I have been following some the FINA suit talk going on right now and it seems quite possible that they may go back to all textile suits - pre 2008 starting next year. If that happens, how long will some of these records stand ?
Tom Jager did a 21.8 in 1990 ... Popov dropped it to 21.64 in a questionable race ... sub 21 may take 30+ years.
J. Skinner went 49.44 in 1976 --Biondi did a 48.4 in 1988 Hoogenbaand went 47.8 in 2000 .... sub 47 would take another 25 years.
Former Member
It is an interesting theory. I have no idea if it is correct, but I do believe the straight-arm free sprint pre-dates the LZR and other suits (though it certainly wasn't as popular as now). I don't know about the stroke fad, these things can come and go...but I think that the trend towards bigger/stronger sprinters will continue.
As far as being a "skeptic," it isn't only a matter of the effectiveness of the suits. I just think that once certain times have been achieved, aided or not, then psychologically it is easier to achieve them again, even unaided. How long it takes depends on how effective the suits were, I guess.
Two theories proposed here, I think they are both plausible. One could point to Bernard's 46 prelims swim, 47 mid finals swim and argue against the second theory, but as you have pointed out it is pretty easy to cherry-pick statistics...
That is actually not quite true -- out of that era, (in my mind) 5 records truly stand out -- and 4 of those were set by female American swimmers. Meagher's fly records (100 and 200), Janet Evans 400 and 800 Free, and the 4:36 in the 400 IM by Schneider. So even then the Americans were on par with the East Germans (at least in the 80s) -- unless of course the Americans were assisting in the same way as the East-Germans - which I have never really heard about.
If they go back to the pre 2008 suits, nobody will even approach 21 seconds for a 20 years + --- I bet they would start changing the records back or keep 2 sets. The rate of improvement in Freestyle is simply not that great any more.
Which records in your mind stand out in the current era? All you mention are the 50 & 100 free.
I don't think it will take 20-30 years for most records, though in any set of WRs there will always be a small number of durable ones. Think about what the WRs looked like 25 years ago compared to now. But obviously only time will tell.
Freestyle hasn't improved that much? I dunno, most of the current crop of sprinters look incredibly huge/powerful to me. Popov, Jaeger and Biondi all look like twigs by comparison.
