I have been following some the FINA suit talk going on right now and it seems quite possible that they may go back to all textile suits - pre 2008 starting next year. If that happens, how long will some of these records stand ?
Tom Jager did a 21.8 in 1990 ... Popov dropped it to 21.64 in a questionable race ... sub 21 may take 30+ years.
J. Skinner went 49.44 in 1976 --Biondi did a 48.4 in 1988 Hoogenbaand went 47.8 in 2000 .... sub 47 would take another 25 years.
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It is an interesting theory. I have no idea if it is correct, but I do believe the straight-arm free sprint pre-dates the LZR and other suits (though it certainly wasn't as popular as now). I don't know about the stroke fad, these things can come and go...but I think that the trend towards bigger/stronger sprinters will continue.
As far as being a "skeptic," it isn't only a matter of the effectiveness of the suits. I just think that once certain times have been achieved, aided or not, then psychologically it is easier to achieve them again, even unaided. How long it takes depends on how effective the suits were, I guess.
Two theories proposed here, I think they are both plausible. One could point to Bernard's 46 prelims swim, 47 mid finals swim and argue against the second theory, but as you have pointed out it is pretty easy to cherry-pick statistics...
It is an interesting theory. I have no idea if it is correct, but I do believe the straight-arm free sprint pre-dates the LZR and other suits (though it certainly wasn't as popular as now). I don't know about the stroke fad, these things can come and go...but I think that the trend towards bigger/stronger sprinters will continue.
As far as being a "skeptic," it isn't only a matter of the effectiveness of the suits. I just think that once certain times have been achieved, aided or not, then psychologically it is easier to achieve them again, even unaided. How long it takes depends on how effective the suits were, I guess.
Two theories proposed here, I think they are both plausible. One could point to Bernard's 46 prelims swim, 47 mid finals swim and argue against the second theory, but as you have pointed out it is pretty easy to cherry-pick statistics...
