Men's 400 Free Relay

Not questioning the last reply but would like to see the swimmer's times for US and France. thanks From Swimnews.com's 2008 rankings.... USA: 47.58 LEZAK, Jason 47.78 WEBER-GALE, Garrett 47.92 PHELPS, Michael 48.29 BRUNELLI, Nicholas (Not at the Games) 48.35 JONES, Cullen 48.46 ADRIAN, Nathan 48.53 GREVERS, Matthew 48.59 WILDMAN-TOBRINER, Ben France: 47.50 BERNARD, Alain 48.02 GILOT, Fabien 48.38 LEVEAUX, Amaury 48.52 BOUSQUET, Frederick 48.95 MALLET, Gregory 48.96 STEIMETZ, Boris It's going to be one heck of a race!

I am predicting a French win. I expect one or more of the Americans to falter on their legs, plus the French pushed that world record unshaved earlier in the year and will be pumped up.

I picked France, but I think it will be a dogfight.

My "math" was off. The sum of the 4 fastest flat start USA vs. France via the World rankings in FINA is 191.63 secs for the USA vs. 192.42 for France. The difference is .79 secs. I still think the USA will take command of this race. I think Phelps will have huge motivation to kick the relay off and the rest will be history.

Unshaved in LZRs? Is it that much of difference anymore? Why do you think an American will falter (it would have to be in finals)? Phelps won't. Lezak didn't falter at the WCs. Neither did Jones. Neil Walker isn't on the relay anymore. I don't see Nathan in finals unless he blazes in prelims. They'll pick a veteran, right? As much as I hate to diss a fellow UCSB alum, Lezak's the wild card and the one most likely to lose his legs...yes he's VERY fast...but you don't always know what your going to get...unlike the other guys he trains mostly alone and I think his conditioning for multiple races is suspect. I will say this, he does tend to swim best on relays. Also...remember his "cruising" prelims last go around and not making it into finals? Classic Lezak.

I'm actually looking for Phelps to come within a tenth of the world record here. Americans win by at least 1/2 a second, but it will be a GREAT race.

I am predicting a French win. I expect one or more of the Americans to falter on their legs, plus the French pushed that world record unshaved earlier in the year and will be pumped up. Unshaved in LZRs? Is it that much of difference anymore? Why do you think an American will falter (it would have to be in finals)? Phelps won't. Lezak didn't falter at the WCs. Neither did Jones. Neil Walker isn't on the relay anymore. I don't see Nathan in finals unless he blazes in prelims. They'll pick a veteran, right?

I was worried about Lezak at Trials. I wasn't sure he would have it in him. Would he swim like Neil Walker? Just past his best? Lezak was superb in the 100. The 4 x 100 comes early in Beijing. The prelims are Sunday and finals Monday. No American except Phelps will have an individual race before prelims of the relay. So Lezak and the rest of the possible swimmers should be fresh. Lezak swam well when they set the WR - as did Cullen and Phelps. My biggest worry about Lezak is that he 100% peaked for trials. He had a superb prelim swim (22.8/24.7 = 47.5)..and he survived in finals with a solid swim but much slower coming home (22.8/25.2)....he also commented on how much the prelim swim had taken it's toll on him. The good news as you said is that the relay final is his first swim...thankfully he won't have to swim it in prelims...the bigger concern is how he'll hold on for up to 3 more 100's? Wild card.

I think some people are expecting the American's to repeat a lot of their trials preformances. That doesn't always happen. Phelps and Lezak are the only 2 with Olympic experience. I think the race will be close, but I don't think the US will win.

I am hoping that the US will win, but my guess is that the French will take this. Why ? Leveaux - don't know him, never seen him swim, but anybody able to swim 21.38 and 1:46, must be able to swim 47.5 The South Africans are a little bit of a wild card - they don't have the top times to show - I think they will battle AUS for Bronze.