Participation rates for competition in Running vs. Swimming

Having been a swimmer from the age of 8, and having picked up running in my mid 30s (and maintained it only for about 5 years, until my knees and ankles gave up), I would venture to say that you may be way, way off. With a decent coach, a commitment to some reasonable training, and enough time (i.e. a year), you will almost certainly break 1:00 for 100y free. But unless you have the build of a runner (which may be a contra-indication for swimming, i.e. strong legs and very little upper body mass (or strength)), it will take quite some time to get yourself in a position to knock out 26 consecutive miles at a pace of less than 7:40 per mile. Running two miles on the local track is most definitely not the same as running 26 miles on undulating pavement. Also, don't forget that the first 5-10k is walked/run in a crowd, at a pace slower than your target - so you have to make up for that from then on... Unless you want to try both - and maybe set some test milestones for yourself halfway into the training (say, a 100y under 1:06 and a 10k under 45 minutes) - I'd stick with the swimming goal. :2cents: The two-miler I'm referring to was a road race, and yeah, I had to leap a couple of potholes and dodge a lot of people - and one Lhaso Apso - early on. I'm not going to argue against my own potential, but I note from the USMS database that 218 men 50-54 swam 100 yards freestyle under a minute anywhere anytime at a USMS meet in the past year. This year, 1,870 men 50-54 ran the Boston Marathon, meaning all of them ran a 3:35 marathon in the previous year. Put another way, I know people who have run the Boston Marathon. They weren't jocks in high school, they haven't been running competitively since they were kids. They set it as a goal and they did it. Of the 218 fast swimmers, how many did something similar? How many weren't swimmers in their youth but at middle age just up and decided to swim 100 yards under a minute, then trained toward that goal and hit it? It has happened, but I really don't know how frequently. I think some people who swim competitively underestimate how difficult it is to swim really fast. It's quite difficult, and those who can do it should be quite proud of their accomplishment and not assume that anyone with a little drive could do the same thing. As for my case, it's purely hypothetical. I used to run, but I find it boring, frankly, so have no interest in running a marathon. I'd rather swim.

Having been a swimmer from the age of 8, and having picked up running in my mid 30s (and maintained it only for about 5 years, until my knees and ankles gave up), I would venture to say that you may be way, way off. With a decent coach, a commitment to some reasonable training, and enough time (i.e. a year), you will almost certainly break 1:00 for 100y free. But unless you have the build of a runner (which may be a contra-indication for swimming, i.e. strong legs and very little upper body mass (or strength)), it will take quite some time to get yourself in a position to knock out 26 consecutive miles at a pace of less than 7:40 per mile. Running two miles on the local track is most definitely not the same as running 26 miles on undulating pavement. Also, don't forget that the first 5-10k is walked/run in a crowd, at a pace slower than your target - so you have to make up for that from then on... Unless you want to try both - and maybe set some test milestones for yourself halfway into the training (say, a 100y under 1:06 and a 10k under 45 minutes) - I'd stick with the swimming goal. :2cents: The two-miler I'm referring to was a road race, and yeah, I had to leap a couple of potholes and dodge a lot of people - and one Lhaso Apso - early on. I'm not going to argue against my own potential, but I note from the USMS database that 218 men 50-54 swam 100 yards freestyle under a minute anywhere anytime at a USMS meet in the past year. This year, 1,870 men 50-54 ran the Boston Marathon, meaning all of them ran a 3:35 marathon in the previous year. Put another way, I know people who have run the Boston Marathon. They weren't jocks in high school, they haven't been running competitively since they were kids. They set it as a goal and they did it. Of the 218 fast swimmers, how many did something similar? How many weren't swimmers in their youth but at middle age just up and decided to swim 100 yards under a minute, then trained toward that goal and hit it? It has happened, but I really don't know how frequently. I think some people who swim competitively underestimate how difficult it is to swim really fast. It's quite difficult, and those who can do it should be quite proud of their accomplishment and not assume that anyone with a little drive could do the same thing. As for my case, it's purely hypothetical. I used to run, but I find it boring, frankly, so have no interest in running a marathon. I'd rather swim.