:41.37 0.14% 25 1:41.52 0.15% 26 1:41.68 0.15% 27 1:41.84 0.16% 28 1:42.02 0.17% 29 1:42.20 0.18% 30 1:42.40 0.19% 31 1:42.60 0.20% 32 1:42.82 0.21% 33 1:43.05 0.22% 34 1:43.30 0.24% 35 1:43.55 0.25% 36 1:43.83 0.26% 37 1:44.11 0.28% 38 1:44.42 0.29% 39 1:44.74 0.31% 40 1:45.08 0.32% 41 1:45.44 0.34% 42 1:45.81 0.36% 43 1:46.21 0.38% 44 1:46.64 0.40% 45 1:47.08 0.42% 46 1:47.55 0.44% 47 1:48.05 0.46% 48 1:48.58 0.49% 49 1:49.14 0.51% 50 1:49.72 0.54% 51 1:50.35 0.57% 52 1:51.00 0.60% 53 1:51.70 0.63% 54 1:52.43 0.66% 55 1:53.20 0.69% 56 1:54.02 0.72% 57 1:54.89 0.76% 58 1:55.80 0.80% 59 1:56.77 0.83% 60 1:57.79 0.87% 61 1:58.87 0.92% 62 2:00.00 0.96% 63 2:01.21 1.00% 64 2:02.48 1.05% 65 2:03.82 1.10% 66 2:05.24 1.15% 67 2:06.74 1.20% 68 2:08.33 1.25% 69 2:10.01 1.31% 70 2:11.78 1.36% 71 2:13.65 1.42% 72 2:15.62 1.48% 73 2:17.71 1.54% 74 2:19.92 1.60% 75 2:22.25 1.67% 76 2:24.71 1.73% 77 2:27.32 1.80% 78 2:30.07 1.87% 79 2:32.98 1.94% 80 2:36.05 2.01% 81 2:39.29 2.08% 82 2:42.72 2.15% 83 2:46.34 2.23% 84 2:50.17 2.30% 85 2:54.22 2.38% 86 2:58.49 2.45% 87 3:03.01 2.53% 88 3:07.78 2.61% 89 3:12.83 2.69% 90 3:18.16 2.76% 91 3:23.79 2.84% 92 3:29.74 2.92% 93 3:36.02 3.00% 94 3:42.67 3.08% 95 3:49.69 3.15% 96 3:57.10 3.23% 97 4:04.94 3.31% 98 4:13.22 3.38% 99 4:21.97 3.46% 100 4:31.22 3.53%
  • Yes, per year. Below is the predicted increase as one goes thru an age-group (again, specifically for men's SCY 200 free, it will change slightly for a given gender/course/event combo). As far as those two gentlemen, you're probably right that there is some superhuman aspect involved here. :) 18-24 0.73% 25-29 0.67% 30-34 0.88% 35-39 1.14% 40-44 1.48% 45-49 1.92% 50-54 2.47% 55-59 3.15% 60-64 3.98% 65-69 4.99% 70-74 6.18% 75-79 7.54% 80-84 9.05% 85-89 10.68% 90-94 12.37% 95-99 14.06% No superhuman stuff, but given enough caffeine, you can knock down some of those so-called percentages a bit. Well, at least for me. Jim M. though, that's another story. Just kidding. Don't go starting to get all PED preaching at me, now. :anim_coffee:
  • No superhuman stuff, but given enough caffeine, you can knock down some of those so-called percentages a bit. Well, at least for me. Jim M. though, that's another story. Just kidding. Don't go starting to get all PED preaching at me, now. :anim_coffee: Nope,he got you,definitely vampire:bolt:.