Maybe I expected too much, but I am a little disappointed in the US trials overall. Historically, the US swimmer will not improve between Trials and the Games (that is of course on average) and I really only see the Usual Suspects minus a few going for medals.
Men's Sprint Free -- Phelps in the 200 Free, nothing else looks really great.
Men's Distance -- Maybe the 1500 will be better- but no more than a 3rd in the 400.
Men's *** -- Kosuke is going to double, plus there is a whole bunch of people who will go under a minute and sub 2:10. Hansen was already in tears at Trials.
Men's Back -- no secret that I firmly believe in the "power of the new suits". If Peirsol will not wear a fullbody LZR, he is going to loose both Backstrokes. The Japanese kid just dropped 2 seconds from his trials and he was not even rested.
Men's Fly -- Phelps - of course -- maybe Crocker has been doing a Peirsol, so far, but he has not looked good. Stoval is going to have a hell of a time to repeat his amazing swims.
Mens IM - Lochte and Phelps seem like a lock
Womens Free - the 800, plus maybe a medal in the 400. We will see about the 50, but nothing more than a third.
Womens *** - Soni may be able to pull of a shocker in the 200 - but I am not even sure they will final in the 100
Womens Back - Coughlin -- maybe, there is now a dozen swimmers under a minute. Coventry seemed to be in amazing form
Womens Fly - they will have a hard time to final
Womens IM - that looks strong, but no locks either.
Swimmers who are not having great trials even though they made it: Vanderkaay - his 100 was 1/2 second off and all his times are the same as leading up (he swims well unrested, but he may be able to improve)
Hoff - here 100 Free was a full second slower than her best - and she was going for the relay
Hansen - obvious
Lochte - the armchair quarterback that is always smarter afterwards. Either him or his coach have been doing a terrible job with his race management. This is the trials - first and second are the same. There was absolutely no reason for him to put in that effort on the last 100 in the 400 IM. Not with the program he had left - he was over 7 seconds ahead of 3rd place. Then he swims prelims and Semis on the 200 Free -- why not drop the 1:45 in the morning and scratch the rest (like Phelps in the 100). He would have been much fresher for the 100 Back. Then he swims the semis in the 100 Free - but not the final ? What will that do - he is not going to be able to swim the 4x100 prelims with that - there are too many swimmers for that. He lost out on 3 potential medals with his race management (100 back / and both 400 relays).
About Lochte's race management: I don't know if I agree with you about the 400IM -- he has to feel pretty positive about beating the old record and pushing Phelps so strongly. And psychology is so important in this game.
But I WAS surprised he pushed the 200 back so hard. He wasn't going to have any trouble getting 2nd and that 200IM was coming up. What a brutal double. It sure IS easy to armchair-quarterback: he came so very close to winning both races, and if he had we would all be singing very different tunes.
But about that double: it is probably a good thing to duplicate the effort he is planning to give at the Olympics. Perhaps the 200 back is more important to him -- or he feels his chances at gold are better -- and the 200IM is just tacked on there to get what he can.
As for the rest, I don't really know enough about international swimming to argue with what you say. But I'll make the observation that your standards are pretty high if you are already discounting the chances of two people who just set new WRs in their events (Piersol and Coughlin) and if you say that another new WR holder (Hoff) is not having such a good meet!
Probably the biggest surprise to me...was that there weren't more BIG surprises. There were quite a few mild upsets, but -- as you say -- mostly the usual suspects. I almost liked it better when swimmers would retire after college and we would get a whole new crop of fresh faces! I was amazed at the number of times when a reigning or very recent NCAA champion was not even expected to contend seriously for a spot on the team.
You know, despite the world records that have been set, I think the 'speed' of the pool in Omaha is a little suspect. It seems to me in the shorter races in finals, where everyone is bunched up, the times have been slower. In most cases in these events the fastest times have NOT been recorded in finals when you'd expect them to be. Other than the 100 back I think the events where new WRs have been set have been done in conditions where the leader was way out in front of the field (or had one other person challenging them).
