The two people I personally know who care most about the FINA suit change rulings are Leslie The Fortress Livingston. For all I know, you may well care about this even more than we do, but I don't know you, or if I do, you have not made clear your miseries about the suit changes.
In any event, I have been arguing to Leslie that I think the new rules will have a much greater effect on men than women, who get to continue to wear what is basically pretty dab nab near to an original textile tech suit (whereas we are back to the old jammer or briefs of the Mark Spitz era.)
Now that data from this year and last year has begun filtering in, I stand by this, but with less assurance than I once did.
In any event, here -- gleaned from the event rankings part of USMS --are the results from the 800 LCM free in my age group and Leslie's former age group from last summer.
Both include worlds and nationals times. The results are eye-opening. This year's winning time would have placed 10th last year in the men.
This year's winning time for women would have placed 3rd last year for women.
I know this is not even close to an apples-to-apples comparison, but it does suggest that our little flowers, once again, are proving to be the chief beneficiaries of about just every possible advantage that exists in the 21st Century!
*#* *Name Age Time* Club *Meet
*1* *Wood, Larry W 56 *10:16.54* TXLA *USMS 2010 Summer National Championships
*2* *Guadagni, Peter M 55 *10:22.64* WCM *USMS 2010 Summer National Championships
*3* *Martin, Jack R 59 *10:25.41* 1776 *USMS 2010 Summer National Championships
*4* *Wasserman, Neil R 55 *10:41.26* O*H* *Cleveland State University LCM
*5* *Hale, Dave 55 *10:52.61* SRM *Pacific Masters Long Course Championships
*6* *Wright, Robert E 56 *10:55.70* DOC *34th Lakeside Masters Long Course Invitational
*7* *Thompson, Frank L 59 *11:04.24* MICH *34th Lakeside Masters Long Course Invitational
*8* *Penn, William J 59 *11:06.07* PNA *2010 Northwest Zone LCM
*9* *Ditolla, Robert J 56 *11:08.65* ARIZ *2010 AZ Masters LCM State Championship
*10* *Leonard, Dan P 56 *11:10.48* SCAQ *FAST Masters LCM Regional and Zone Championships
*#* *Name Age Time* Club *Meet
*1* *Mann, Michael T 55 *9:00.09* CMS *Conejo Simi Aquatics LCM Regional and Zone Champs
*2* *Townsend, R Scott 56 *9:42.16* LVM *Conejo Simi Aquatics LCM Regional and Zone Champs
*3* *Gandee, Brad 55 *9:57.82* GMUP *2009 USMS National Long Course Championships
*4* *Wood, Larry W 55 *10:00.88* TXLA *South Central Zone Long Course Championships
*5* *Clemmons, Jim 59 *10:02.32* MAM *2009 Pacific Masters Long Course Swimming Championships
*6* *Bell, Alan 59 *10:03.20* PNA *Gil Young Memorial LCM Meet/Northwest Zone Long Course Meters Meet
*7* *Dodson, Phil L 56 *10:04.87* IM *2009 USMS National Long Course Championships
*8* *Martin, Jack R 58 *10:11.61* 1776 *2009 USMS National Long Course Championships
*9* *Penn, William J 58 *10:16.08* PNA *Gil Young Memorial LCM Meet/Northwest Zone Long Course Meters Meet
*10* *Nunnelly, John N 56 *10:18.04* NEM *Bay State Games
#* *Name Age Time* Club *Meet
*1* *Krattli, Caroline 48 *10:15.24* SDSM *USMS 2010 Summer National Championships
*2* *Welting, Laureen K 45 *10:17.33* TOC *USMS 2010 Summer National Championships
*3* *Dantzler, Amy L 46 *10:21.02* WH2O *FAST Masters LCM Regional and Zone Championships
*4* *Bennett, Ellen K 47 *10:27.32* SYSM *Bumpy Jones International Classic & Dixie Zone LCM Championships
*5* *Matherne, Susan K 48 *10:30.59* RICE *FCST Luck of the Draw
*6* *Parker Palace, Kelly 49 *10:31.27* UNAT *2010 New England LMSC LCM Championships
*7* *Shuck, Susie 45 *10:32.32* ISF *34th Lakeside Masters Long Course Invitational
*8* *Ramnath, Fernette P 45 *10:34.02* SYSM *USMS 2010 Summer National Championships
*9* *Milanese, Barbara A 48 *10:42.63* GOLD *5th Annual June Krauser Summer Splash
*10* *Schickore, Jutta 46 *10:51.33* DOC *34th Lakeside Masters Long Course Invitational
*#* *Name Age Time* Club *Meet
*1* *Curran, Margee M 48 *9:47.56* WCM *2009 Pacific Masters Long Course Swimming Championships
*2* *Elias-Williams, Maria L 45 *10:00.40* GSMS *2009 USMS National Long Course Championships
*3* *Petersen, Charlotte 45 *10:18.31* SPM *2009 St. Pete Masters Long Course Swimming Championships
*4* *Swanson, Vibeke L 48 *10:38.78* 1776 *2009 Merryman LCM Swim Meet
*5* *Castro, Leticia 49 *11:03.98* GOLD *JK Summer Splash-Dixie Zone Championship
*6* *Fitzgerald, Kimberly H 49 *11:09.58* WMAC *Wisconsin Badger State Games
*7* *Ciampa, Cindy 49 *11:15.52* SKY *2009 SwimLouisville.com Masters Invitational
*8* *Gregory, Ellen D 45 *11:21.90* ISF *2009 USMS National Long Course Championships
*9* *DeLozier, Anna R 46 *11:23.77* ARIZ *Arizona Long Course State Meet
*10* *Uecker, Anne 49 *11:30.50* MESC *NE LCM Championship
I understand this is meant to be quick and dirty, but I am pretty sure the TT times have been getting faster over the years, independently (hopefully) of the suits. So analysis of a longer time-series may be needed to see how much of the decrease since 2006 is attributable to the suits. The observed differences are probably more along the lines of an upper value.
