Is there any chance those crazy Russians will upset the US tomorrow in the 800 Free relay ? The top 2 guys are certainly right there -- they had a blistering 400 Free relay and the Russians often come through with great relay swims (as do the Americans ...) ?
I don't think so. I think they had more depth in there 400 Free Relay swimmers than they do in there 800 Free Relay swimmers. You are correct that there top 2 guys are very close to our top 2 guys. Izotov improved his 200 Free time from Beijing from a 1:45. 85 to a 1:43.90 and Lobintsev improved his time from a 1:46.64 to a 1:45.31 this year. Sukhorukov has gone 1:44.65 in a relay but has not swam as well as last year. There 4th guy Lagunov has gone 1:46.46.
With Phelps at 1:43.22 and Walters at 1:44.95 gun starts, I give the those 2 legs about 1.25 advantage and that is being very conservative. For them to have a chance to win they would have to go 6:58 and to get there they would need a 1:43 and 3 guys in the 1:45 for splits. It very possible they will do that but I think the USA will go 6:55 tomorrow for a 3 second improvement from Beijing.
It will be interesting to see if Ryan Lochte will swim the morning preliminary heats. Traditionally the 3rd - 6th place swimmers from trials swim with the 1st and 2nd swimming finals only. But because of the 200 Back final tomorrow night, I think the coaches will pass on him in the morning and swim, Walters, Berens, Tarwater, and Vanderkaay. They will take the fastest swimmers out of these 4 plus what they think Ryan could do and those will be the swimmers that swim with Phelps in the final.
With the way Ryan has been swimming, I think he will be on the relay in the finals. My hunch is that VDK, Berens, and Walters will battle it out for the last 2 spots. Tarwater would have to beat all of them to make it. They might have the same relay as last year. I think all of these swimmers are swimming faster than last year and you could actually have 3 swimmers in a LZR (Phelps, VDK, Lochte) and one swimmer in a Jacked. Even with this I give the USA a 2 second advantage to beat the Russians.
At the 2008 Olympics, the Russians were 5.14 seconds behind at 7:03.70 and they will see improvement in the 6:58 range. USA went 6:58.56 in Beijing and I can see a 2 to 3 second improvement for a new World Record.
Is there any chance those crazy Russians will upset the US tomorrow in the 800 Free relay ? The top 2 guys are certainly right there -- they had a blistering 400 Free relay and the Russians often come through with great relay swims (as do the Americans ...) ?
I don't think so. I think they had more depth in there 400 Free Relay swimmers than they do in there 800 Free Relay swimmers. You are correct that there top 2 guys are very close to our top 2 guys. Izotov improved his 200 Free time from Beijing from a 1:45. 85 to a 1:43.90 and Lobintsev improved his time from a 1:46.64 to a 1:45.31 this year. Sukhorukov has gone 1:44.65 in a relay but has not swam as well as last year. There 4th guy Lagunov has gone 1:46.46.
With Phelps at 1:43.22 and Walters at 1:44.95 gun starts, I give the those 2 legs about 1.25 advantage and that is being very conservative. For them to have a chance to win they would have to go 6:58 and to get there they would need a 1:43 and 3 guys in the 1:45 for splits. It very possible they will do that but I think the USA will go 6:55 tomorrow for a 3 second improvement from Beijing.
It will be interesting to see if Ryan Lochte will swim the morning preliminary heats. Traditionally the 3rd - 6th place swimmers from trials swim with the 1st and 2nd swimming finals only. But because of the 200 Back final tomorrow night, I think the coaches will pass on him in the morning and swim, Walters, Berens, Tarwater, and Vanderkaay. They will take the fastest swimmers out of these 4 plus what they think Ryan could do and those will be the swimmers that swim with Phelps in the final.
With the way Ryan has been swimming, I think he will be on the relay in the finals. My hunch is that VDK, Berens, and Walters will battle it out for the last 2 spots. Tarwater would have to beat all of them to make it. They might have the same relay as last year. I think all of these swimmers are swimming faster than last year and you could actually have 3 swimmers in a LZR (Phelps, VDK, Lochte) and one swimmer in a Jacked. Even with this I give the USA a 2 second advantage to beat the Russians.
At the 2008 Olympics, the Russians were 5.14 seconds behind at 7:03.70 and they will see improvement in the 6:58 range. USA went 6:58.56 in Beijing and I can see a 2 to 3 second improvement for a new World Record.