One of my coaches went down for the Mutual of Omaha meet a few weeks back and he mentioned there was lots of wave action during the shorter races, particularly the men's sprints. I think he may have made an important observation.
So I don't know if this is a huge factor, but if the Olympic pool is faster it might bode well for the U.S. swimmers swimming faster in Beijing. I guess we'll see.
That seems to happen both at trials and during the finals of the Olympics. Let's face it all these swimmers care about is getting first or second in finals. VERY few can think WR to boot and they've done that.
I think as time goes on and sponsorships continue we will see less and less upsets. The pros will continue to dominate with their speed, experience and ability to train.
I wouldn't count on the men in the sprints (and certainly not the women) setting world records in trials is one thing do it to win the Olympics is entirely different. It's all about getting to the wall first the times at that point are completely irrelevant.
I have a hard time believing that Phelps, Lochte, Crocker, Hansen, Piersol, Coughlin & Hoff are fully rested. These swimmers have been swimming very fast for the last 18 months on only a few days rest at each meet. I'm betting there's a lot more in the tank.
On the other hand if that is the case than it was a big time mistake for Hansen.
I think the men will win all 3 relays. The women will win the 4 x 100 free & 4 x 200 free and be 2nd in the medley to Australia.
Lochte will win at least one gold, possibly 3.
I think that what people tend to forget (esp. over-hyping tv reporters), is how much the Olympics can turn into simply the medal chase rather than the world record chase esp. if environmental and other conditions prove adverse. Sure, Phelps etc. may well set world records in August, but the gold rush is the immediate concern.
I think they will be lucky to win 3 relays combined. I don't see the women winning either Free relay and I don't think the Men will win the 400 Free relay.
What would be Lochte's 3rd Gold ? 200 Back + 4x2 + taking down Phelps ??
Hoch, $5 per relay and Lochte tales the 200IM, 400IM & 200 back...$5 on each. You can pay me at Long Beach!
I think the men will win all 3 relays. The women will win the 4 x 100 free & 4 x 200 free and be 2nd in the medley to Australia.
I think they will be lucky to win 3 relays combined. I don't see the women winning either Free relay and I don't think the Men will win the 400 Free relay.
What would be Lochte's 3rd Gold ? 200 Back + 4x2 + taking down Phelps ??
I have a hard time believing that Phelps, Lochte, Crocker, Hansen, Piersol, Coughlin & Hoff are fully rested. These swimmers have been swimming very fast for the last 18 months on only a few days rest at each meet. I'm betting there's a lot more in the tank.
On the other hand if that is the case than it was a big time mistake for Hansen.
I think the men will win all 3 relays. The women will win the 4 x 100 free & 4 x 200 free and be 2nd in the medley to Australia.
Lochte will win at least one gold, possibly 3.
One never knows for sure, but based upon the interview on FloSwimming with Brendan Hansen, I don't think he had anything left in the tank at the finish. He did say that perhaps he had taught his teammates a little too much about swimming fast breaststroke in the past few months.
I won't even bother to guess who will win any relays in Beijing.
The Olympics is a whole 'nother ball of wax though - the pressure, the atmosphere, etc. typically don't produce a ton of WRs. It's all about the race and not about the time. We'll see.
Hardy is amazing -to excel like she does at both BR and sprint Free is just unreal. I think Jendrick making cuts in the 50 free was impressive and a good gage of how unreal Hardy is. She is definitely underrated.
I remember in an interview with Eddie Reese they asked him who likes to lose the least ... he is famous for stating that what sets the top guys apart is not their love of winning but their hatred of losing ... nonetheless, Eddie said of "the big 3" he said Peirsol hates losing the most. I would not count him out. He knows how to conserve his energy and then deliver a huge performance when he needs to. I think he repeats his 3 golds.