I would not be at all surprised if, in masters, butterfly is the stroke most affected by the (lack of) suits.
I understand this is meant to be quick and dirty, but I am pretty sure the TT times have been getting faster over the years, independently (hopefully) of the suits. So analysis of a longer time-series may be needed to see how much of the decrease since 2006 is attributable to the suits. The observed differences are probably more along the lines of an upper value.
A significant reason that records/TT keep getting faster is that swimmers who were faster in their youths than the swimmers who preceeded them keep aging up in masters. This is a fact regardless of the suits
I understand this is meant to be quick and dirty, but I am pretty sure the TT times have been getting faster over the years, independently (hopefully) of the suits. So analysis of a longer time-series may be needed to see how much of the decrease since 2006 is attributable to the suits. The observed differences are probably more along the lines of an upper value.
A significant reason that records/TT keep getting faster is that swimmers who were faster in their youths than the swimmers who preceeded them keep aging up in masters. This is a fact regardless of the suits
BINGO! And then there are folks like you, Rich, who don't get slower, even as they age! Congrats for a great year!
A significant reason that records/TT keep getting faster is that swimmers who were faster in their youths than the swimmers who preceeded them keep aging up in masters. This is a fact regardless of the suits
Perhaps, but I don't like to disrespect my elders. :)
Another reason is that there are simply more people swimming masters now than before, and possibly starting earlier. When you have more people, there is a higher likelihood of having 1 or more "superfast" types in the age group like a Dennis Baker or a Mike Ross. Or a Rich Abrahams!
I agree, times surely do get faster every year even without suits. It would be pretty easy to check whether 3% decrease over 4 years is faster than the usual rate of change, but I haven't done so.
Another way to check would be to compare the same peoples' times, i.e., Rich Abrahams in a B70 vs. Rich Abrahams four years ago in whatever he wore then.
To counter for the "ravages" of age, which appear not to apply to Rich, you could look at the Finnish formula http://n3times.com/swimtimes/ to come up with some estimate of natural decline (which shouldn't be blamed on the suit change.)
To counter for the "ravages" of age, which appear not to apply to Rich, you could look at the Finnish formula http://n3times.com/swimtimes/ to come up with some estimate of natural decline (which shouldn't be blamed on the suit change.)
The Finnish formula is only for 3 events, unfortunately (and I'm not sure if it is LCM or SCM)...you can use the Virginia calculator too for any event or course.
The problem is that, if it is true that the younger swimmers are -- relatively speaking -- better than the older (something that is hard to test), then there is bias in corrections from both of those formulas.
The Finnish formula is only for 3 events, unfortunately (and I'm not sure if it is LCM or SCM)...you can use the Virginia calculator too for any event or course.
The problem is that, if it is true that the younger swimmers are -- relatively speaking -- better than the older (something that is hard to test), then there is bias in corrections from both of those formulas.
How much does the Virginia calculator suggest you will slow down over your 5 year age group? And is there an age group where you slow down more than others?
How much does the Virginia calculator suggest you will slow down over your 5 year age group? And is there an age group where you slow down more than others?
It depends on the gender, event and course. But in all cases an exponential curve gave a good fit to the data, which implies the there is a steady and constant relative age-related degradation in performance in a given gender/event/course combination (eg, a loss of 1% per year in the men's 100 LCM fly...I made that number up, though).
I have a long list of things I would like to do to update the calculator, first and foremost to update the fits to the most recent record data (the current calculator is about 2-3 years out of date). One of the things I want to do is get interpretations like you are asking, but I haven't had the time yet and probably won't anytime soon...maybe over Thanksgiving/Xmas this year.
*****
Note added in edit: although I used an exponential fit to USMS/FINA records as the basis for the ratings calculator, I forgot there is an offset term as well. That means the percent increase will NOT be constant with age. So you can get a feel for the magnitudes, I added the yearly percent increase (which is still specific to gender/event/course but does not depend on the rating) to the predictions for Jim's 200 free in my later post.
I understand this is meant to be quick and dirty, but I am pretty sure the TT times have been getting faster over the years, independently (hopefully) of the suits.
I agree, times surely do get faster every year even without suits. It would be pretty easy to check whether 3% decrease over 4 years is faster than the usual rate of change, but I haven't done so.
